-
摘要: 分析了数10个国家的社会经济、交通事故情况及发展规律, 利用新近的多年数据对国外学者提出的交通安全发展模型进行了验证, 并进一步分析了模型在不同机动化水平下的适用性。研究发现在机动化水平的初级阶段, 世界各国相应的机动化水平能够解释相应的交通事故水平, 而在机动化水平高度成熟的状况下, 上述模型就不再适用。在此基础上, 将中国交通事故的发展特性与国际规律进行比较, 发现在同等的机动化水平下, 中国的交通事故水平要好于国际一般水平。提出了适合中国机动化水平与交通事故水平的关系模型, 确定了中国交通事故水平处于快速恶化的阶段, 交通事故死亡人数还会持续增加。Abstract: The characteristics of social economies and traffic accidents in tens of countries were studied, the traffic safety development model proposed by foreign researchers was verified with recent accident data, the applicability of the model under different motorization levels was analyzed, the development characteristics of Chinese traffic accidents were studied, the traffic accident model adapting Chinese traffic safety and motorization pattern was put forward.Analysis result indicates that the levels of traffic accidents can be explained by preliminary motorization levels in different countries, but can not be deduced by mature motorization levels, Chinese level of traffic accidents is better than most of other countries at the same level of motorization.The development stage of Chinese traffic accidents is presented, in which the level rapilly worsens, and the traffic death toll continually increases.
-
Key words:
- traffic safety /
- traffic accidents /
- accident laws /
- motorization level
-
图 2 20个国家的机动化水平与交通事故关系
Figure 2. Relationships between motorization levels and road traffic accidents in 20 countries
图 3 30余个国家的机动化水平与交通事故关系
Figure 3. Relationships between motorization levels and road traffic accidents in more than 30 countries
-
[1] 公安部交通管理局. 中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计资料汇编(1998~2005)[R]. 北京: 公安部交通管理局, 2006. [2] Smeed R J. Some statistical aspects of road safety research[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 1949, 112(1): 1-23. doi: 10.2307/2984177 [3] Smeed R J. The usefulness of formulate in traffic engineering and road safety[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1972, 4(4): 303-312. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(72)90029-2 [4] International Road Federation. World road statistics[R]. Brussels: International Road Federation, 1999. [5] Adams J. Smeed's law-some further thoughts[J]. Traffic Engineering and Control, 1987, 28(22): 70-73. [6] Broughton J. Predictive models of road accident fatalities[J]. Traffic Engineering and Control, 1988, 29(5): 296-300. [7] 张殿业, 明士军, 石茂清. 中国道路交通安全问题探讨[J]. 交通运输工程与信息学报, 2003, 1(2): 17-21. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JTGC200302002.htmZhang Dian-ye, Ming Shi-jun, Shi Mao-qing. Discussion on the problems of road traffic safety in China[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2003, 1(2): 17-21. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JTGC200302002.htm [8] 张殿业, 明士军. 道路交通事故对策探讨[J]. 交通运输工程与信息学报, 2004, 2(1): 12-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-4747.2004.01.002Zhang Dian-ye, Ming Shi-jun. Discussion on the countermeasures of road traffic accidents in China[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2004, 2(1): 12-19. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-4747.2004.01.002 [9] 乔向明, 徐安, 舒伟. 中国道路交通事故变化趋势预测[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200406016.htmQiao Xiang-ming, Xu An, Shu Wei. Developing tendency forecast of road traffic accident in China[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200406016.htm [10] Tominaga S. Development of descriptive models for road accidents analysis-1st report: international comparison of road accidents[J]. JARI Research Journal, 2004, 26(3): 33-36. [11] 王福建, 李铁强, 俞传正. 道路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200601026Wang Fu-jian, Li Tie-qiang, Yu Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst predictive model of road traffic accident[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. (in Chinese) http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200601026 [12] 裴玉龙, 丁建梅. 鉴别道路交通事故多发点的突出因素法[J]. 中国公路学报, 2005, 18(3): 95-99. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200503021.htmPei Yu-long, Ding Jian-mei. Outstanding factor method to black spot differentiation[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2005, 18(3): 95-99. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200503021.htm -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(4)
计量
- 文章访问数: 354
- HTML全文浏览量: 94
- PDF下载量: 227
- 被引次数: 0
