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摘要: 为了预测轨道交通建设对沿线居住区位选择的影响, 结合居民工资水平、交通可达性与住房价格等建立居民消费剩余模型, 建立了居住地Logit选择模型来确定因交通流量分布改变而导致的居住区位选择分布; 借助居民居住地与交通工具联合选择模型, 确定路面交通流量变化, 进而获得轨道交通运营后因交通成本变化引起的不同工资水平居民的居住选择变化情况, 分析了轨道交通建成导致住宅价格增长给居民的居住区位选择行为带来的二次影响; 以单中心城市为背景, 设定10个轨道交通站点为研究对象, 分别计算了8类不同工资类型的居民在轨道交通建设与房价增长后, 在10个轨道交通站点居住区位选择的变化。分析结果表明: 轨道交通建成后居民向远离城市中心的方向移动, 但工资水平较低的居民时间价值较低, 居住选择受其建成影响较小; 随着轨道交通沿线居住区位可达性的提升, 轨道交通附近房价增长, 最远的居住区位平均每平米房价增长2 619元, 最近的居住区位平均每平米房价增长11.5元, 与此同时, 工资水平较高的居民向城市中心移动, 工资水平较低的居民向远离城市中心的方向移动。Abstract: To forecast how the rail transit construction affects the residential location choice, a customer surplus model by considering residents' salary level, transportation accessibility, and housing price was established, and a residential location logit choice model was set up to determine the residential location distribution due to the variation of traffic flow distribution. By using the combined model of residents' residential location choice and transportation means choice, the road traffic flow variation was firstly determined, and then the residential location choices for residents with different salary levels were obtained, which was caused by the travel cost variation after rail transit operation. The secondary effect of housing price appreciation after rail transit construction on residents' residential location choices was analyzed. Based on a monocentric city, 10 rail transit stations were designed as research objectives, the variations of residential location choices were calculated along 10 rail transit stations for citizens with 8 kinds of salary classes after the rail transit construction and the housing price appreciation. Analysis result shows that the residents move away from the city center after rail transit construction, although the residents with lower salary are scarcely affected due to their low value of time. Withthe improvement of residential location accessibility along rail transit, the housing price near the rail transit rises, i.e., the housing price increases by 2 619 yuan per square meter in the farthest residential location, and 11.5 yuan per square meter in the nearest residential location. Simultaneously, the residents with higher salary move forward to the city center, while the residents with lower salary move away from the city center.
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Key words:
- traffic engineering /
- rail transit /
- customer surplus /
- logit model /
- residential location choice
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图 2 轨道交通建设前、后居民居住区位分布(较高工资水平)
Figure 2. Residential location distributions before and after rail transit construction (higher salary level)
图 3 轨道交通建设前、后居民居住区位分布(较低工资水平)
Figure 3. Residential location distributions before and after rail transit construction (lower salary level)
图 4 轨道交通建设后各居住区位居民居住分布变化
Figure 4. Residential location distribution variations after rail transit construction
图 5 房价增长前、后居民居住区位分布(较高工资水平)
Figure 5. Residential location distributions before and after housing price appreciation (higher salary level)
图 6 房价增长前、后居民居住区位分布(较低工资水平)
Figure 6. Residential location distributions before and after housing price appreciation (lower salary level)
表 1 行驶速度比与流量-容量比关系
Table 1. Relationship between traffic speed ratio and flow-capacity ratio
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表 2 各工资水平人口比例及其对应汽车拥有比例
Table 2. Proportions of residents with different salary levels and proportions of car-owners
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表 3 各居住区位房价及公共基础设施水平
Table 3. Housing prices and public infrastructure levels in various residential locations
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表 4 轨道交通建设前各工资类型居民在各居住区位的居住人数
Table 4. Numbers of residents with different salary classes in residential locations before rail transit constructions
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表 5 轨道交通建设后各工资类型居民在各居住区位的居住人数(运营速度1)
Table 5. Numbers of residents with different salary classes in residential locations after rail transit construction (operation speed 1)
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表 6 轨道交通建设后各工资类型居民在各居住区位的居住人数(运营速度2)
Table 6. Numbers of residents with different salary classes in residential locations after rail transit construction (operation speed 2)
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表 7 轨道交通建设后房价增长(运营速度1)
Table 7. Housing price appreciations after rail transit construction (operation speed 1)
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