Calculation method of economic evaluation indices for highway engineering project
Article Text (Baidu Translation)
-
摘要: 为了对含有模糊基础数据和参数的公路工程项目方案进行有效评价, 建立了评价指标体系, 将评价指标分为梯形与三角形模糊变量, 在同一可能空间上或不同可能空间上进行模糊运算, 由Zadeh扩展原理得到模糊变量的隶属度, 利用模糊模拟技术计算模糊变量的可信值、关键值与期望值, 并利用计算值对项目进行了评价。评价结果表明: 评价项目的模糊期望净现值大于0, 可信值达到100%, 说明项目可行, 评价结果客观。Abstract: To effectively evaluate the alternatives of highway engineering project with fuzzy basic data and parameters, an economic evaluation indices system was set up, the indices were proposed as trapezoidal and triangular variables, their fuzzy calculations were completed in the same or different possible spaces, the membership of every index was gained by using Zadeh's expansion principle, the credibility value, key value and expectation value of every index were computed by using fuzzy simulation technique, and the alternatives were evaluated based on the computation values.Evaluation result shows that the fuzzy expectation net present value of the alternative is more than 0, the credibility value is 100%, so the alternative is feasible, and the outcome of the evaluation is objective.
-
Key words:
- road engineering /
- engineering project /
- index system /
- fuzzy simulation technique
-
[1] 刘晓君. 工程经济学[M]. 北京: 中国建筑工业出版社, 2003. [2] 张三省. 工程经济学[M]. 西安: 世界图书出版社, 2005. [3] 陈传德, 张明远. 基于风险分析的公路项目投资决策[J]. 中国公路学报, 2006, 19(1): 99-103. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200601020.htmCHEN Chuan-de, ZHANG Ming-yuan. Investment decision for highway project based on risk analysis[J]. China Journal ofHighway and Transport, 2006, 19(1): 99-103. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200601020.htm [4] 向寿生, 赵彦锋. 模糊随机条件下工程项目经济评价[J]. 西北大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 38(3), 404-406. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XBDZ200803015.htmXI ANG Shou-sheng, ZHAO Yan-feng. Astudy on economic evaluation for alternatives of engineering project on fuzzy and random condition[J]. Journal of Northwest University: Natural Science Edition, 2008, 38(3): 404-406. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XBDZ200803015.htm [5] LI UBao-ding, LI U Yan-kui. Expected value of fuzzy variable and fuzzy expected models[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2002, 10(4): 445-450. doi: 10.1109/TFUZZ.2002.800692 [6] LI U Yan-kui, LI U Bao-ding. Fuzzy random variables: ascalar expected value operator[J]. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2003, 2(2): 143-160. doi: 10.1023/A:1023447217758 [7] 刘宝碇, 赵瑞清, 王纲. 不确定规划及应用[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2006. [8] 宋业新, 陈永冰, 费军. 模糊状态概率下的组合投资决策[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2004, 26(6): 751-753. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTYD200406013.htmSONG Ye-xin, CHEN Yong-bing, FEI Jun. Decision making of investment combination with fuzzy state probability[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2004, 26(6): 751-753. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTYD200406013.htm [9] 李建新, 胡刚. 基于模糊概率的股价波动分析模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2006, 26(9): 33-42. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL200609004.htmLI Jian-xin, HU Gang. Stock-price fluctuation analyses basedon fuzzy probability[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2006, 26(9): 33-42. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL200609004.htm [10] CEGIZ H K. Optimization of multilevel invest ments using dynamic programming based on fuzzy cash flows[J]. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2003, 2(2): 101-122. -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(1)
计量
- 文章访问数: 387
- HTML全文浏览量: 133
- PDF下载量: 260
- 被引次数: 0
