Modeling of commuters' day-to-day route choice behaviors based on reference-dependent approach
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摘要: 为研究旅行时间不确定环境下出行者动态调节日常路径选择的行为特征, 基于参考依赖行为理论建立了随机路网用户日常路径选择行为模型。引入了基于参考依赖的路径负效用, 并设出行者每天的路径选择行为服从基于Logit模型的决策过程, 给出了保持每日网络均衡的出行者日常旅行行为演化模型, 分析了模型的稳定性, 并利用相继平均法与Logit配流技术相结合的启发式算法进行求解。计算结果表明: 路网的流量分布和出行者的参考点在一定的时间范围内将达到稳定状态, 此时, 传统的期望效用模型将低估总网络用户成本和高估由通行能力改善或拥挤收费政策所带来的收益, 总量上达1%左右。Abstract: In order to investigate commuters' day-to-day route choice behaviors under travel time uncertainty, a novel model was presented based on reference-dependent approach, a reference-dependent route disutility function was introduced, and commuters' day-to-day route choice behaviors obeyed the decision process based on logit model, a day-to-day evolution model of route choice was proposed, in which the equilibrium for every day's route choice was kept. The stability of evolution model was analyzed and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm combining the method of successive averages with logit assignment technique. Analysis result shows that network flows and reference point come into steady state after several days' evolution, and traditional expected utility models underestimate total network user cost and overestimate the benefits from road capacity expansion or road pricing policies in amount of 1%.
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表 1 网络总成本比较
模型类型 交通政策 基本情形 政策Ⅰ 政策Ⅱ 参考依赖模型 169 060 156 490 167 600 期望效用模型 167 830 154 250 166 660 差异 1 230 2 240 940 
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