The Research of Methods of Analyzing Communication Based Train Control System's Reliability
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摘要: 基于通信的列车控制(CBTC) 极有可能成为未来铁路的发展方向, 只是目前人们对它的可靠性还抱有疑虑。给出了一种利用马尔可夫模型分析CBTC可靠性的方法。利用系统各类组件对系统可靠性的影响相互独立的特点, 将系统模型划分为子模型分别考虑, 并对各子模型进行简化以解决状态空间激增的问题。分析人员因素的影响及涉安单元的故障覆盖率, 给出不同子模型的链状状态转移图。根据子模型间的独立性, 将各子模型的事故率相加获得系统的事故率Abstract: The Communication based train control system (CBTC) is very likely to be the trend of the future railway.Some people have doubts about its reliability.A method based on Markov to analyze the reliability of CBTC is provided.Based on the feature that different component types do not interact in such a way as to cause an accident, CBTC model has been decomposed into submodels to be analyzed respectively.The submodels have also been predigested to solve the problem of state proliferation.The effect of human error rate and the failure coverage rate of dualized vital elements have also been analyzed.After that, the state transition map in chain style of different submodels have been given.Because of the orthogonality of the chains, the total accident rate is the sum of the individual chain's accident rates.
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Key words:
- CBTC /
- reliability /
- Markov
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[1] 步兵. 基于无线通信的高速铁路信号系统[J]. 北方交通大学学报, 1999, 23(5): 63-68. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BFJT199905013.htm [2] WILLIAM W. Weinstein safety analysis of ARES [R]. The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, 1987. -
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