The Uncertain Factor Method for Vehicle-velocity Estimate in Traffic Accident
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摘要: 道路交通事故包含很多种不确定的因素, 根据这些因素推断车辆碰撞前的速度具有较大的不确定性, 无法得到一个准确值。提出一种用于车速估算的不确定因子方法, 即采用不确定度理论, 通过适当选择不确定度对车速计算结果影响最大的参数作为不确定因子, 根据其不确定度推算车速的不确定度和取值范围。分别选取轮胎与路面间的摩擦系数、被撞车碰撞前速度等参数作为不确定因子, 给出了该方法在动能和动量等车速算法中的应用。Abstract: There are many uncertain factors in a road traffic accident.According to these factors, the pre impact velocity of a vehicle can be estimated with some ucertainties. The Uncertainty Theory is utilized to calculate the uncertainty and extremum of the estimated velocity.From the factors mentioned above, a factor is selected as the uncertain factor, which has the most influence on velocity results.Then the uncertain factor is utilized to ascertain an error limit or a value scope of the vehicle velocity.The friction coefficient and the pre impact velocity of the impacted vehicle are considered as the uncertain factors, upon that the method is practiced in the algorithm of kinetic energy and momentum equation.
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Key words:
- road traffic accident /
- vehicle veloity estimate /
- uncertainty /
- uncertain factor
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[1] ISHIKAWA H. Impact model for accident reconstruction-normal and tangential restitution coefficients[J]. SAE Paper, No. 930654, 1993: 928-939. [2] CLIFF W E, MONTGOMERY D T. Validation of PC- CRASH-A momentum-based accident reconstruction program[J]. SAE Paper, No. 960885. SP-1150, 1996: 101-132. [3] FONDS A G. Principles of crush energy determination [J]. SAE Paper, No. 1999-01-0106, 1999: 281-294. [4] 刘智敏. 不确定度及其实践[M]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2000.11-14. -
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