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摘要: 为确定高速公路融资及其结构的影响因素, 建立了固定效应和随机效应模型, 运用面板数据回归方法对美国50个州的平行数据进行检验, 对高速公路融资结构与经济结构和人口结构之间的关系进行研究。研究结果表明: 人均个人收入及人口密度对地方政府融资结构的影响显著高于对州级政府融资结构的影响, 65%人口出资比例以及男性人口出资比例对州级政府融资结构的影响具有显著的时序效应, 非公路使用者以及女性公路使用者的出资比例逐渐趋于平衡, 这对中国经济转型时期的高速公路融资具有重要的现实意义和参考价值。Abstract: In order to determine the factors that affect highway financing, a fixed effect model and a random effect model were built, the parallel data of 50 states in USA were examined by panel data regression method, the relationships between expressway financing structure and economic structure & population structure were analyzed. The result indicates that the influence of PGNP and population density on local government financing structure is more obvious than on state government, the subscribed capital proportions of 65% population and the male have significant time series effect on state government financing structure, the subscribed capital proportions of female users and highway non-users are gradually balanced. The study has practical significance and reference value to expressway financing during economic conversion period in China.
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Key words:
- road economics /
- expressway /
- financing structure /
- panel data /
- economic structure
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表 1 融资结构变化
Table 1. Change of financing structure
资金来源 1980年资金额/亿元 2000年资金额/亿元 增长百分比/% 公路使用费 总费用 47.260 142.090 200.6 联邦政府 18.558 49.924 169.0 州政府 28.181 88.498 214.0 地方政府 1.736 6.552 277.5 道路桥梁通行费 5.013 16.859 236.3 联邦基金份额 16.624 38.503 131.6 财产税 5.576 14.916 167.5 咪表停车费 2.871 12.617 339.5 杂费收入 4.253 14.762 247.1 债券收入 4.253 25.114 402.1 
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表 2 融资结构观测数据
Table 2. Observed data of financing structure
变量 观测样本容量 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值 州级政府 地方政府 州级政府 地方政府 州级政府 地方政府 州级政府 地方政府 州级政府 地方政府 公路使用税份额/% 950 450 59.1 7.5 14.0 15.3 12.0 0.0 92.6 81.1 联邦基金份额/% 950 450 15.2 41.4 10.0 30.9 0.2 0.0 64.6 100.0 路桥通行费份额/% 950 450 3.1 0.7 4.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 29.0 12.4 财产税份额/% 950 450 5.3 22.2 6.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 67.7 97.0 杂费收入份额/% 950 450 10.7 17.2 7.3 17.9 0.1 0.0 49.6 82.7 债券收入份额/% 950 450 6.5 10.7 7.4 11.3 0.0 0.0 36.7 73.4 人口密度/ (人·km-2) 1050 450 167.4 175.9 233.6 241.6 0.7 1.0 388775.0 1136.0 人均个人收入/美元 1050 450 21116 23621 4134 3721 12404 15935 1821 38661 65%人口出资份额/% 1050 450 12.0 12.4 2.2 2.1 2.9 4.4 53.0 18.2 男性人口出资份额/% 1050 450 48.5 60.8 1.0 23.5 45.0 3.3 18.0 100.0 失业率 1050 450 6.1 5.1 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.2 11.4 州政府拨给地方政府的基金份额/% 450 16.5 3.5 9.4 25.4 注: 资料来源于美国联邦高速公路管理委员会。
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表 3 估计与检验结果
Table 3. Result of estimation and examination
解释变量 被解释变量 公路使用税 联邦基金份额 路桥通过费 财产税 杂费收入 债券收入 地方政府融资额 人口密度 -0.0200 (0.86) -0.2100① (-2.85) -0.0200③ (-3.08) 0.0200③ (4.48) 0.1400③ (5.05) -0.0800 (-1.01) 0.0002 (0.66) 人均个人收入 -0.0009② (-2.40) 0.0010① (1.75) -0.0008 (-0.01) 0.0020③ (3.37) -0.0005 (-0.46) -0.0010② (-2.08) 0.0003 (0.30) 失业率 -0.0020 (-0.71) -1.3470③ (-2.63) 2.8850③ (2.79) -0.0800② (-2.18) -2.3640③ (-3.46) 0.4290 (0.77) 0.4810 (0.77) 联邦基金份额 -0.0001 (-0.09) -0.3920 (-1.17) 1.4130③ (3.15) 0.0290 (1.24) -0.5600 (-1.63) -0.2420 (-1.00) -0.2490 (-0.88) 65%人口出资份额 -0.0020 (-0.32) 0.0020 (0.01) -0.8980 (0.76) 0.0980② (2.18) 0.7150 (1.09) -1.2350 (-1.07) 1.3170 (0.91) 男性人口出资份额 0.0010③ (2.48) 0.0290 (1.77) -0.4590 (-2.16) 0.0020 (0.93) 0.0790 (1.62) 0.0080 (0.38) 0.1400 (1.47) 截距项 0.2690① (1.94) -22.8590 (0.85) 109.2530③ (3.17) -5.4700③ (-4.29) 21.3580 (0.86) 31.0390 (1.50) -33.3170 (1.41) 观测样本容量 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 拟合优度 0.90 0.81 0.83 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.55 注: 括号内的数值为z统计量值; ①表示10%显著水平下的检验值; ②表示5%显著水平下的检验值; ③表示1%显著水平下的检验值。
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