Attribute mathematical recognition model of development level of urban public transportation
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摘要: 为了合理评价城市公共交通发展水平, 构建了城市公共交通发展水平评价指标体系与分级标准, 提出了属性数学识别模型。应用变异系数法确定评价指标的权重, 根据单指标的属性测度值与多指标的综合属性测度值, 利用置信度准则识别城市公共交通发展水平。评价结果表明: 青岛市公共交通发展水平属于较高等级, 与民意调查结果相吻合, 而且还可知青岛市的公交设施水平属于高级, 服务水平与效益水平属于中等, 因此, 该模型可行。Abstract: In order to rationally evaluate the development level of urban public transportation, its measure index system and grade standard were put forward, and an attribute mathematical recognition model was set up.The weights of the indices were determined by variation coefficient method, and the level was identified by using confidence rule according to the attribute measure values of single index and multiple indices.Evaluation result shows that the development level of public transportation in Qingdao City belongs to fairly high grade, which accords with the result of opinion poll, moreover, the level of its public transportation facilities belongs to high level, the levels of its service and benefit belong to middle level, so the model is feasible.
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表 1 评价指标体系及分级标准
Table 1. Evaluation index system and grade standard
总指标 一级指标 二级指标 评价指标分级标准 高 较高 中 低 城市公共交通发展水平I 设施水平I1 公交车辆拥有率U1/ (辆·万人-1) 12.00 10.65 7.65 6.00 公交线网密度U2/% 3.50 3.00 1.75 1.00 年度基建投资额U3/万元 200 150 75 50 公交站点覆盖率U4/% 90 80 60 50 车辆进场率U5/% 95.0 87.5 72.5 65.0 服务水平I2 安全行驶间隔里程U6/104km 150 125 75 50 平均站距U7/km 0.30 0.35 0.50 0.60 换乘距离U8/m 75.0 112.5 175.0 200.0 换乘率U9/% 22 31 50 60 乘客候车时间U10/min 3.0 4.0 6.5 8.0 运送速度U11/ (km·h-1) 25.0 22.5 17.5 15.0 乘客平均出行时间U12/min 25.0 30.0 42.5 50.0 行车准点率U13/% 95.0 90.0 67.5 50.0 高峰满载率U14/% 50.0 55.0 72.5 85.0 平峰满载率U15/% 40 45 55 60 客运费率U16 35.0 45.0 77.5 100.0 效益水平I3 里程利用率U17/% 90 85 75 70 千车公里成本U18/千元 1.50 2.00 3.75 5.00 千车公里收入U19/千元 6.00 4.75 2.65 1.80 全员劳动生产率U20/ (万元·人-1) 10.0 8.0 4.0 2.0 运营车辆人车比U21 2.0 2.5 4.0 5.0 公交分担率U22/% 80 70 50 40 公交节约出行时间U23/min 15.0 11.5 5.0 2.0 
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表 2 指标实际值
Table 2. Actual index value
指标 U1 U2 U3 U4 U5 U6 U7 U8 U9 U10 U11 U12 实际值 19.00 6.47 150 75 87.0 413 0.50 80.0 45 4.0 17.0 40.0 指标 U13 U14 U15 U16 U17 U18 U19 U20 U21 U22 U23 实际值 90.0 84.0 65 40.0 83 1.93 2.30 5.2 2.0 23 6.0
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表 3 二级单指标属性测度值
Table 3. Attribute measure value of second grade single index
等级 U1 U2 U3 U4 U5 U6 U7 U8 U9 U10 U11 U12 高 1.000 0 1.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 1.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 较高 0.000 0 0.000 0 1.000 0 0.750 0 0.966 7 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.866 7 0.263 2 1.000 0 0.100 0 0.200 0 中 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.250 0 0.033 3 0.000 0 1.000 0 0.133 3 0.736 8 0.000 0 0.900 0 0.800 0 低 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 等级 U13 U14 U15 U16 U17 U18 U19 U20 U21 U22 U23 高 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.500 0 0.000 0 0.140 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 1.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 较高 1.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.500 0 0.800 0 0.860 0 0.000 0 0.300 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.153 8 中 0.000 0 0.080 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.200 0 0.000 0 0.588 2 0.700 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.846 2 低 0.000 0 0.920 0 1.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.411 8 0.000 0 0.000 0 1.000 0 0.000 0
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表 4 一级指标和总指标的属性测度值
Table 4. Attribute measure values of first grade and integrated indices
指标 等级 高 较高 中 低 I1 0.440 1 0.520 7 0.039 2 0.000 0 I2 0.179 7 0.405 5 0.309 2 0.105 6 I3 0.151 8 0.263 1 0.423 8 0.161 3 I 0.223 1 0.377 9 0.295 1 0.104 0
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