Determining method of dangerous areas around tropical cyclone based on multisource forecasts
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摘要: 为了提高热带气旋信息的完整性与准确性, 分析了目前确定热带气旋中心周围危险区域的方法, 提出了基于多源预报的热带气旋中心周围危险区域的确定方法。根据中、日、美三国对热带气旋中心位置的预报结果, 求出预报的离散度, 由预报位置与平均误差的关系, 得出热带气旋90%落入概率的概率圆范围, 然后将大风浪半径套在此概率圆的外面, 可得到充分考虑多家热带气旋预报结果的热带气旋中心周围大风浪危险区域。可见, 此方法提高了热带气旋预报圆的落入概率, 有力保障了船舶绕避热带气旋的安全性。Abstract: In order to improve the integrity and accuacy of tropical cyclone(TC) information, the present methods of determining the dangerous areas around TC were analyzed, and a new method based on multisource forecasts was proposed. According to the forecasting results of TC center positons made by China, Japan and the United States, forecasting discrete values were computed. From the relation between forecasting positions and average errors, the radius of 90% TC falling probability circle was got. Covering the radius of strong wind or rough sea area outside the probability circle, the dangerous areas around TC center were got based on considering different TC forecasting results. Obviously, the method improves the falling probability of TC forecasting circle, and strongly guarantees the safety of ships' avoiding TC.
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Key words:
- maritime traffic safety /
- ship /
- tropical cyclone /
- dangerous area /
- avoidance routing /
- multisource data fusion
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表 1 预报距离误差
Table 1. Errors of TC track forecasts
表 2 TC周围危险区域的划定
Table 2. Determination of dangerous areas around TC
表 3 不同离散度下的90%落入概率圆半径
Table 3. Radii of 90% falling probability with different discrete values
表 4 不同预报台预报结果统计
Table 4. Statistic on results of different forecasters
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