Risk analysis on Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel investment based on analytic hierarchy process
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摘要: 为了评估渤海海峡跨海通道项目的投资风险, 利用层次分析法进行了投资风险分析, 分解了影响渤海海峡跨海通道项目的各项因素, 按各因素对项目总风险影响大小进行排序, 分析了在项目进展过程中最应该把握的关键因素。分析结果表明: 各子项目的影响程度从大到小依次是地理条件、技术水平、意外事件、资金、资源利用和政策法规; 按风险由大到小将风险划分为4个级别, 海底地质情况风险最大, 防灾救援系统、照明系统等隧道项目中的基础功能设施风险较大, 洞口防洪设施、隧道监控系统等设施风险较小, 规划预留功能风险最小; 最后对结果进行了解释, 项目规划者与投资者可以参考分析结果进行风险管理。Abstract: In order to evaluate the risk of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel, analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was applied, the factors of impacting the project were decomposed, the various factors were ranked based on the risk degree to the project, and several key factors for the project were studied.Analysis result indicates that the factors of impacting the project from large to small are geographical conditions, technological level, accidents, capital, resource use, policy and legislation.Four ranks are divided based on the risk degree to the project, the risk of submarine geology conditions is the highest, the risks of disaster prevention and rescue system and lighting system in tunnel project are higher, the risks of flood prevention facilities and tunnel monitoring system are lower, and the risk of plan function is the lowest.Last the results are explained, and the planners and investors of the project can carry out the risk management according to the result.
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Key words:
- transportation economy /
- risk analysis /
- analytic hierarchy process /
- cross-sea channel
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表 1 Di的内容
Table 1. Content of Di
C2投融资方式D1 C2利率水平D2 C2内含报酬率D3 C2投资环境D4 C3照明系统D5 C3供电系统D6 C3给排水系统D7 C3横向联络通道D8 C3通风系统D9 C3防灾救援系统D10 C3洞口防洪设施D11 C3隧道监控设施D12 C4减压管道D13 C4转线轨道D14 C4通风系统D15 C4防灾救援系统D16 C4信号系统D17 C5监控系统D18 C5通讯电缆D19 C5旅游观光通道D20 C5输油管道D21 C5管道输气D22 C8潮流D23 C8泥沙移动D24 C8海底地质D25 C8海水冲击D26 C9气候特征D27 C9主要灾害性天气D28 
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表 2 相对重要性的含义
Table 2. Meaning of relative significance
标度 含义 1 表示2个因素相比, 具有相同重要性 3 表示2个因素相比, 前者比后者稍重要 5 表示2个因素相比, 前者比后者明显重要 7 表示2个因素相比, 前者比后者强烈重要 9 表示2个因素相比, 前者比后者极端重要 2、4、6、8 表示上述相邻判断的中间值 倒数 若因素i与因素j的重要性之比为aij, 那么因素j与因素i重要性之比为
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表 3 标准层的特征向量
Table 3. Eigenvectors of standard layers
A B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 权重 B1 0.079 8 0.092 6 0.200 0 0.066 9 0.115 4 0.070 4 0.102 0 B2 0.239 4 0.277 7 0.280 0 0.334 3 0.307 7 0.211 3 0.272 9 B3 0.016 0 0.039 7 0.040 0 0.055 7 0.038 5 0.042 3 0.037 7 B4 0.398 9 0.277 7 0.240 0 0.334 3 0.307 7 0.422 5 0.334 8 B5 0.026 6 0.034 7 0.040 0 0.041 8 0.038 5 0.042 3 0.036 8 B6 0.239 4 0.277 7 0.200 0 0.167 1 0.192 3 0.211 3 0.215 8
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表 4 自由度指标的取值
Table 4. Values of RI
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RI 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.89 1.12 1.26 1.36 1.41 n 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 RI 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.59
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表 5 因素权重
Table 5. Factor weights
B1 C1 1.000 0 0.020 4 0.102 0 0.020 4 C2 D1 0.282 8 0.081 6 0.023 1 D2 0.416 1 0.034 0 D3 0.189 0 0.015 4 D4 0.112 0 0.009 1 B2 C3 D5 0.093 4 0.062 7 0.272 9 0.005 9 D6 0.195 2 0.012 2 D7 0.051 7 0.003 2 D8 0.238 2 0.014 9 D9 0.051 2 0.003 2 D10 0.147 6 0.009 3 D11 0.111 4 0.007 0 D12 0.111 4 0.007 0 C4 D13 0.096 9 0.176 9 0.017 1 D14 0.274 9 0.048 6 D15 0.038 9 0.006 9 D16 0.335 4 0.059 3 D17 0.037 1 0.006 6 C5 D18 0.216 7 0.033 3 0.007 2 D19 0.133 9 0.004 5 D20 0.362 0 0.012 1 D21 0.057 2 0.001 9 D22 0.442 3 0.014 7 B3 C6 1.000 0 0.009 4 0.037 7 0.009 4 C7 1.000 0 0.028 3 0.028 3 B4 C8 D23 0.275 3 0.279 0 0.334 8 0.076 8 D24 0.230 8 0.064 4 D25 0.229 0 0.063 9 D26 0.264 8 0.073 9 C9 D27 0.666 7 0.055 8 0.037 2 D28 0.333 3 0.018 6 B5 C10 1.000 0 0.036 8 0.036 8 C11 1.000 0 0.036 8 B6 0.215 8 0.215 8
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