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摘要: 为定量描述出行方式转移规律, 分析了出行方式转移与量子跃迁的相似特性, 根据量子能级跃迁理论建立了出行方式转移模型, 通过分析长春市居民出行调查数据, 推导了出行方式转移的多项式拟合公式, 分别采用2~4次多项式标定了拟合系数, 并且进行了相关性检验。数据验证结果表明: 某种出行方式向其他方式转移时, 距离差与收入差的函数关系符合常数项为0的2次或高次多项式拟合公式; 2次多项式拟合任意出行方式向其他方式转移所得到的复相关系数均在0.900 0以上, 3次或4次多项式拟合所得到的复相关系数均为1.000 0。这证明模拟量子跃迁的出行方式转移模型可以定量描述任意出行方式向其他出行方式转移的规律。Abstract: To quantificationally describe trip mode transfer rules, the comparability between trip mode transfer and quantum jump was analyzed in detail, and a trip mode transfer model was put forward according to quantum energy level jump theory. In order to calibrate the model, the polynomial imitation equation was deduced by analyzing inhabitant trip survey data from Changchun City, the imitation coefficients were ascertained, and their correlative tests were made by using quadratic, cubic and biquadratic polynomials respectively. Data validating result shows that the function relation between distance difference and income balance fits quadratic or higher polynomial whose constant items are zero when one mode transfers to other modes; the correlative coefficients are all more than 0.900 0 when using quadratic polynomial, and they are all 1.000 0 when using cubic or biquadratic polynomial. It is obvious that the model is feasible to quantificationally describe the rules of trip mode transfer.
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Key words:
- traffic planning /
- inhabitant reorganization /
- quantum jump theory /
- trip mode transfer /
- energy level
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表 1 平均收入与平均距离
Table 1. Average income and average distance
出行方式 自行车 公交车 摩托车 小汽车 平均收入/(千元·月-1) 1.161 6 1.373 4 1.600 0 2.076 0 平均距离/km 2.054 4 3.967 9 4.496 2 5.867 4 
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表 2 收入差与距离差
Table 2. Income balance and distance balance
出行方式转移 自行车→自行车 自行车→公交车 自行车→摩托车 自行车→小汽车 收入差/(千元·月-1) 0.000 0 0.211 8 0.438 4 0.914 4 距离差/km 0.000 0 1.913 5 2.441 8 3.813 0 出行方式转移 公交车→自行车 公交车→公交车 公交车→摩托车 公交车→小汽车 收入差/(千元·月-1) -0.211 8 0.000 0 0.226 6 0.702 6 距离差/km -1.913 5 0.000 0 0.528 3 1.899 5 出行方式转移 摩托车→自行车 摩托车→公交车 摩托车→摩托车 摩托车→小汽车 收入差/(千元·月-1) -0.438 4 -0.226 6 0.000 0 0.476 0 距离差/km -2.441 8 -0.528 3 0.000 0 1.371 2 出行方式转移 小汽车→自行车 小汽车→公交车 小汽车→摩托车 小汽车→小汽车 收入差/(千元·月-1) -0.914 4 -0.702 6 -0.476 0 0.000 0 距离差/km -3.813 0 -1.899 5 -1.371 2 0.000 0
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表 3 某种方式向其他方式转移的多项式拟合
Table 3. Polynomial fitting for one mode transferring to others
自行车出行方式 收入差/(千元·月-1) 统计距离差/km 2次多项式拟合距离差/km 3次多项式拟合距离差/km 4次多项式拟合距离差/km 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.211 8 1.913 5 1.523 8 1.913 5 1.913 5 0.438 4 2.441 8 2.719 7 2.441 8 2.441 8 0.914 4 3.813 0 3.770 0 3.813 0 3.813 0 参数值 — 8.120 2, -4.371 5 13.904 8, -26.717 7, 17.576 0 12.951 1, -18.995 8, 0.000 0, 11.233 6 复相关系数 — 0.984 4 1.000 0 1.000 0 公交车出行方式 -0.211 8 -1.913 5 -1.566 5 -1.913 5 -1.913 5 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.226 6 0.528 3 1.151 3 0.528 3 0.528 3 0.702 6 1.899 5 1.803 2 1.899 5 1.899 5 参数值 — 6.277 6, -5.282 0 4.952 5, -15.549 9, 17.576 0 4.952 5, -15.549 9, 17.576 0, 0.000 0 复相关系数 — 0.964 8 1.000 0 1.000 0 摩托车出行方式 -0.438 4 -2.441 8 -2.240 6 -2.441 8 -2.441 8 -0.226 6 -0.528 3 -1.034 9 -0.528 3 -0.528 3 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.476 0 1.371 2 1.315 3 1.371 2 1.371 2 参数值 — 3.985 4, -2.567 3 0.612 8, -3.601 7, 17.576 0 0.612 8, -3.601 7, 17.576 0, 0.000 0 复相关系数 — 0.979 7 1.000 0 1.000 0 小汽车出行方式 -0.914 4 -3.813 0 -3.671 7 -3.813 0 -3.813 0 -0.702 6 -1.899 5 -2.255 2 -1.899 5 -1.899 5 -0.476 0 -1.371 2 -1.117 6 -1.371 2 -1.371 2 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 参数值 — 0.537 1, -3.804 0 9.130 9, 21.496 9, 17.576 0 6.562 8, 9.638 3, 0.000 0, -8.397 5 复相关系数 — 0.985 8 1.000 0 1.000 0
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