Stochastic evaluation method on financial post-evaluation of railway construction project
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摘要: 针对铁路客货运价调整不断放开的政策变化以及客货运价受市场因素影响日益增大的趋势, 分析了现行铁路建设项目财务后评价方法的不足, 运用随机过程理论, 分别描述了铁路客运收入率、货运收入率的波动过程, 建立了铁路建设项目财务后评价的随机模型, 借助计算机模拟技术, 给出了铁路建设项目财务后评价的随机评价方法, 以某铁路建设项目为对象, 计算了各种财务后评价指标。计算结果表明财务后评价的随机评价方法更好地反映了铁路建设项目的实际, 能更为客观地进行铁路建设项目财务后评价。Abstract: Chinese policy change of transport price is mainly influenced by market factor. This paper analyzed the weakness of the method on financial post-evaluation of railway construction project. By applying the stochastic process theory to describe the passenger traffic rate and the cargo freight rate in railway respectively, the stochastic model of financial post-evaluation for railway construction project was developed. With stochastic simulation, the stochastic evaluation method was proposed. The results indicate that the stochastic evaluation method can more accurately image actual case, and will be a new method to financially post-evaluation of railway construction project objectively.
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