公路交通事故预测的灰色残差模型

李刚; 黄同愿; 闫河; 黄席樾

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.05.016

公路交通事故预测的灰色残差模型

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.05.016

李刚^{1, 2,},
黄同愿¹,
闫河¹,
黄席樾²

1.
重庆理工大学计算机科学与工程学院, 重庆 400050
2.
重庆大学自动化学院, 重庆 400044

基金项目:

重庆市教委科技计划项目 KJ090619

重庆市九龙坡区科技计划项目 2007Q76

详细信息

作者简介:
李刚(1968-), 男, 四川泸州人, 重庆理工大学副教授, 工学博士, 从事智能交通研究

中图分类号: U491.31
计量
- 文章访问数: 545
- HTML全文浏览量: 108
- PDF下载量: 515
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2009-06-01
- 刊出日期: 2009-10-25

Grey residual error model of highway traffic accident forecast

1.
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400050, China
2.
School of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

More Information

Author Bio:
LI Gang(1968-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-23-68666246, thatsez@163.com

摘要

摘要: 对随机性较强的公路交通事故, 提出了采用灰色残差模型来减小预测误差, 模型用多个指数函数的线性叠加来分段描述事故预测值, 克服了灰色模型只能描述单调变化的过程, 仅适用于预测具有较强指数变化规律事故序列的缺点。对影响灰色残差建模的修正对象、数据选取、数据预处理和修正方法等多种因素作了详细分析和划分, 并归纳出4种实用的灰色残差模型。实例分析结果表明: 与灰色模型相比, 各种灰色残差模型的预测误差降低了70%~80%, 其中采用残差直接建模、一次还原的灰色残差模型, 复杂程度低, 预测误差小于5%。
- 交通安全 /
- 事故预测 /
- 残差 /
- 灰色残差模型
Abstract: Grey residual error model (GREM) was proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of highway traffic accidents with high randomicity. GREM was used to depict the accident prediction values piecewise with the linear superposition of multiple exponential functions, and it overcomed the shortcomings of grey model(GM). GM was only able to describe the monotonous change process and only could be used to estimate the sequences consistent with obvious exponential law. The manifold factors affecting GREM were analyzed and concluded in detail, including amending objects, data selection, data pretreatment and amending methods. Then, 4 practical GREMs were summed up. Analysis result indicates that in comparison with GM, all GREMs' predicting errors reduce by 70%- 80%, and the one modeled by residual error directly and restored only one time has low complexity and its predicting error is less than 5%.
- traffic safety /
- accident forecast /
- residual error /
- gray residual error model

HTML全文

图 1 灰色建模与预测基本过程

Figure 1. Basic process of grey modeling and forecasting

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 样本A的灰色预测曲线

Figure 2. Grey forecasting curve of sample A

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 样本B的灰色预测曲线

Figure 3. Grey forecasting curve of sample B

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 不同修正算法曲线

Figure 4. Curves of different amending algorithms

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 样本A公路交通事故次数

Table 1. Road traffic accident numbers of sample A

表 2 样本B公路交通事故次数

Table 2. Road traffic accident numbers of sample B

表 3 样本A的灰色预测结果

Table 3. Grey forecasting results of sample A

表 4 样本B的灰色预测结果

Table 4. Grey forecasting results of sample B

表 5 样本B的残差修正结果

Table 5. Residual error amending results of sample B

表 6 不同修正算法数据

Table 6. Data of different amending algorithms

参考文献(19)

[1]	王建军, 王军锋, 毕明涛. 区域公路交通事故及高速公路交通事故特征[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2005, 25(3): 66-69. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2005.03.016 WANG Jian-jun, WANG Jun-feng, BI Ming-tao. Characteristics of traffic accidents on highway and expressway[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2005, 25(3): 66-69. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2005.03.016
[2]	李金龙, 孙晚华. 高速公路交通事故成因分析及对策研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2005, 15(1): 59-62. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2005.01.014 LI Jin-long, SUN Wan-hua. Cause analysis of traffic accidents on express highway and study on their countermeasures[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2005, 15(1): 59-62. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2005.01.014
[3]	周钱, 陆化普, 徐薇. 交通事故规律及其模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2006, 6(4): 112-115. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.04.025 ZHOU Qian, LU Hua-pu, XU Wei. Laws and models of traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(4): 112-115. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.04.025
[4]	乔向明, 徐安, 舒伟. 中国道路交通事故变化趋势预测[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2004.06.016 QIAO Xiang-ming, XU An, SHU Wei. Developing tendency forecast of road traffic accident in China[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2004, 24(6): 64-66. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2004.06.016
[5]	LEE C C, WAN T J, KUO C Y, et al. Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2007, 132(1/3): 351-364.
[6]	LIN C B, SU S F, HSU Y T. High-precision forecast using grey models[J]. International Journal of Systems Science, 2001, 32(5): 609-619. doi: 10.1080/00207720120323
[7]	王福建, 李铁强, 俞传正. 道路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.01.026 WANG Fu-jian, LI Tie-qiang, YU Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst predictive model of road traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.01.026
[8]	韩文涛, 张倩, 贾安民. 基于灰色系统的道路交通事故预测模型研究[J]. 西安建筑科技大学学报: 自然科学版, 2005, 37(3): 375-377. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7930.2005.03.016 HAN Wen-tao, ZHANG Qian, JIA An-min. Study on the forecast model of road accident with gray theory[J]. Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology: Natural Science Edition, 2005, 37(3): 375-377. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7930.2005.03.016
[9]	苏梁, 邵东, 唐伯明, 等. 灰色理论在交通事故预测的应用[J]. 重庆交通大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 27(3): 446-448. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CQJT200803028.htm SU Liang, SHAO Dong, TANG Bo-ming, et al. Application of gray theory in road accident forecast[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University: Natural Science, 2008, 27(3): 446-448. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CQJT200803028.htm
[10]	周维新. 交通事故灰色预测模型的研究[J]. 西安公路交通大学学报, 2000, 20(2): 73-75. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200002023.htm ZHOU Wei-xin. Study on the forecast model of traffic accidents with grey theory[J]. Journal of Xi'an Highway University, 2000, 20(2): 73-75. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200002023.htm
[11]	刘兆惠, 王超, 许洪国. 道路交通事故灰色预测模型及应用研究[J]. 长春理工大学学报, 2006, 29(4): 42-44, 54. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CGJM200604012.htm LIU Zhao-hui, WANG Chao, XU Hong-guo. Grey prediction model for road traffic accident and its application research[J]. Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology, 2006, 29(4): 42-44, 54. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CGJM200604012.htm
[12]	马壮林, 邵春福, 李霞, 等. 基于可变参数的道路交通事故动态灰色预测模型[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009, 29(4): 87-90, 96. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200904018.htm MA Zhuang-lin, SHAO Chun-fu, LI Xia, et al. Forecasting grey model of traffic accidents based on variable parameter value rolling[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 29(4): 87-90, 96. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200904018.htm
[13]	徐国星, 李显生, 林庆峰, 等. 交通事故预测的灰色GM(1, 1) 模型[J]. 山东理工大学学报: 自然科学版, 2005, 19(6): 45-49. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDGC200506011.htm XU Guo-xing, LI Xian-sheng, LIN Qing-feng, et al. Gray model GM(1, 1)for forecast of traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Shandong University of Technology: Science and Technology, 2005, 19(6): 45-49. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDGC200506011.htm
[14]	刘淑环, 焦宝聪. 北京市道路交通事故灰色预测模型的构建与应用[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2009, 39(9): 115-122. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SSJS200909019.htm LIUShu-huan, JIAO Bao-cong. The construction and application of grey forecast model in road traffic accident of Beijing[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2009, 39(9): 115-122. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SSJS200909019.htm
[15]	付锐, 郭应时, 袁伟, 等. 连续下坡道路事故率与纵面参数关系研究[J]. 中国公路学报, 2009, 22(3): 101-106. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200903017.htm FU Rui, GUO Ying-shi, YUAN Wei, et al. Research on relation of traffic accident rate and longitudinal parameters in continuous downgrade road[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2009, 22(3): 101-106. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200903017.htm
[16]	王福建, 魏晓冬, 张郃生, 等. 平竖重合路段的弯道错觉及其对交通事故的影响[J]. 中国公路学报, 2009, 22(3): 40-44. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200903007.htm WANG Fu-jian, WEI Xiao-dong, ZHANG He-sheng, et al. Curve illusion resulted from combination of horizontal and vertical curves and its influence on traffic accidents[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2009, 22(3): 40-44. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200903007.htm
[17]	张生瑞, 马壮林, 徐景翠. 高速公路隧道内交通事故分布规律[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 28(4): 74-78. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200804020.htm ZHANG Sheng-rui, MA Zhuang-lin, XU Jing-cui. Traffic accidents distribution law in freeway tunnel[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2008, 28(4): 74-78. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200804020.htm
[18]	许洪国, 都雪静, 许言, 等. 基于大灯碎片分布场的汽车碰撞事故再现模型[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 28(2): 80-83. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200802019.htm XU Hong-guo, DU Xue-jing, XU Yan, et al. Vehicles' crashing accident reconstruction model base on lamp debris distribution field[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2008, 28(2): 80-83. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200802019.htm
[19]	袁伟, 陈斌, 郭应时, 等. 基于多层前馈网络的高速公路意外事件侦测及规律[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2007, 27(5): 89-93, 126. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200705021.htm YUAN Wei, CHEN Bin, GUO Ying-shi, et al. China expressway accident detection model and its laws based on multi-layer feed-back network[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2007, 27(5): 89-93, 126. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200705021.htm