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摘要: 应用大圆航迹和等角航迹原理, 融合雷达、电报等动态数据, 研究了动态航迹推测算法, 以及该算法在航空器飞行轨迹预测、航空器过航路点时间预测和空中交通流量动态统计预测等方面的应用。利用广州机场的实际航班数据, 将动态航迹推测算法与经验时间累加法进行了对比研究, 发现动态航迹推测算法符合航空器运行规则, 其误差在±0.5 min之内, 能及时修正航空器的飞行轨迹, 反应灵敏。结果表明动态航迹推测方法能更好地预测未来短时期内空域使用情况, 是一种为空中交通战术流量管理提供准确数据的有效方法。Abstract: This paper studied the algorithm of flying track conjecture by using the principium of garden line and angle line conjecture combined with the dynamic data of radar and flight telegraph, calculated the flying track and fix point time of aerocraft, and estimated air traffic flow by the method, the result was compared with that by experience time add-up method with the flight plan data of airport ZGGG. It is pointed that dynamic flying track conjecture method has high sensitivity, its error is within ±0.5 min, it accords with fly rules, and can revise the fly route in real-time. The results indicate that dynamic flying track conjecture method could estimate the flow of airspace more accurately, is an effective measurement for tactical air traffic flow management.
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Key words:
- air traffic /
- flow management /
- flying track conjecture /
- dynamic data combining
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表 1 航迹推算过程
Table 1. Conjecture process of flying track
数据获得情况 过航路点的时间 统计/预测时刻 BEMAG WYN EGANA WQ PH QX 经验时间累加法 无雷达, 无起飞报 11:07:00 11:20:42 11:24:42 11:27:46 11:32:46 11:34:46 11:00:00 无雷达, 有起飞报 11:08:00 11:21:42 11:25:42 11:28:46 11:33:46 11:35:46 11:10:00 雷达扫描到BEMAG 11:11:35 11:25:17 11:29:17 11:32:21 11:37:21 11:39:21 11:20:00 雷达扫描到WQ 11:11:35 11:25:17 11:29:17 11:32:44 11:37:44 11:39:44 11:35:00 雷达扫描到PH 11:11:35 11:25:17 11:29:17 11:32:44 11:37:07 11:39:07 11:38:00 雷达扫描到QX 11:11:35 11:25:17 11:29:17 11:32:44 11:37:07 11:39:07 11:40:00 航迹推测法 无雷达, 无起飞报 11:16:45 11:30:29 11:34:29 11:37:34 11:42:04 11:43:59 11:00:00 无雷达, 有起飞报 11:17:45 11:31:29 11:35:29 11:38:34 11:43:04 11:44:59 11:10:00 雷达扫描到BEMAG 11:11:35 11:25:19 11:29:19 11:32:34 11:36:54 11:39:49 11:20:00 雷达扫描到WQ 11:11:35 11:25:19 11:29:19 11:32:44 11:37:14 11:39:09 11:35:00 雷达扫描到PH 11:11:35 11:25:19 11:29:19 11:32:44 11:37:07 11:38:02 11:38:00 雷达扫描到QX 11:11:35 11:25:19 11:29:19 11:32:44 11:37:07 11:39:07 11:40:00 
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表 2 飞行时间/速度
Table 2. Fly time and speed
机型 航路点1 航路点2 经验飞行时间/min 航迹推算飞行时间/min 过航路点2速度/(km·h-1) B737 ZGDY(起飞机场) BEMAG 37.00 非直接连通, 无法推算 810 BEMAG WYN 13.70 13.73 810 WYN EGANA 4.00 4.00 750 EGANA WQ 无记录 3.08 669 WQ PH 5.00 4.50 505 PH QX 2.00 1.91 368
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表 3 扇区空中交通流量
Table 3. Air traffic flow of sector
各时段扇区内航空器总流量/架次 扇区名称 08:00~10:00 10:00~12:00 12:00~14:00 14:00~16:00 16:00~18:00 18:00~20:00 统计/预测时刻 区调北扇 59 81 76 66 79 78 08:00 57 87 72 64 81 77 12:00 57 87 72 61 75 82 16:00 57 87 72 61 75 76 20:00
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