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摘要: 目前, 中国各大航空公司开展了飞行品质监控、对监控数据的分析, 为保证飞行安全, 加快新飞行员的培养提供了有效的科学手段。然而, 飞行品质监控的预警管理功能亟待加强。通过调查分析中国民航飞行品质监控的管理模式和管理措施, 提出了利用民航飞行品质监控进行民航灾害预警管理的新思路, 探讨了民航飞行品质监控的预测方法。计算结果表明, 可采用指数平滑法预测超限事件的发生趋势, 及时发现民航事故的早期征兆, 为民航灾害预警管理提供对策依据。Abstract: At present, some great airline companies are developing flight character surveillance.The analysis of the relevant parameter supplies the effective technical measures for flight safety and training aviators.However, the forewarning management function of the flight character surveillance needs to be enhanced.By diagnosing the management pattern and measure of civil aviation flight character surveillance, a new way of civil aviation disasters forewarning management is stated through flight character surveillance, and the forecast methods of the civil aviation flight character surveillance are discussed.The calculation results show that exponential smoothing is suitable to forecast the trend exceed the limits so as to find the early signs of civil aviation accidents and provide some basis for civil aviation disasters forewarning management.
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Key words:
- civil aviation /
- flight character surveillance /
- forewarning management /
- forecast method
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表 1 某航空公司飞行品质监控数据
Table 1. Flight character surveillance data of an airline company
月份 七月份 八月份 九月份 周序 第27周 第28周 第29周 第30周 第31周 第32周 第33周 第34周 第35周 监控起落数 284 291 341 323 253 252 250 267 260 超限事件总数 1369 1411 1671 1441 952 969 801 981 991 三级事件总数 385 409 500 392 127 124 77 112 106 
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[1] LUO Fan, SHE Lian, GU Bi-chong. Discussion on a frame of the forewarning system of civil aviation transportation disasters[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(Social Science Edition), 2001, 14(4): 33-36. [2] 刘舒燕. 交通运输系统工程[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 1998. [3] 董力. 现代经济管理预测与决策方法[M]. 北京: 地震出版社. 1999. [4] 刘思峰, 郭天榜, 党耀国. 灰色系统理论及其应用(第二版)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1999. -
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