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摘要: 为了提高公交运营效率与候车乘客的安全性, 考虑了节约成本与方便实施的原则, 从常规公交车上下客预知系统设置的概念出发, 分析了公交预知系统的效益, 提出了基于候车乘客发出信息与驾驶员接收信息过程的预知系统设计思路, 给出了预知系统信息发布半径的确定方法, 研究了实现预知系统功能的设置方法。实际应用表明: 在系统设置后, 公交车经过公交站点时, 平均运行效率提高了43.1人·s, 总体效益提高明显, 系统应用性强。Abstract: In order to improve the operating efficiency of bus and the security of waiting passengers, application cost and working convenience were considered, the concept of forecast system on passenger up and down buses was defined, the benefit of forecast system was analyzed, the design process of the system was put forward based on riding information put out by passengers and received by drivers, the method to calculate the radius of forecast system was given, the way to realize the function of the system was researched.Application result indicates that the average operation efficiency of buses increases by 43.1人·s at every traffic station, so the benefit is obvious, the system is feasible.
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Key words:
- public traffic /
- bus /
- system analysis /
- forecast system
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表 1 上下客人数
Table 1. Numbers of passengers up and down buses
日期 周一 周二 周三 周四 周五 站序 站名 上车人数/人 下车人数/人 上车人数/人 下车人数/人 上车人数/人 下车人数/人 上车人数/人 下车人数/人 上车人数/人 下车人数/人 1 陈漕湾 6 4 2 1 7 6 4 4 3 4 2 钱桥 8 5 9 9 5 5 3 3 4 3 3 印刷厂 2 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 公路处 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 5 民干村 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 6 石门下 0 0 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 7 陵园 3 3 3 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 8 惠畅里 4 3 1 0 2 4 0 1 2 1 9 惠山 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 1 0 10 海渔村 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 3 11 广场 3 3 3 2 5 2 5 3 3 2 12 五爱路 3 4 2 1 3 2 0 0 1 1 13 胜利门 4 3 6 5 8 7 3 4 1 2 陈漕湾站之前车上的乘客数/人 11 12 14 10 13 
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表 2 公交车速
Table 2. Bus velocities
项目 日期 周一 周二 周三 周四 周五 行驶车速/(km·h-1) 43 41 46 47 44 行程车速/(km·h-1) 34 33 35 36 34
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表 3 平均上下车人数及产生率
Table 3. Average numbers and natalities of passengers up and down buses
站点 平均上车人数/人 平均下车人数/人 乘客生成合计/人 乘客产生率/人·s-1 无上下客概率 陈漕湾 4.4 3.8 8.2 0.027 0.000 27 钱桥 5.8 5.0 10.8 0.036 0.000 02 印刷厂 1.6 0.6 2.2 0.007 0.110 80 公路处 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.003 0.449 33 民干村 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.005 0.246 60 石门下 1.6 1.0 2.6 0.009 0.074 27 陵园 2.2 2.4 4.6 0.015 0.010 05 惠畅里 1.8 1.8 3.6 0.012 0.027 32 惠山 1.8 1.6 3.4 0.011 0.033 37 海渔村 1.6 1.2 2.8 0.009 0.060 81 广场 3.8 2.4 6.2 0.021 0.002 03 五爱路 1.8 1.6 3.4 0.011 0.033 37 胜利门 4.4 4.2 8.6 0.029 0.000 18
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