Average waiting time model for passengers transfering from high-speed railway to bus
-
摘要: 分析了高铁乘客换乘常规公交等候时间的特性, 实测了高铁枢纽内公交站台乘客的到达时间, 对乘客到达时间进行了分布拟合与K-S检验。基于概率论方法, 建立了考虑公交车辆运载能力限制的乘客平均等候时间模型, 验证了模型的有效性, 并仿真分析了高铁列车与公交车辆到达时间间隔、换乘人数、公交车辆运载能力及公交车辆准点率对乘客平均等候时间的影响。仿真结果表明: 当高铁列车到达时间间隔为10min, 公交车辆到达时间间隔从200s增加至600s时, 换乘乘客的平均等候时间由120s增加至1 000s;当公交车辆的运载能力为50人·veh-1, 换乘人数从50增加至200时, 换乘乘客的平均等候时间由100s增加至900s;当公交车辆平均到达时间间隔为200s, 公交车辆到达时间间隔标准差从0增加至400s时, 换乘乘客的平均等候时间由110s增加至800s。换乘乘客的平均等候时间与公交车辆到达时间间隔呈正相关关系, 与高铁列车到达时间间隔呈负相关关系, 与换乘人数呈正相关关系, 与公交车辆的准点率呈负相关关系。Abstract: The characteristics of the waiting times of passengers transfering from high-speed railway to bus were analyzed, the actual arrival times of passengers at bus stations in high-speed railway hubs were tested, the distribution of passenger arrival times was fitted, and K-S test was carried out. Based on probabilistic theory, the average waiting time model was set up by considering the limitation of bus carrying capacity, the validity of the proposed model was verified, and the influences of the arrival time intervals of high-speed train and bus, transfer passenger amount, bus carrying capacity and bus punctuality rate on the average waiting time of passengers were simulated. Simulation result indicates that when the arrival time interval of highspeed train is 10 min and the arrival time interval of bus increases from 200 sto 600 s, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 120 sto 1 000 s. When bus carrying capacity is 50 people·veh-1 and transfer passenger amount increases from 50 to 200, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 100 sto 900 s. When the average arrival time interval of bus is 200 sand the standard deviation of bus arrival time interval increases from 0 to 400 s, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 110 sto 800 s. The average waiting time of transfer passengers has a positive correlation with bus arrival time interval, a negative correlation with the arrival time interval of high-speed train, apositive correlation with transfer passenger amount, and a negative correlation with bus punctuality rate.
-
Key words:
- traffic planning /
- public transit /
- numerical simulation /
- transfer /
- average waiting time
-
图 1 20路公交车乘客到达人数与到达时间分布
Figure 1. Distributions of passengers arrival amounts and arrival times of line 20bus
图 2 11路公交车乘客到达人数与到达时间分布
Figure 2. Distributions of passengers arrival amounts and arrival times of line 11bus
图 5 高铁列车与公交车辆到达时间间隔对平均等候时间的影响
Figure 5. Influences of arrival time intervals of high-speed train and bus on average waiting time
图 6 换乘人数与公交车辆运载能力对平均等候时间的影响
Figure 6. Influences of transfer passenger amount and bus carrying capacity on average waiting time
图 7 公交车辆平均到达时间间隔与到达时间间隔的标准差对平均等候时间的影响
Figure 7. Influences of average arrival time interval of bus and standard deviation of bus arrival time interval on average waiting time
表 2 20路公交车乘客到达时间K-S检验结果
Table 2. K-S test result of passengers arrival times for line 20bus
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 11路公交车乘客到达时间K-S检验结果
Table 3. K-S test result of passengers arrival times for line 11bus
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] WARDMAN M. A review of British evidence on time and service quality valuations[J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2001, 37 (2/3): 107-128. [2] MULLER C, GOSLING G D. A framework for evaluating level of service for airport terminals[J]. Transportation Planning and Technology, 1991, 16 (1): 45-61. doi: 10.1080/03081069108717470 [3] TUMQUIST M A. Strategies for improving reliability of bus transit service[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1981 (818): 7-13. [4] KNOPPERS P, MULLER T. Optimized transfer opportunities in public transport[J]. Transportation Science, 1995, 29 (1): 101-105. doi: 10.1287/trsc.29.1.101 [5] CHIEN S I. Optimization of headway, vehicle size and route choice for minimum cost feeder service[J]. Transportation Planning and Technology, 2005, 28 (5): 359-380. doi: 10.1080/03081060500322565 [6] SEDDON P A, DAY M P. Bus passenger waiting time in great Manchester[J]. Traffic Engineering and Control, 1974, 15 (9): 422-445. [7] HSU S C. Determinants of passenger transfer waiting time at multi-modal connecting stations[J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2010, 46 (3): 404-413. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2009.12.002 [8] 杨晓光, 周雪梅, 臧华. 基于ITS环境的公共汽车交通换乘时间最短调度问题研究[J]. 系统工程, 2003, 21 (2): 56-59. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCXT200302011.htmYANG Xiao-guang, ZHOU Xue-mei, ZANG Hua. A study on deadheading in minimum time of public transfer under the condition of ITS[J]. Systems Engineering, 2003, 21 (2): 56-59. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCXT200302011.htm [9] 周雪梅, 杨晓光. 基于ITS的公共交通换乘等待时间最短调度问题研究[J]. 中国公路学报, 2004, 17 (2): 82-84, 123. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2004.02.018ZHOU Xue-mei, YANG Xiao-guang. Study of dispatching at minimum waiting time of public transportation transfer under the condition of ITS[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2004, 17 (2): 82-84, 123. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2004.02.018 [10] 卢伟. 基于信息服务的公交枢纽换乘时间模型的研究[J]. 佳木斯大学学报: 自然科学版, 2007, 25 (2): 175-177, 195. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JMDB200702011.htmLU Wei. Study on public traffic hinge transfer time model based on the information service[J]. Journal of Jiamusi University: Natural Science Edition, 2007, 25 (2): 175-177, 195. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JMDB200702011.htm [11] 姚凤金, 杨浩. 旅客枢纽换乘时间调度研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2008, 8 (1): 133-137. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6744.2008.01.023YAO Feng-jin, YANG Hao. On transferring time scheduling of passenger hubs[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2008, 8 (1): 133-137. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6744.2008.01.023 [12] 付延冰, 陈治亚. 基于随机分析的公交站点乘客等车时间[J]. 系统工程, 2009, 27 (6): 119-122. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCXT200906020.htmFU Yan-bing, CHEN Zhi-ya. The waiting time of the passenger based on the stochastic analysis[J]. Systems Engineering, 2009, 27 (6): 119-122. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCXT200906020.htm [13] 曹莲英, 侯琳, 李文勇. 多目标演化算法在公交车辆发车间隔优化中的应用[J]. 东南大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009, 39 (增1): 260-265. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DNDX2009S1052.htmCAO Lian-ying, HOU Lin, LI Wen-yong. Application of multiobjective evolutionary algorithm in bus departing interval optimization[J]. Journal of Southeast University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 39 (S1): 260-265. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DNDX2009S1052.htm [14] 陈旭梅, 林国鑫, 于雷. 常规公共交通与轨道交通运营调度协调模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2009, 29 (10): 165-173. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL200910022.htmCHEN Xu-mei, LIN Guo-xin, YU Lei. Modeling operation scheduling coordination between urban rail system and bus system[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory and Practice, 2009, 29 (10): 165-173. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL200910022.htm [15] 张宇石, 陈旭梅, 于雷, 等. 基于换乘站点的轨道交通与常规公交运营协调模型研究[J]. 铁道学报, 2009, 31 (3): 11-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8360.2009.03.003ZHANG Yu-shi, CHEN Xu-mei, YU Lei, et al. Study on model of coordinated operation between urban rail and bus systems at transfer stations[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2009, 31 (3): 11-19. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8360.2009.03.003 [16] 陈鹏, 严新平, 李旭宏, 等. 轨道交通与常规公交计划调度协调模型[J]. 吉林大学学报: 工学版, 2011, 41 (4): 950-955. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JLGY201104010.htmCHEN Peng, YAN Xin-ping, LI Xu-hong, et al. Schedule coordination model between rail transit and bus transit[J]. Journal of Jilin University: Engineering and Technology Edition, 2011, 41 (4): 950-955. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JLGY201104010.htm [17] 郭淑霞, 陈旭梅, 于雷, 等. 轨道交通换乘常规公交平均候车时间模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2012, 10 (2): 143-147. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSXT201002024.htmGUO Shu-xia, CHEN Xu-mei, YU Lei, et al. Average waiting time model for transfer from rail transit to buses[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2012, 10 (2): 143-147. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSXT201002024.htm [18] TAYLOR M A P. Travel time variability—the case of two public modes[J]. Transportation Science, 1982, 16 (4): 507-521. doi: 10.1287/trsc.16.4.507 [19] BATES J, POLAK J, JONES P, et al. The valuation of reliability for personal travel[J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2001, 37 (2/3): 191-229. [20] WONG R C, YUEN T W, FUNG K W, et al. Optimizing timetable synchronization for rail mass transit[J]. Transportation Science, 2008, 42 (1): 57-69. doi: 10.1287/trsc.1070.0200 [21] WELDING P I. The instability of a close-interval service[J]. Operational Research Quarterly, 1957, 8 (3): 133-142. doi: 10.1057/jors.1957.21 [22] OSUNA E E, NEWELL G F. Central strategies for an idealized public transport system[J]. Transportation Science, 1972, 6 (1): 52-72. doi: 10.1287/trsc.6.1.52 -
点击查看大图
图(7) / 表(5)
计量
- 文章访问数: 602
- HTML全文浏览量: 81
- PDF下载量: 1098
- 被引次数: 0
