Calculation method for transit period of railway freight under speed-raising condition
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摘要: 分析了提速条件下现行运到期限计算方法存在的问题, 研究了提速条件下铁路各货运产品的日均运行运价公里, 并对统计结果进行了χ2检验。提出了提速条件下运到期限的计算方法, 并根据统计分析结果和有关文献, 确定了各参数的取值范围, 该计算方法可根据货运产品类别和运输区段线路状况进行动态调整。分析结果表明: 各类货运产品的日均运行运价公里服从正态分布; 利用现行运到期限计算方法得到的运到期限与货物实际送达时间的最大差值为4.5d, 而利用新的计算方法得到的最大差值仅为0.8d, 说明该计算方法能比较客观地反映提速条件下各类货运产品的送达时间。Abstract: The problems existing in present calculation methods of transit period were analyzed, the daily average running tariff kilometer of each kind of freight transport product was analyzed under speed-raising condition, and its statistical results were examined by adopting χ2 testing method.A new transit period calculation method for railway freight under speed-raising condition was put forward, the value range of each parameter was determined according to statistical results and relative references.The method could be dynamically adjusted based on freight-product category and the railway line condition of transport section.Analysis result shows that the daily average running tariff kilometer of each kind of freight transport product obeys normal distribution; the maximum difference value between the transit period calculated by present method and the practical forwarding time of freight is 4.5 d, while it is only 0.8 d by adopting the new calculation method, so the method can objectively respond the forwarding time of each kind of freight transport product under speed-raising condition.
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表 1 lir的统计结果
Table 1. Statistical results of lir
lir 统计数/次 均值 标准差 l1r 2 847 674.569 7 43.462 l2r 2 847 400.101 1 30.248 l3r 2 847 309.817 4 17.811 l4r 2 847 254.913 8 8.927 
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表 2 l1r的χ2检验结果
Table 2. χ2testing result of l1r
区间号 组类 观测频数fi 观测频率fi/n 估计概率pi npi fi2/npi 1 0~550 21 0.007 376 185 0.01 28.47 15.490 0 2 550~600 117 0.041 095 890 0.04 113.88 120.205 0 3 600~650 506 0.177 730 945 0.17 483.99 529.011 0 4 650~700 1 567 0.550 403 934 0.56 1 594.32 1 540.150 0 5 700~750 513 0.180 189 673 0.17 483.99 543.749 0 6 750~800 105 0.036 880 927 0.04 113.88 96.812 4 7 > 800 18 0.006 322 445 0.01 28.47 11.380 4
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表 3 l2r的χ2检验结果
Table 3. χ2testing result of l2r
区间号 组类 观测频数fi 观测频率fi/n 估计概率pi npi f/npi 1 0~300 8 0.002 867 384 0.003 8.37 7.646 4 2 300~340 87 0.031 182 796 0.030 83.70 90.430 1 3 340~380 413 0.148 028 674 0.140 390.60 436.685 0 4 380~420 1 752 0.627 956 989 0.650 1 813.50 1 692.590 0 5 420~460 448 0.160 573 477 0.150 418.50 479.579 0 6 460~500 78 0.027 956 989 0.026 72.54 83.871 0 7 > 500 4 0.001 433 692 0.001 2.79 5.734 8
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表 4 检验结果汇总
Table 4. Summary of testing results
lir 均值 标准差 χ2值 χ0.052值 检验结果 l1r 674.569 7 43.462 9.19 16.143 正态分布 l2r 400.101 1 30.248 6.53 16.143 正态分布 l3r 309.817 4 17.811 8.04 16.143 正态分布 l4r 254.913 8 8.927 9.78 16.143 正态分布
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