Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information
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摘要: 为了评价交通事故再现分析结果的可信性, 将高阶矩技术、随机摄动法和Edgeworth级数与交通事故再现分析技术相结合, 提出了交通事故再现可靠性分析方法, 给出了再现分析结果的置信度和置信区间。针对具有冗余信息的交通事故再现分析, 应用主观赋权法、可靠性分析技术和优化求解技术, 提出了冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法。最后通过实际交通事故案例进行了事故再现分析。研究结果表明: 该方法在考虑各基本因素客观不确定性的基础上同时结合了专家经验, 与各基本再现分析模型计算结果相比, 其均值趋于各基本再现分析模型的中间值, 其变化范围(标准差) 最小, 再现分析结果更具科学性和准确性。Abstract: In order to estimate the creditability of traffic accident reconstruction analysis, a reconstruction reliability analysis method was put forward which combined high-order moment technology, probabilistic perturbation method, Edgeworth series and reconstruction analysis technology.The confidence interval and confidence of reconstruction analysis result were obtained as the estimate indexes of the creditability.For traffic accident reconstruction reliability analysis with redundant information, a comprehensive-model method was proposed through integrating subjective weighting method, reliability analysis technology and optimization technology.A practical traffic accident case was investigated to verify the method's feasibility and validity.Study result indicates that the mean calculated by comprehensive-model method tends to the intermediate value of basic reconstruction analysis models, and the change range is minimum.So the reconstruction analysis result is more precise and scientific by using comprehensive-model method because of considering the intrinsical uncertainty influence of basic factors and expert experiences.
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表 1 基本随机参数及其统计特征值
Table 1. Basic random parameters and statistic eigenvalues
随机参数 均值 标准差 三阶中心矩 四阶中心矩 Lcz/m 12.80 0.12 0 6.40×10-4 Lzh/m 13.65 0.16 0 1.82×10-3 Lrp/m 20.40 0.23 0 8.99×10-3 Lrc/m 12.40 0.23 0 9.18×10-3 Lsp/m 12.26 0.31 0 2.77×10-2 Lsz/m 19.43 0.31 0 2.84×10-2 Lsk/m 14.34 0.31 0 2.95×10-2 h/m 1.04 0.03 0 2.61×10-6 μcz 0.65 0.04 0 6.84×10-6 μzh 0.53 0.02 0 9.33×10-7 μrc 0.50 0.04 0 6.96×10-6 
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表 2 车辆行驶速度的统计特征值
Table 2. Statistic eigenvalues of vehicle speeds
行驶速度/ (km·h-1) 均值/ (km·h-1) 标准差/ (km·h-1) 三阶中心矩/ (km·h-1)3 四阶中心矩/ (km·h-1)4 偏态系数 峰态系数 Vc1 47.95 1.46 0.00 13.57 0.00 3.00 Vc2 44.72 1.03 0.00 3.40 0.00 3.04 Vc3 45.28 1.53 0.00 16.57 0.00 3.05 Vc4 41.39 1.67 0.00 23.24 0.00 3.02 Vc5 43.21 1.04 0.00 3.48 0.00 3.03 Vc6 39.42 0.71 0.00 0.75 0.00 2.98 Vc7 44.11 1.33 0.00 9.60 0.00 3.06 Vc 44.07 0.60 0.00 0.38 0.00 2.99
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