Sustainable development model of shipping and water environment in Yangtze River valley
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摘要: 为促进长江流域航运与水环境的协调发展, 利用系统分析方法和系统动力学模型, 建立了长江流域航运与水环境协调发展模型, 对各种宏观调控政策和措施效应进行了仿真模拟分析。模拟结果表明, 计算指标模拟值与实际值基本吻合, 最大相对误差为12.9%, 表明模型能较好地模拟长江流域航运与水环境协调发展系统; 航运污染主要来源于船舶事故污染和船员生活污染, 占总污染90%以上; 人口、水环境、航运及工农业协调增长模式有助于水环境质量的持续改善; 船舶事故应急管理水平的提高是航运污染治理的关键。
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关键词:
- 交通管理 /
- 航运与水环境协调发展 /
- 系统动力学 /
- 航运污染治理
Abstract: In order to accelerate the sustainable development of shipping and water environment in Yangtze River valley, a dynamic sustainable development model was constructed by using system analysis method and system dynamics model, the effects of different types of controlling policies and managing methods were simulated. Simulation result shows that the simulation values of sustainable development indices are close to their real values, the maximum error is 12.9%, the model can effectively simulate the sustainable development of shipping and water environment in Yangtze River valley; almost 90% of shipping pollution is usually caused by ship accidents and crew living garbages; the comprehensive development of population, water environment, shipping, industry and agriculture is helpful to improving water environment; it is the key to pay more attention to improve the management level of ship accident emergency decision. -
图 3 航运与水环境污染因果关系模块
Figure 3. Cause-effect relationship module between shipping and water environment pollution
图 4 货运规模演变因果关系模块
Figure 4. Cause-effect relationship module of cargo transport change process
图 5 客运规模演变因果关系模块
Figure 5. Cause-effect relationship module of passenger transport change process
图 6 航运业投资因果关系模块
Figure 6. Cause-effect relationship module of investment of shipping industry
表 1 历史统计与仿真值比较
Table 1. Comparison of statistics and simulation results
指标 历史值 仿真值 相对误差/% 人口/万人 7220.612 7215.729 0.29 工业产值/亿元 11923.2 10384.3 12.90 农业产值/亿元 1747.587 1848.511 0.08 人均GDP/元 14517.40 15133.17 0.06 货运量/104 t 17944.60 24258.12 7.51 
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表 2 不同模式的参数选择
Table 2. Parameter choice of different models
参数 传统趋势型 工业发展型 资源保护型 协调发展型 全社会固定资产投资比例/% 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 工业投资比例/% 50.0 58.0 47.0 52.0 农业投资比例/% 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.7 科技投资比例/% 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 水污染治理投资比例/% 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.0 航运产业投资比例/% 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.3
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