Volume 9 Issue 5
. 
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering  > 2009  >  9(5): 88-93
Next Previous
LI Gang, HUANG Tong-yuan, YAN He, HUANG Xi-yue. Grey residual error model of highway traffic accident forecast[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(5): 88-93. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.05.016
Citation: LI Gang, HUANG Tong-yuan, YAN He, HUANG Xi-yue. Grey residual error model of highway traffic accident forecast[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(5): 88-93. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.05.016
shu

Grey residual error model of highway traffic accident forecast

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.05.016
  • 1.

    School of Computer Science and Engineering, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400050, China

  • 2.

    School of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    LI Gang(1968-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-23-68666246, thatsez@163.com

  • Received Date: 2009-06-01
  • Publish Date: 2009-10-25
    Abstract
  • Grey residual error model (GREM) was proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of highway traffic accidents with high randomicity. GREM was used to depict the accident prediction values piecewise with the linear superposition of multiple exponential functions, and it overcomed the shortcomings of grey model(GM). GM was only able to describe the monotonous change process and only could be used to estimate the sequences consistent with obvious exponential law. The manifold factors affecting GREM were analyzed and concluded in detail, including amending objects, data selection, data pretreatment and amending methods. Then, 4 practical GREMs were summed up. Analysis result indicates that in comparison with GM, all GREMs' predicting errors reduce by 70%- 80%, and the one modeled by residual error directly and restored only one time has low complexity and its predicting error is less than 5%.

     

    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(19)
  • [1]
    WANG Jian-jun, WANG Jun-feng, BI Ming-tao. Characteristics of traffic accidents on highway and expressway[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2005, 25(3): 66-69. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2005.03.016
    [2]
    LI Jin-long, SUN Wan-hua. Cause analysis of traffic accidents on express highway and study on their countermeasures[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2005, 15(1): 59-62. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2005.01.014
    [3]
    ZHOU Qian, LU Hua-pu, XU Wei. Laws and models of traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(4): 112-115. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.04.025
    [4]
    QIAO Xiang-ming, XU An, SHU Wei. Developing tendency forecast of road traffic accident in China[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2004.06.016
    [5]
    LEE C C, WAN T J, KUO C Y, et al. Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2007, 132(1/3): 351-364.
    [6]
    LIN C B, SU S F, HSU Y T. High-precision forecast using grey models[J]. International Journal of Systems Science, 2001, 32(5): 609-619. doi: 10.1080/00207720120323
    [7]
    WANG Fu-jian, LI Tie-qiang, YU Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst predictive model of road traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.01.026
    [8]
    HAN Wen-tao, ZHANG Qian, JIA An-min. Study on the forecast model of road accident with gray theory[J]. Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology: Natural Science Edition, 2005, 37(3): 375-377. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7930.2005.03.016
    [9]
    SU Liang, SHAO Dong, TANG Bo-ming, et al. Application of gray theory in road accident forecast[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University: Natural Science, 2008, 27(3): 446-448. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CQJT200803028.htm
    [10]
    ZHOU Wei-xin. Study on the forecast model of traffic accidents with grey theory[J]. Journal of Xi'an Highway University, 2000, 20(2): 73-75. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200002023.htm
    [11]
    LIU Zhao-hui, WANG Chao, XU Hong-guo. Grey prediction model for road traffic accident and its application research[J]. Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology, 2006, 29(4): 42-44, 54. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CGJM200604012.htm
    [12]
    MA Zhuang-lin, SHAO Chun-fu, LI Xia, et al. Forecasting grey model of traffic accidents based on variable parameter value rolling[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 29(4): 87-90, 96. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200904018.htm
    [13]
    XU Guo-xing, LI Xian-sheng, LIN Qing-feng, et al. Gray model GM(1, 1)for forecast of traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Shandong University of Technology: Science and Technology, 2005, 19(6): 45-49. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDGC200506011.htm
    [14]
    LIUShu-huan, JIAO Bao-cong. The construction and application of grey forecast model in road traffic accident of Beijing[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2009, 39(9): 115-122. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SSJS200909019.htm
    [15]
    FU Rui, GUO Ying-shi, YUAN Wei, et al. Research on relation of traffic accident rate and longitudinal parameters in continuous downgrade road[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2009, 22(3): 101-106. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200903017.htm
    [16]
    WANG Fu-jian, WEI Xiao-dong, ZHANG He-sheng, et al. Curve illusion resulted from combination of horizontal and vertical curves and its influence on traffic accidents[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2009, 22(3): 40-44. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200903007.htm
    [17]
    ZHANG Sheng-rui, MA Zhuang-lin, XU Jing-cui. Traffic accidents distribution law in freeway tunnel[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2008, 28(4): 74-78. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200804020.htm
    [18]
    XU Hong-guo, DU Xue-jing, XU Yan, et al. Vehicles' crashing accident reconstruction model base on lamp debris distribution field[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2008, 28(2): 80-83. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200802019.htm
    [19]
    YUAN Wei, CHEN Bin, GUO Ying-shi, et al. China expressway accident detection model and its laws based on multi-layer feed-back network[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2007, 27(5): 89-93, 126. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200705021.htm
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By

Catalog

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML

    Article Metrics

    Article views (892) PDF downloads(520) Cited by()
    Related

    Copyright《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering》编辑部陕ICP备05001904号-1

    Address ：Editorial Department of Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Chang 'an University, Middle Section of South Second Ring Road, Xi 'an, Shaanxi（710064） Tel：029-82334388 Email：jygc@chd.edu.cn

    All visit:Today's visit:

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd    

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return