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摘要: 基于非机动车和行人通过交叉口时的交通流运行特征, 定义了当量人群的概念来描述非机动车和行人对机动车通行的共同影响。统计了高峰小时的当量人群数据, 考虑样本的稳定性、样本量的大小以及应用的便利性, 以15 min为分析时段, 采用回归分析的方法得到了当量人群的当量人数与当量人群的平均群时距和群个数之间的回归关系模型。分析结果表明: 当量人群的群时距符合移位负指数分布; 当量人群的平均群时距随着当量人数的增加而减小; 当量人群的群个数随着当量人数的增加表现出先增加后减小的趋势。Abstract: Based on the running characteristics of non-motorized vehicles and pedestrians when they passed through intersection, equivalent people group was defined to describe its influence on vehicles.Considering sample stability, sample number and application convenience, the analysis period of 15 min was adopted, and equivalent people groups' data at peak hours were investigated.The correlation models among equivalent people number, average group time headway and group number were got by means of regression analysis.Analysis result indicates that the group time headway of equivalent people group is shifted negative exponential distribution, the average group time headway decreases with the increase of equivalent people number, and the group number firstly increases and then decreases with the increase of equivalent people number.
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图 3 15 min时段当量人数与平均群时距关系
Figure 3. Relationship between equivalent people numbers and average group time headways in 15 min
图 4 15 min时段当量人数与群个数关系
Figure 4. Relationship between equivalent people numbers and group numbers in 15 min
表 1 群时距统计值
Table 1. Statistical values of group time headways
区间 < 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 > 20 频数 55 63 56 38 35 21 21 25 12 11 16 8 8 4 5 5 4 2 3 15 
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表 2 15 min时段当量人数与平均群时距统计值
Table 2. Statistical values of equivalent people numbers and average group time headways in 15 min
当量人数 330.78 349.18 321.17 348.49 351.77 266.51 407.43 343.57 272.15 平均群时距/s 6.38 5.98 6.54 5.77 6.17 8.89 5.65 6.43 7.75 当量人数 328.45 340.61 339.83 333.73 330.14 411.29 288.89 274.80 343.74 平均群时距/s 6.09 6.30 6.35 5.82 7.40 5.60 7.36 6.86 6.12 当量人数 338.11 343.09 342.81 365.18 392.30 275.03 670.13 453.34 360.92 平均群时距/s 6.31 5.94 5.98 5.94 6.01 7.35 4.21 5.10 5.76 当量人数 274.13 537.40 424.67 327.48 452.21 401.29 309.58 1 142.65 1 221.27 平均群时距/s 6.86 4.82 5.45 6.18 5.15 5.49 6.61 3.37 3.74 当量人数 680.99 437.11 1 265.52 1 035.80 507.59 440.26 1 334.80 778.95 492.47 平均群时距/s 4.24 5.74 3.42 3.75 5.36 5.88 3.51 4.09 5.50
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表 3 15 min时段当量人数与平均群时距回归分析结果
Table 3. Regression analysis results between equivalent people numbers and average group time headways in 15 min
回归方程 模型概述 参数估计 R2 F d1 d2 S C b1 b2 b3 一元线性 0.725 113.428 1 43 0.000 7.484 -0.004 对数函数 0.842 228.496 1 43 0.000 20.808 -2.483 逆函数 0.905 408.498 1 43 0.000 2.342 1 356.005 二次函数 0.867 137.489 2 42 0.000 10.172 -0.013 6.44×10-6 三次函数 0.891 112.105 3 41 0.000 12.752 -0.027 2.77×10-5 -9.55×10-9 复合函数 0.832 212.755 1 43 0.000 7.950 0.999 幂函数 0.919 490.147 1 43 0.000 106.412 -0.485 S形曲线 0.936 627.543 1 43 0.000 1.079 257.724 生长函数 0.832 212.755 1 43 0.000 2.073 -0.001 指数函数 0.832 212.755 1 43 0.000 7.950 -0.001 逻辑函数 0.832 212.755 1 43 0.000 0.126 1.001 注: F为F检验值; d1、d2为自由度; S为F检验值的实际显著性水平; C为常数项; b1、b2、b3为回归参数。
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表 4 15 min时段当量人数与群个数统计值
Table 4. Statistical values of equivalent people numbers and group numbers in 15 min
当量人数 266.51 407.43 343.57 272.15 330.78 349.18 321.17 348.49 351.77 群个数 90 114 106 93 97 105 102 112 108 当量人数 330.14 411.29 288.89 274.80 328.45 340.61 339.83 333.73 365.18 群个数 101 112 94 100 102 103 104 113 111 当量人数 392.30 275.03 343.74 338.11 343.09 342.81 670.13 453.34 360.92 群个数 107 95 102 105 107 112 117 112 114 当量人数 274.13 537.40 424.67 327.48 452.21 401.29 309.58 1 142.65 1 221.27 群个数 102 115 110 109 115 115 105 102 103 当量人数 680.99 437.11 1 265.52 1 035.80 507.59 440.26 1 334.80 778.95 492.47 群个数 123 120 100 108 122 117 98 120 114
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表 5 15 min时段当量人数与群个数回归分析结果
Table 5. Regression analysis results between equivalent people numbers and group numbers in 15 min
回归方程 模型概述 参数估计 R2 F d1 d2 S C b1 b2 b3 一元线性 0.002 0.099 1 43 0.755 106.815 0.001 对数函数 0.050 2.272 1 43 0.139 82.714 4.085 逆函数 0.161 8.255 1 43 0.006 117.182 -3 853.973 二次函数 0.684 45.466 2 42 0.000 67.187 0.145 -9.50×10-5 三次函数 0.788 50.794 3 41 0.000 30.893 0.338 -3.94×10-4 1.34×10-7 复合函数 0.002 0.100 1 43 0.753 106.515 1.000 幂函数 0.050 2.271 1 43 0.139 84.972 0.038 S形曲线 0.162 8.291 1 43 0.006 4.766 -36.220 生长函数 0.002 0.100 1 43 0.753 4.668 1.29×10-5 指数函数 0.002 0.100 1 43 0.753 106.515 1.29×10-5 逻辑函数 0.002 0.100 1 43 0.753 0.009 1.000
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表 6 算例计算结果
Table 6. Calculation results of case
15 min当量人数 15 min平均群时距/s 15 min当量人群个数 实测值 计算值 实测值 计算值 349 5.98 6.23 112 107 321 6.54 6.56 104 103 349 5.77 6.23 118 107 352 6.17 6.20 115 107
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