MD forecasting model of passenger traffic volume for newly-built high-speed railway in transport corridor
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摘要: 为了准确分析运输通道新建高速铁路未来客运需求, 应用经济学效用原理和数学分析方法, 对MD(Minimum Drain)预测模型的概念、假设、原理进行了定义和分析, 讨论了需求潜在化实现率、旅行总支付及运输方式选择的机理, 并与传统客运量预测方法对通道总的铁路客运需求量预测结果进行了对比。结果表明, 该模型预测运输通道新建高速铁路未来的市场份额为70%以上, 预测潜在需求年增长率比其他方法低1%, 符合近年来交通量的增长规律, 这说明MD模型与传统运量预测模型结合进行通道运量预测能充分反应通道中各种运输方式的服务水平对其市场份额划分的影响。Abstract: In order to accurately analyze the future passenger traffic volume of newly-built high-speed railway in transport corridor, using the utility principle of economics and the analytical method of mathematics, the paper studied the conception, hypothesis and principium of MD model, discussed the mechanisms of the potential demand and requirement achieve ratio, the total payment of travel and the choice of varies transport.The forecasting results of MD model and conventional method indicate that the market percentage of newly-built high-speed railway is approximately 70%, the annually increasing ratio of potential demand volume reduces by 1%, which adapt to the change of traffic volume, the way of combining MD model with conventional method of traffic volume forecasting can reflect the relations between different service levels of transport and their market percentages well.
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图 1 各种运输方式旅行总支付量及分界点
Figure 1. Total travel payments and boundary points of various transports
表 1 预测结果比较
Table 1. Comparison of prediction results
/万人 预测方法 区段 郑州—洛阳 洛阳—三门峡 三门峡—华山 华山—西安 传统方法预测 5 622 2 509 2 442 5 264 四阶段法预测 7 927 3 537 3 443 7 442 MD模型预测 6 370 3 003 2 923 6 732 
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