Choice behaviour model and influencing factor analysis of travel destination for rural resident
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摘要: 为分析农村居民出行目的地选择的影响因素与影响过程, 应用自主设计的调查问卷, 获得3 329份农村人口出行特征数据。按照农村居民常规出行目的地分布情况, 将目的地划分为邻村、乡镇、县城和市区。运用非集计理论, 将农村居民的性别、年龄、教育程度、家庭年总收入、出行目的和出行距离等个人、家庭和出行属性作为影响因素, 并将4个目的地作为4个选择肢, 建立了农村居民出行目的地选择行为度量模型, 并结合弹性理论分析了各个影响因素的敏感度。分析结果表明: 农村居民的出行属性中出行距离和出行目的2个影响因素对应的弹性值均大于1, 说明这些因素对出行目的地选择富有弹性, 影响显著; 年龄、是否换乘和所需时间3个因素对部分目的地的选择富有弹性; 性别、受教育程度、家庭年总收入和出行时间4个因素对应的弹性值均小于1, 说明这些因素对出行目的地选择缺乏弹性。Abstract: In order to analyze the influencing factors and influencing process of travel destination choice for rural residents, travel characteristic data of 3 329 rural residents were obtained through self-designed questionnaire.According to the distribution of conventional travel destinations of rural residents, the destinations were divided into neighboring villages, towns, counties and cities.Using disaggregate theory, personal, family and travel attributes such as rural residents genders, ages, education levels, annual household incomes, travel purposes and travel distances were considered as influencing factors, and four destinations were selected as four alternative parts, the travel destination choice behavior measurement model was established.The sensibility of each factor was analyzed combined with elastic theory.Analyhsis result shows that the corresponding elasticity values of travel distance and travel destination of rural resident are greater than 1, indicating that the above-mentioned factors on the travel destination choice are of flexibility and significant effect.The age, transfer and time are of flexibility for some destination choice, the corresponding elasticity values of genders, education levels, annual household incomes and total travel time are less than 1, indicating that the above-mentioned factors on the travel destination choice are of no inflexibility.
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Key words:
- traffic planning /
- rural resident /
- travel destination /
- travel characteristic /
- MNL model /
- sensitivity analysis
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