Forecast model of parking demand based on land function and traffic characteristics
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摘要: 为了解决城市停车难问题, 对停车需求进行合理预测, 考虑目前日益紧张的土地资源和快速增长的交通流量, 分析了用地与交通影响预测模型建立的基本原理, 采用用地特征函数描述了土地使用性质与停车生成率之间的关系, 采用交通影响函数分析了路网流量增长率和停车率对停车需求的影响, 在此基础上建立了停车需求预测模型。利用开发的软件系统, 根据典型区域的土地资源规划和道路交通调查数据, 进行了城市停车需求预测。预测结果表明: 随着时间的变化, 在各种因素影响下, 停车需求近5 a增长较缓慢, 而在随后的5 a中停车需求快速增长, 且日停车需求量的增长速度明显高于高峰小时的增长速度。Abstract: In order to solve urban parking difficulty and reasonably forecast urban parking demand, the limitation of land resource and the increase of traffic flow were considered, the principle of parking demand forecast model with land function and traffic effect was analysed, the relation of land use property and dynamic parking generation rate was depicted by land use character function, and the influences of the increase rate of traffic flow and parking rate on parking demand were analyzed by traffic influence function.A parking demand forecast model was constructed, the algorithm and the program of the model were developed, and the parking demand of a typical region was forecasted based on its land planning data and practical road traffic flow data.Forecast result shows that parking demand increases slowly in recent 5 a and quickly in following 5 a, the increase speed of everyday parking demand is higher than that of rush hour.
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Key words:
- traffic engineering /
- parking demand /
- land function /
- traffic characteristics /
- forecast model
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表 1 土地利用情况
Table 1. Land function
hm2 年份 用地类型 居住 商业 学校 工业 医院 机关 服务 其他 2005(现状) 630.21 78.03 156.95 874.88 19.93 266.87 520.13 907.44 2010(规划) 810.41 121.85 178.91 628.62 18.92 240.83 807.26 688.20 
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表 2 部分主干路交通量
Table 2. Traffic flow capacities of some main roads
道路序号 指标 路段长度/m 里程权 交通量/(veh·d-1) 2002 2005 1 5 980 0.261 7 558 9 389 2 4 149 0.181 19 609 24 360 3 2 281 0.099 7 754 9 632 4 3 196 0.138 25 223 31 334 5 3 164 0.138 8 439 10 438 6 1 324 0.058 27 054 33 609 7 1 291 0.056 30 898 41 184 8 885 0.039 34 507 42 867 9 625 0.030 19 875 24 690 总计 22 895 1.000
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表 3 机动车保有量
Table 3. Vehicle amounts
年份 类型 汽车保有量/veh 保有量增长率/% 保有总量 公务车 非公务车 总量 公务车 非公务车 2000 142 111 127 068 15 043 2001 166 460 138 210 28 250 17.1 8.7 87.8 2002 209 351 148 448 60 903 25.8 7.4 116.0 2003 253 891 167 614 86 277 21.3 12.9 41.7 2004 308 251 180 359 127 892 21.4 7.6 48.2
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表 4 停车特征参数
Table 4. Parking character parameters
停车区域 停车泊位 平均停车时间/h 利用率/% 周转率/% 日停车数/veh 高峰停车数/veh 高峰停车比/% 高峰停车指数 路内 407 69.4 34.5 2.8 1 143 199 17.41 0.49 路外 376 78.3 29.5 2.5 945 133 14.07 0.35
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表 5 停车需求预测结果
Table 5. Parking demand forecast result
年度 2005 2006 2010 2012 2015 日停车需求量/(veh·d-1) 494 386 531 654 560 354 662 632 851 982 高峰小时停车需求量/(veh·h-1) 103 821 111 647 117 674 139 152 178 916
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