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摘要: 针对恶劣气候条件下, 出行概率与影响交通出行的气候条件、出行距离和安全设施等因素的内在关系, 对出行概率与出行距离、气候特征等定量变量进行统计回归分析, 并建立了模型。模型的复相关系数为84%, 残差检验表明模型的线性假定成立。综合考虑安全设施对模型的影响, 给出出行概率与各影响因素的综合数学模型。分析结果表明恶劣气候严重程度与交通出行概率成反比关系, 恶劣气候条件下, 出行距离与出行概率成正比关系, 而不同的恶劣气候条件、车辆出行距离、道路安全设施完善程度对高速公路交通出行综合影响幅度在10%~50%之间。Abstract: In order to analyzing the relations of vehicle trip probability with weather condition, trip distance and transportation safety facilities, the paper surveyed the number of vehicle trip at Shang-Kai freeway in severe weather, set up the regress models of vehicle trip probability with weather condition and trip distance. The complex correlativity coefficient of the models is 84%. Based on the influence of transportation safety facilities on the models, the paper summarized a compositive math model of vehicle trip probability. The results indicate that the vehicle trip probability has a direct proportion relation with trip distance and inverse proportion relation with severe weather condition, their influence degrees are 10%~50%.
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Key words:
- transportation safety /
- adverse weather /
- statistical analysis /
- vehicle trip
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表 1 车辆出行概率
Table 1. Vehicle trip probability /%
气候类型 距离/km 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 小雪(1) 67.75 69.31 70.15 72.41 75.63 79.19 75.00 小雾(2) 69.02 70.14 71.50 72.39 75.60 79.20 81.00 中雪(3) 52.72 56.19 61.94 67.69 73.44 75.52 84.94 中雾(4) 50.99 56.34 62.06 67.77 73.49 74.63 84.91 冰雪(5) 50.44 55.11 57.51 59.90 61.00 63.50 67.08 大雾(6) 50.63 53.94 56.89 59.84 62.50 65.80 68.69 
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表 2 车辆出行概率
Table 2. Vehicle trip probability /%
安全措施 距离/km 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 平均 有安全设施 79.7 78.7 78.6 77.7 90.6 92.7 81.5 82.79 无安全设施 55.0 56.5 66.6 47.7 45.3 58.9 44.2 53.46
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表 3 模型观察值、预测值及误差
Table 3. Observed values, forecast values and errors of model
数值 距离/km 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 小雪观测值 67.75 69.31 70.15 72.41 75.63 79.19 75.00 小雪预测值 64.70 68.01 71.32 74.62 77.93 81.23 84.54 误差 3.05 1.30 -1.17 -2.21 -2.30 -2.04 -9.54 小雾观测值 69.02 70.14 71.50 72.39 75.60 79.20 81.00 小雾预测值 61.56 64.86 68.17 71.48 74.78 78.09 81.39 误差 7.46 5.28 3.33 0.91 0.82 1.11 -0.39 中雪观测值 52.72 56.19 61.94 67.69 73.44 75.52 84.94 中雪预测值 58.41 61.72 65.02 68.33 71.64 74.94 78.25 误差 -5.69 -5.53 -3.08 -0.64 1.80 0.58 6.69 中雾观测值 50.99 56.34 62.06 67.77 73.49 74.63 84.91 中雾预测值 55.26 58.57 61.88 65.18 68.49 71.79 75.10 误差 -4.27 -2.23 0.18 2.59 5.00 2.84 9.81 冰雪观测值 50.44 55.11 57.51 59.90 61.00 63.50 67.08 冰雪预测值 52.12 55.42 58.73 62.04 65.34 68.65 71.95 误差 -1.68 -0.31 -1.22 -2.14 -4.34 -5.15 -4.87 大雾观测值 50.63 53.94 56.89 59.84 62.50 65.80 68.69 大雾预测值 48.97 52.28 55.58 58.89 62.20 65.50 68.81 误差 1.66 1.66 1.31 0.95 0.30 0.30 -0.12
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