Impact of rail transit construction on residential location choice
-
摘要: 为了预测轨道交通建设对沿线居住区位选择的影响, 结合居民工资水平、交通可达性与住房价格等建立居民消费剩余模型, 建立了居住地Logit选择模型来确定因交通流量分布改变而导致的居住区位选择分布; 借助居民居住地与交通工具联合选择模型, 确定路面交通流量变化, 进而获得轨道交通运营后因交通成本变化引起的不同工资水平居民的居住选择变化情况, 分析了轨道交通建成导致住宅价格增长给居民的居住区位选择行为带来的二次影响; 以单中心城市为背景, 设定10个轨道交通站点为研究对象, 分别计算了8类不同工资类型的居民在轨道交通建设与房价增长后, 在10个轨道交通站点居住区位选择的变化。分析结果表明: 轨道交通建成后居民向远离城市中心的方向移动, 但工资水平较低的居民时间价值较低, 居住选择受其建成影响较小; 随着轨道交通沿线居住区位可达性的提升, 轨道交通附近房价增长, 最远的居住区位平均每平米房价增长2 619元, 最近的居住区位平均每平米房价增长11.5元, 与此同时, 工资水平较高的居民向城市中心移动, 工资水平较低的居民向远离城市中心的方向移动。Abstract: To forecast how the rail transit construction affects the residential location choice, a customer surplus model by considering residents' salary level, transportation accessibility, and housing price was established, and a residential location logit choice model was set up to determine the residential location distribution due to the variation of traffic flow distribution. By using the combined model of residents' residential location choice and transportation means choice, the road traffic flow variation was firstly determined, and then the residential location choices for residents with different salary levels were obtained, which was caused by the travel cost variation after rail transit operation. The secondary effect of housing price appreciation after rail transit construction on residents' residential location choices was analyzed. Based on a monocentric city, 10 rail transit stations were designed as research objectives, the variations of residential location choices were calculated along 10 rail transit stations for citizens with 8 kinds of salary classes after the rail transit construction and the housing price appreciation. Analysis result shows that the residents move away from the city center after rail transit construction, although the residents with lower salary are scarcely affected due to their low value of time. Withthe improvement of residential location accessibility along rail transit, the housing price near the rail transit rises, i.e., the housing price increases by 2 619 yuan per square meter in the farthest residential location, and 11.5 yuan per square meter in the nearest residential location. Simultaneously, the residents with higher salary move forward to the city center, while the residents with lower salary move away from the city center.
-
Key words:
- traffic engineering /
- rail transit /
- customer surplus /
- logit model /
- residential location choice
-
图 2 轨道交通建设前、后居民居住区位分布(较高工资水平)
Figure 2. Residential location distributions before and after rail transit construction (higher salary level)
图 3 轨道交通建设前、后居民居住区位分布(较低工资水平)
Figure 3. Residential location distributions before and after rail transit construction (lower salary level)
图 4 轨道交通建设后各居住区位居民居住分布变化
Figure 4. Residential location distribution variations after rail transit construction
图 5 房价增长前、后居民居住区位分布(较高工资水平)
Figure 5. Residential location distributions before and after housing price appreciation (higher salary level)
图 6 房价增长前、后居民居住区位分布(较低工资水平)
Figure 6. Residential location distributions before and after housing price appreciation (lower salary level)
表 1 行驶速度比与流量-容量比关系
Table 1. Relationship between traffic speed ratio and flow-capacity ratio
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 各工资水平人口比例及其对应汽车拥有比例
Table 2. Proportions of residents with different salary levels and proportions of car-owners
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 各居住区位房价及公共基础设施水平
Table 3. Housing prices and public infrastructure levels in various residential locations
下载: 导出CSV
表 4 轨道交通建设前各工资类型居民在各居住区位的居住人数
Table 4. Numbers of residents with different salary classes in residential locations before rail transit constructions
下载: 导出CSV
表 5 轨道交通建设后各工资类型居民在各居住区位的居住人数(运营速度1)
Table 5. Numbers of residents with different salary classes in residential locations after rail transit construction (operation speed 1)
下载: 导出CSV
表 6 轨道交通建设后各工资类型居民在各居住区位的居住人数(运营速度2)
Table 6. Numbers of residents with different salary classes in residential locations after rail transit construction (operation speed 2)
下载: 导出CSV
表 7 轨道交通建设后房价增长(运营速度1)
Table 7. Housing price appreciations after rail transit construction (operation speed 1)
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] ALONSO W. A theory of the urban land market[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 1960, 6 (1): 149-157. [2] BROWN B. Location and housing demand[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1985, 17 (1): 30-41. doi: 10.1016/0094-1190(85)90035-X [3] BERLIANT M, FUJITA M. Alonso's discrete population model of land use: efficient locations and competitive equilibria[J]. International Economic Review, 1992, 33 (3): 535-556. doi: 10.2307/2527125 [4] KII M, DOI K. Multiagent land-use and transport model for the policy evaluation of a compact city[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2005, 32(4): 485-504. doi: 10.1068/b3081 [5] DIAMONDD B. Income and residential location: Muth revisited[J]. Urban Studies, 1980, 17 (1): 1-12. doi: 10.1080/00420988020080011 [6] GWAMNAE S, YUSOFF W Z W, ISMAIL M F. Determinants of land use and property value[J]. Advanced Science Letters, 2015, 21 (5): 1150-1153. doi: 10.1166/asl.2015.6065 [7] LI Zhi-chun, LAM W H K, WONG S C, et al. Modeling the effects of integrated rail property development on the design of rail line services in a linear monocentric city[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2012, 46 (6): 710-728. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2012.01.004 [8] CAO Xin-yu, PORTER-NELSON D. Real estate development in anticipation of green line light rail transit in St. Paul[J]. Transport Policy, 2016, 51: 24-32. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.01.007 [9] TILLEMA T, VAN WEE B, ETTEMA D. The influence of (toll-related) travel costs in residential location decisions of households: a stated choice approach[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2010, 44 (10): 785-796. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2010.07.009 [10] 史进, 童昕, 张洪谋, 等. 基于UrbanSim的城市居住与就业空间互动模拟——以宜昌市为例[J]. 北京大学学报: 自然科学版, 2013, 49 (6): 1065-1074. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJDZ201306017.htmSHI Jin, TONG Xin, ZHANG Hong-mou, et al. Spatial interaction of urban residence and workplace: an UrbanSim application in Yichang, China[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2013, 49 (6): 1065-1074. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJDZ201306017.htm [11] 邓林, 闫妍, 朱晓武, 等. 基于Agent-Based Model的住房市场演化问题研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015, 35 (7): 1708-1716. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL201507009.htmDENG Lin, YAN Yan, ZHU Xiao-wu, et al. Research on the housing market evolution based on Agent-Based Model[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory and Practice, 2015, 35 (7): 1708-1716. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL201507009.htm [12] YING Jiang-qian. Optimization for multiclass residential location models with congestible transportation networks[J]. Transportation Science, 2015, 49 (3): 452-471. doi: 10.1287/trsc.2014.0522 [13] 李乾瑶, 唐祥忠, 王军武. 武汉市轨道二号线沿线房地产增值效益分析[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2013, 30 (4): 93-98. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-WHCJ201304018.htmLI Qian-yao, TANG Xiang-zhong, WANG Jun-wu. Calculation of external effect for Wuhan Rail Transit Line 2[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2013, 30 (4): 93-98. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-WHCJ201304018.htm [14] BEKHOR S, PRASHKER J N. GEV-based destination choice models that account for unobserved similarities among alternatives[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2008, 42 (3): 243-262. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2007.08.003 [15] PINJARI A R. Generalized extreme value (GEV) -based error structures for multiple discrete-continuous choice models[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2011, 45 (3): 474-489. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2010.09.004 [16] JONG G D, DALY A, PIETERS M, et al. A model for time of day and mode choice using error components logit[J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2003, 39 (3): 245-568. doi: 10.1016/S1366-5545(02)00037-6 [17] LERMAN S R. Location, housing, automobile ownership, and mode to work: ajoint choice model[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1976 (610): 6-11. [18] BEN-AKIVA M, PALMA A D. Analysis of a dynamic residential location choice model with transaction cost[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 1986, 26 (2): 321-341. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1986.tb00823.x [19] VEGA A, REYNOLDS-FEIGHAN A. A methodological framework for the study of residential location and travel-to work mode choice under central and suburban employment destination patterns[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2009, 43 (4): 401-419. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2008.11.011 [20] 唐洁, 隽志才, 高林杰. 城市居民出行空间和方式联合选择模型研究[J]. 公共交通科技, 2010, 27 (5): 83-99. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLJK201005019.htmTANG Jie, JUAN Zhi-cai, Gao Lin-jie. Travel space and mode combined choice model for urban travelers[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2010, 27 (5): 83-99. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLJK201005019.htm [21] 杨励雅, 李霞, 邵春福. 居住地、出行方式与出发时间联合选择的交叉巢式Logit模型[J]. 同济大学学报: 自然科学版, 2012, 40 (11): 1647-1653. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2012.11.010YANG Li-ya, LI Xia, SHAO Chun-fu. Cross-nested Logit model for joint choice of residential location travel mode and departure time[J]. Journal of Tongji University: Natural Science, 2012, 40 (11): 1647-1653. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2012.11.010 [22] 张邻, 杜文, 夏璇, 等. 实行区域拥挤费征收的交通系统与居住地选择之间的关系[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2014, 34 (2): 509-520. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL201402030.htmZHANG Lin, DU Wen, XIA Xuan, et al. Relationship between residential choice and transport system of area-road congestion charging scheme[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory and Practice, 2014, 34 (2): 509-520. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XTLL201402030.htm [23] 马超群, 杨富社, 王玉萍, 等. 轨道交通对沿线住宅房产增值的影响[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2010, 10 (4): 91-96. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/cn/searchMA Chao-qun, YANG Fu-she, WANG Yu-ping, et al. Impact of rail transit on price increase of residential real estate[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2010, 10 (4): 91-96. (in Chinese). http://transport.chd.edu.cn/cn/search [24] 夏晓梅, 范炳全. 基于广义费用的多用户公路网平衡配流模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2009, 9 (3): 76-80. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200903015XIA Xiao-mei, FAN Bing-quan. Multi-user highway network equilibrium model based on generalized cost[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9 (3): 76-80. (in Chinese). http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/200903015 [25] 王吓忠. 福州市收益型房地产还原利率探析[J]. 福州大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2000, 14 (2): 69-71. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-FZDS200002020.htmWANG Xia-zhong. Analysis on the real estate reduction rate of Fuzhou City[J]. Journal of Fuzhou University: Philosophy and Social Sciences, 2000, 14 (2): 69-71. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-FZDS200002020.htm -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 719
- HTML全文浏览量: 151
- PDF下载量: 533
- 被引次数: 0
