-
摘要: 为了对中国未来的交通安全形势做出科学预测, 分析了中国道路交通安全状况的评价指标和主要影响因素, 建立了以机动车保有量、人口、公路里程、客货运输周转量和国家控制力度为参数的道路交通事故死亡人数预测模型, 并对1991~2004年各年的死亡人数进行了计算和未来年份死亡人数进行了预测。预测结果表明: 预测模型精度高, 平均预测误差为3.9%;得出2010年和2020年中国道路交通事故死亡人数的预测值分别为14万人和17万人, 死亡人数由上升转为下降的转折点出现时间约在2010年到2015年之间。Abstract: In order to scientifically predict the future traffic safety situation in China, a prediction model of traffic accident death toll was built based on the analysis of evaluation indices and main influence factors of Chinese road traffic safety situation, which several factors were taken as parameters, including motor vehicle amount, population, highway mileage, passengers and goods transport volume, and government policy. According to the model, the annual death toll from 1991 to 2004 was calculated, and the future death toll was predicted.Prediction result shows that the precision of the model is higher, the average predicting error is 3.9%;the predicting values of accident death toll in 2010 and 2020 are 14 ten thousand people and 17 ten thousand people respectively; the turning time is during 2010 to 2015 when the death toll changes from rising to descending.
-
Key words:
- traffic safety /
- road traffic accident /
- death toll /
- prediction model
-
表 1 道路交通安全评价指标特性
Table 1. Properties of evaluation indices for road traffic safety
评价指标 可测性 代表性 可比性 死亡人数 好 好 好 受伤人数 好 一般 差 事故次数 好 好 一般 经济损失 好 一般 差 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 相关影响因素
Table 2. Relative influence factors
影响因素 各历史年份数据 预测年份数据 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2010 2020 机动车保有量/104 veh 208.8 655.6 1476.3 3179.8 6639.9 10779.0 12400.0 公路里程/104 km 88.83 94.24 102.83 115.70 140.30 187.70 210.00~230.00 260.00~300.00 人口/108人 9.87 10.59 11.43 12.11 12.63 12.99 13.77 14.72 旅客周转量/(108人·km) 729.5 1725.0 2620.0 4603.0 6657.0 8748.0 12416.0 货物周转量/(108 t·km) 851.8 1903.0 3358.0 4695.0 6129.0 7841.0 10457.0
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 影响因素组合系数
Table 3. Combination coefficiens of influence factors
人车路因素 周转量因素 政策性因素 0.2514 0.2700 0.4786
下载: 导出CSV
表 4 死亡人数预测结果
Table 4. Prediction result of death toll
年份 交通事故年死亡人数/人 相对误差/% 实际值 模型Ⅰ 模型Ⅱ 模型Ⅲ 模型Ⅳ 1991 53292.00 58740.83 54115.56 53783.27 55119.32 4.0301 1992 58729.00 62115.98 57305.56 57609.76 58660.49 2.5533 1993 63508.00 65848.63 61137.57 61589.76 62538.35 2.9913 1994 66362.00 69960.03 65081.76 65713.20 66610.36 2.1757 1995 71494.00 74086.64 69286.12 69967.93 70819.28 2.4482 1996 73665.00 77579.26 73397.93 74339.73 74899.86 2.0671 1997 73861.00 81118.60 78608.14 78812.52 79337.09 7.5928 1998 78067.00 86404.97 81865.53 83368.47 83726.05 7.3965 1999 83529.00 89583.57 89002.91 87988.35 88663.32 6.3218 2000 93853.00 92728.21 94289.62 92651.75 93113.20 0.9330 2001 105928.00 112372.10 101026.60 97337.50 102113.26 5.6054 2002 109381.00 114545.00 109640.40 102024.00 107228.21 3.4131 2003 104372.00 112998.40 100849.20 106689.60 106698.72 4.0225 2004 99217.00 113626.10 107543.20 111313.20 110876.76 3.5141 2010 149906.20 137416.80 137119.30 140414.25 2020 155339.70 183163.40 167914.70 172600.22
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 公安部交通管理局. 中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计资料汇编(1991-2004年)[R]. 北京: 公安部交通管理局, 2005. [2] 郭应时, 付锐, 袁伟, 等. 通道宽度对驾驶员动态视觉和操作行为的影响[J]. 中国公路学报, 2006, 19(5): 83-87. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2006.05.015Guo Ying-shi, Fu Rui, Yuan Wei, et al. Influences of passage width on driver's dynamic visionand operation behavior[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2006, 19(5): 83-87. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2006.05.015 [3] 王福建, 李铁强, 俞传正. 道路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200601026Wang Fu-jian, Li Tie-qiang, Yu Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst predictive model of road traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. (in Chinese) http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200601026 [4] 郭应时, 付锐, 杨鹏飞, 等. 鼓式制动器瞬态温度场数值模拟计算[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2006, 26(3): 87-90. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200603023.htmGuo Ying-shi, Fu Rui, Yang Peng-fei, et al. Numerical simulation and calculation for transient thermal field of drum brake[J]. Journal of Chang an University: Natural Science Edition, 2006, 26(3): 87-90. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200603023.htm [5] 付锐, 刘浩学, 曹利亚, 等. 关于中国道路交通安全政策框架的探讨[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2001, 1(1): 122-126. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200101022Fu Rui, Liu Hao-xue, Cao Li-ya, et al. Discussion of the policies framework of road traffic safety[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2001, 1(1): 122-126. (in Chinese) http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200101022 [6] 裴玉龙, 丁建梅. 鉴别道路交通事故多发点的突出因素法[J]. 中国公路学报, 2005, 18(3): 99-103. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2005.03.020Pei Yu-long, Ding Jian-mei. Outstanding factor method to black spot differentiation[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2005, 18(3): 99-103. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2005.03.020 [7] 裴玉龙, 程国柱. 高速公路车速离散性与交通事故的关系及车速管理研究[J]. 中国公路学报, 2004, 17(1): 74-78. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200401018.htmPei Yu-long, Cheng Guo-zhu. Research on the relationship between discrete character of speed and traffic accident and speed management of freeway[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2004, 17(1): 74-78. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200401018.htm [8] 路峰, 姜文龙, 马社强. 交通事故多发点段排查方法[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2003, 23(1): 87-90. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200301023.htmLu Feng, Jiang Wen-long, Ma She-qiang. Locations identification of hazardous road[J]. Journal of Chang an University: Natural Science Edition, 2003, 23(1): 87-90. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200301023.htm [9] 王建军, 陈梦月, 王参军. 发展高速公路交通安全审计的探讨[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2002, 22(3): 55-58. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200203014.htmWang Jian-jun, Chen Meng-yue, Wang Can-jun. Developing expressway traffic safety audit[J]. Journal of Chang an University: Natural Science Edition, 2002, 22(3): 55-58. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200203014.htm [10] 程昳. 常用预测方法及评价综述[J]. 四川师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 2002, 25(1): 70-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SCSD200201020.htmCheng Yi. Frequently-used prediction method and evaluation summary[J]. Journal of Sichuan Normal University: Natural Science, 2002, 25(1): 70-73. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SCSD200201020.htm [11] Hong D, Lee Y, KimJ, et al. Development of traffic accident prediction models by traffic and road characteristics in urban areas[C]∥Satoh K. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Societyfor Transportation Studies. Bangkok: EASTS, 2005: 2046-2061. [12] 乔向明, 徐安, 舒伟. 中国道路交通事故变化趋势预测[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200406016.htmQiao Xiang-ming, Xu An, Shu Wei. Developing tendency forecast of road traffic accident in China[J]. Journal of Chang an University: Natural Science Edition, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200406016.htm [13] 郭应时, 袁伟, 付锐. 道路安全审计及其应用[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2005, 25(4): 56-58. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2005.04.014Guo Ying-shi, Yuan Wei, Fu Rui. Road safety audit(RSA)andits application in existing road[J]. Journal of Chang an University: Natural Science Edition, 2005, 25(4): 56-58. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2005.04.014 [14] 郭应时, 袁伟, 付锐. 道路交通安全评价指标特性分析[J]. 公路交通科技, 2006, 23(5): 102-104. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLJK200605025.htmGuo Ying-shi, Yuan Wei, Fu Rui. Research on characteristics of assessment indexes for road safety[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2006, 23(5): 102-104. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLJK200605025.htm [15] 中国统计年鉴编辑部. 中国统计年鉴(1991-2004)[R]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2004. [16] 中国交通年鉴编辑部. 中国交通年鉴(1991-2004)[R]. 北京: 中国交通年鉴社, 2005. [17] 陈斌. 基于支持向量机的高速公路意外事件检测模型[J]. 中国公路学报, 2006, 19(6): 107-112. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200606020.htmChen Bin. Freeway accident detection model based on support vector machine[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2006, 19(6): 107-112. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200606020.htm -
点击查看大图
表(4)
计量
- 文章访问数: 253
- HTML全文浏览量: 111
- PDF下载量: 851
- 被引次数: 0
