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摘要: 鉴于Wardrop原理假设通道内的旅客对各种运输方式的实际出行费用能够完全准确估计的不足, 利用不确定规划理论, 结合不同出行距离、不同收入水平的旅客对运输方式服务属性的评价, 用数学期望表示旅客出行的广义费用, 提出了不确定条件下运输通道内各种运输方式旅客最优和运输系统最优客运量分担率计算模型, 以及多目标客运量分担率计算模型, 并设计了用于求解模型的基于随机模拟的遗传算法。客运量分担率的预测结果与实际测量值之间平均误差为8.13%, 说明本模型能够有效地模拟旅客在出行时对运输方式选择的不确定性。Abstract: In order to solve the shortcoming of travel cost exact evaluation for passengers with Wardrop theory, uncertain programming theory was analyzed, the evaluations of different economy levels and different income leves passengers for transport modes were considered, the travel cost was expressed by mathematic expectation, three different computation models of passenger traffic sharing rates were set up, which were passenger equilibrium model, system optimization model and multi-object optimization model, a genetic algorithm based on stochastic simulation to calculate the models was put forward.Simulation result shows that the average error of computation values and measure values is 8.13%, which effectively indicates the uncertain of passenger choice transport modes.
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表 1 旅客选择运输方式的比例
Table 1. Proportion of passengers selecting transport modes
/% 出行距离/km 收入水平 < 1 000元/月 1 000~2 000元/月 2 000~4 000元/月 > 4 000元/月 汽车 火车 飞机 汽车 火车 飞机 汽车 火车 飞机 汽车 火车 飞机 < 200 68.3 31.7 0.0 72.9 27.1 0.0 72.9 27.1 0.0 76.9 23.1 0.0 200~500 26.8 73.2 0.0 30.0 70.0 0.0 29.1 70.8 0.0 30.8 65.4 3.8 500~800 2.4 92.7 4.9 2.9 91.4 5.7 8.3 72.9 18.8 7.7 53.8 38.5 > 800 0.0 92.7 7.3 0.0 82.9 17.1 0.0 60.4 39.6 0.0 34.6 65.4 
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表 2 服务属性权系数
Table 2. Weight parameters of service properties
出行距离/km 权系数 快速性 经济性 舒适性 方便性 < 200 0.569 0.219 0.124 0.088 200~500 0.403 0.352 0.146 0.098 500~800 0.332 0.420 0.162 0.086 > 800 0.302 0.455 0.152 0.091
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表 3 相关参数
Table 3. Correlative parameters
哈尔滨—沈阳 OD量/(人·天-1) 快速性T/h 票价P/元 舒适性F 方便性E 汽车 186 7.35 130.0 0.625 3.167 火车 1 903 7.10 86.0 0.286 1.829 飞机 210 3.00 510.0 0.473 0.497
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表 4 旅客最优的客运量分担率模型计算结果
Table 4. Computation result of passenger equilibrium model
哈尔滨—沈阳 实际分担率/% 预测分担率/% 误差/% 汽车 8.1 8.9 -9.7 火车 82.8 80.8 2.3 飞机 9.1 10.3 -12.4
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表 5 不同权重下的客运量分担率模型计算结果
Table 5. Computation result of passenger and system equilibrium models in different weight parameters
多目标权重系数 ω1(系统) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 ω2(旅客) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 分担率/% 汽车 12.1 11.6 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.4 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.9 火车 78.6 79.0 79.4 79.6 79.8 79.9 80.1 80.3 80.4 80.6 80.8 飞机 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3
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