Calculation method of reliability for driving behavior based on monotone coherent system
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摘要: 为合理评估驾驶员驾驶行为的可靠性, 提出了驾驶行为可靠度计算方法, 将人机系统可靠性理论与驾驶行为链相结合, 构建了基于感知、判断、操作元件及模块组的驾驶行为可靠性框图, 确定了单项器官元件可靠度测试与计算方法, 运用单调关联系统理论给出了功能模块可靠度及驾驶行为系统可靠度的量化模型, 计算了模型中各生理、心理元件概率重要度, 分析了其对驾驶行为的影响度。计算结果表明: 事故组与非事故组间行为可靠性存在明显差异, 非事故组的可靠性整体大于事故组, 但整体可靠性呈下降趋势, 事故组驾驶员整体操作稳定性较差; 生理因素对驾驶行为可靠度影响度前期较大后期较小, 而心理因素则相反。Abstract: In order to evaluate the reliability of driving behavior, a calculation method was put forward, with the combination of human-machine system reliability theory and driving behavior chain, a reliability diagram was constructed which included sensitivity, judgment, operation elements and their modules, the reliability test and calculation method for every apparatus element were ensured, the reliability quantitative models for function modules and driving behavior system were calculated based on monotone coherent system theory, the probability importances of every physiological and psychological elements were computed, and their influence degrees on driving behavior were analyzed.Computation result shows that there is an obvious reliability difference between accident group and non-accident group, non-accident group has better reliability than accident group, its whole reliability shows a downward trend, the drivers' whole operation stabilities in accident group are worse; the impact of physiological factor on driving behavior reliability is larger in the pre-period than the latter period, while psychological factor is opposite.
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