Evaluation method of security risk on crowded metro station
Article Text (Baidu Translation)
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摘要: 为准确评价人员密集型地铁车站的安全状况, 通过文献检索、案例收集与问卷调查等方式, 在考虑主、客观危险源的基础上对人员密集型地铁车站进行了安全风险因素识别研究, 建立了四级共包含55个指标的安全评价指标体系, 风险类型包括火灾、踩踏、恐怖袭击、水灾、地震等, 明确了各级指标权重的计算方法、指标分值的获取方法及其安全等级类型和分值范围; 基于可拓理论, 建立了四级风险指标的安全分值计算方法和人员密集型地铁车站的安全风险等级判定准则与评价方法, 通过MATLAB对安全评价方法进行编程, 并对广州地铁3号线体育西路车站的安全状态进行了快速评价。计算结果表明: 体育西路车站安全一级指标与各安全等级的关联度矩阵为(-0.057 6, -0.462 4, -0.588 2, -0.628 1)T, 二级指标中踩踏事故与各安全等级的关联度矩阵为(-0.354 8, -0.741 5, -0.724 5, -0.690 4, -0.186 5)T, 根据最大关联度原则, 体育西路车站总体处于安全状态, 但在拥挤与踩踏、人员疏散环境以及管理对策等方面存在安全隐患, 而车站良好的运营安全风险管控措施降低了不安全因素的影响。可见, 采用评价方法有利于准确了解地铁车站的安全状况, 及时发现安全隐患, 制定应对措施, 保障地铁车站安全运营。Abstract: In order to accurately evaluate the security situation of crowded metro station, the security risk factors of crowded metro station were identified and analyzed on the basis of considering the subjective and objective hazard sources through literature search, case collection and questionnaire. A 4-level security evaluation system with 55 indicators was established. The risk types included fire, stampede, terrorist attack, flood, earthquake and so on. The calculating method of indicator weights at all levels, the acquisition method of indicators scores, the types of security grade and the indicators score ranges were clarified. Based on the extension theory, the security score calculation method of four-level risk indicators and the security risk grade judging criteria and evaluation method of crowded metro station were established. The security evaluation method was programmed and calculated by using MATLAB. The Tiyuxilu Station of Guangzhou Metro Line 3 was evaluated rapidly. Calculation result shows that the correlation matrix between the first-level security indicator and each security level of Tiyuxilu Station is(-0.057 6, -0.462 4, -0.588 2, -0.628 1)T, and the correlation matrix between the stampede accident of second-level indicator and each security level is(-0.354 8, -0.741 5, -0.724 5, -0.690 4, -186 5)T. According to the principle of maximum correlation degree, Tiyuxilu Station is generally in a safe state, but there are potential security hazards in congestion/stampede accident, evacuation environment, and management countermeasures, so the good operational security risk control measures of the station can reduce the impact of unsafe factors. The evaluation method is conducive to accurately understand the security situation of metro station, timely discover the potential security hazards, and formulate the countermeasures to ensure the safe operation of metro station.
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图 6 暴力与恐怖袭击事件安全性指标体系
Figure 6. Indicator system of violence and terrorist attack incident security
图 11 踩踏事件安全性四级指标安全等级
Figure 11. Security grades of 4-level stampede incident security indicators
图 12 暴力与恐怖袭击事件安全性四级指标安全等级
Figure 12. Security grades of 4-level violence and terrorist attack incident security indicators
图 13 辅助设备安全性四级指标安全等级
Figure 13. Security grades of 4-level auxiliary equipment security indicators
图 14 地震与水灾安全性四级指标安全等级
Figure 14. Security grades of 4-level earthquake and flood security indicators
表 1 踩踏事件安全性四级指标安全等级与对应的分值范围
Table 1. Security grades and corresponding score ranges of 4-level indicators for stampede incident
指标名称 安全等级与分值范围 分值范围 安全 较安全 一般 较危险 危险 出口畅通率/% (95, 100] (90, 95] (85, 90] (80, 85] [0, 80] [0, 100] 疏散指示标志合格率/% (96, 100] (94, 96] (92, 94] (90, 92] [0, 90] [0, 100] 疏散广播故障率/% [0, 2) [2, 5) [5, 8) [8, 10) [10, 100] [0, 100] 车站繁忙程度/万人次 [0, 10) [10, 20) [20, 30) [30, 40) [40, 100] [0, 100] 站台拥挤程度/(人·m-2) [0, 0.5) [0.5, 0.7) [0.7, 0.8) [0.8, 1.0) [1.0, 10.0] [0, 10.0] 站厅拥挤程度/(人·m-2) [0, 0.6) [0.6, 0.8) [0.8, 0.9) [0.9, 1.1) [1.1, 10.0] [0, 10.0] 商业区人行通道拥挤程度/(人·m-2) [0, 0.4) [0.4, 0.6) [0.6, 0.7) [0.7, 0.9) [0.9, 10.0] [0, 10.0] 踩踏事故疏散预案 (9, 10] (7, 9] (6, 7] (5, 6] [0, 5] [0, 10] 疏散演习间隔/年 [0, 0.5) [0.5, 1.0) [1.0, 1.5) [1.5, 2.0) [2.0, 10.0] [0, 10.0] 工作人员踩踏事故应对能力 (9, 10] (8, 9] (7, 8] (6, 7] [0, 6] [0, 10] 
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表 2 踩踏事件安全性四级指标分值获取方法
Table 2. Score acquisition methods of 4-level indicators for stampede incident security
指标 分值获取方法 出口畅通率 调研统计地铁车站中保持通畅(无杂物堆积、通道畅通)的出口占全部出口的比例 疏散指示标志合格率 随机抽查地铁车站中能正常工作的疏散指示标志所占比例 疏散广播故障率 通过发放调查表, 统计在有纪录的时间内, 广播不能正常工作的时间 车站繁忙程度 根据收集到的客流资料, 统计车站年日均客流量 站台拥挤程度 现场调研计算高峰时期站台统计区域客流密度 站厅拥挤程度 现场调研计算高峰时期站厅统计区域客流密度 商业区人行通道拥挤程度 现场调研计算高峰时期商业区人行通道统计区域客流密度 踩踏事故疏散预案 根据收集到的车站踩踏事故疏散预案, 对预案完善程度进行分析、打分, 0分表示未针对踩踏事故制定任何预案, 10分表示制定了完善的各类大客流预案及踩踏事故应对措施 疏散演习 通过发放调查表, 统计车站开展疏散演习的频率 工作人员踩踏事故应对能力 通过收集到的演习记录及车站人员管理、考核文件, 对工作人员在面对大客流或突发事件时能正确采取措施的能力进行评价、打分, 0分代表工作人员未受过任何训练, 10分代表工作人员多次参与人员疏散模拟、有较强的临危处理能力
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表 3 二级指标判断矩阵
Table 3. Judgment matrix for 2-level indicators
人员密集型地铁车站安全 火灾 拥挤与踩踏 暴力与恐怖袭击 辅助设备 地震与水灾 火灾 1 3 1 5 4 拥挤与踩踏 1/3 1 1/3 4 3 暴力与恐怖袭击 1 3 1 5 4 辅助设备 1/5 1/4 1/5 1 1/2 地震与水灾 1/4 1/3 1/4 2 1
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表 4 指标B1节域、经典域与待评价物元
Table 4. Matter elements of joint domain, classical domain and evaluation for indicator B1
指标 节域物元 经典域物元 待评价物元 Rp R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Rd B11/% [0, 100] (95, 100] (90, 95] (85, 90] (80, 85] [0, 80] v1 B12/% [0, 100] (96, 100] (94, 96] (92, 94] (90, 92] [0, 90] v2 B13/% [0, 100] [0, 2) [2, 5) [5, 8) [8, 10) [10, 100] v3 B14 [0, 100] [0, 10) [10, 20) [20, 30) [30, 40) [40, 100] v4
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表 5 安全等级计算结果
Table 5. Calculation result of security grades
一、二级指标名称 安全等级 安全等级 安全 较安全 一般 较危险 危险 火灾安全性 0.142 1 -0.535 4 -0.708 7 -0.804 7 -0.844 2 安全 踩踏事件安全性 -0.354 8 -0.741 5 -0.724 5 -0.690 4 -0.186 5 危险 暴力与恐怖袭击事件安全性 -0.096 4 -0.306 5 -0.383 3 -0.371 6 -0.357 3 安全 辅助设备安全性 -0.069 3 -0.512 5 -0.763 0 -0.879 0 -0.918 3 安全 自然灾害安全性 -0.141 6 -0.224 9 -0.560 4 -0.679 2 -0.754 3 安全 人员密集型地铁车站安全性 -0.057 6 -0.462 4 -0.588 2 -0.628 1 -0.562 6 安全
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