不确定性对城市交通出行者路径选择的影响

摘要: 为了研究城市交通中旅行时间的不确定性对出行者路径选择的影响, 基于展望理论, 提出了出行者规避不确定性假说, 应用贝叶斯模型分析了重复出行中出行者对不确定性的认知更新及其对出行行为的影响, 并通过调查数据进行了实例验证。分析结果表明: 77.73%的出行者偏好旅行时间不确定性小的路径; 路径旅行时间不确定性降低时, 有66.39%的出行者改变了出行时间, 平均时间预算减少了10.03%;对路径熟悉程度增加时, 有70.90%的出行者改变了出行时间, 平均时间预算减少了15.56%。可见, 出行者的出行时间预算随旅行时间不确定性的下降和重复出行的增加而减少。
- 城市交通 /
- 出行者路径选择 /
- 不确定性规避 /
- 认知更新
Abstract: To study the impact of travel time uncertainty on traveler route choice in urban traffic, a hypothesis that travelers took aversion to travel time uncertainty was presented based on prospect theory. A Bayesian model was used to analyze travelers' behaviors influenced by updating uncertainty perceived in rerouting, and an example was tested by using survey data. Analysis result shows that 77.73% travelers prefer routes with less uncertainty.66.39% travelers change their departure times when the uncertainty of travel time reduces, so that mean travel time budget decreases about 10.03%.70.90% travelers change their departure times when their familiarities with route increase, so that mean travel time budget decreases about 15.56%. So travel time budgets decrease with the decrease of travel time uncertainty and the increase of repeated travels.
- urban traffic /
- traveler route choice /
- uncertainty aversion /
- perception updating

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图 1 随机旅行时间的效用曲线

Figure 1. Utility curve of random travel time

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表 1 路径选择

Table 1. Route choice

期望旅行时间/min	受访人数	选择路径1人数	选择路径2人数
35	238	53	185

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表 2 随路径旅行时间不确定程度变化的时间预算变化

Table 2. Change of travel time budgets with different uncertain travel times on routes

出行目的	熟悉路径时的平均时间预算				不熟悉路径时的平均时间预算
出行目的	路径1/min	路径2/min	人数改变/%	时间改变/%	路径1/min	路径2/min	人数改变/%	时间改变/%
赶飞机	49.53	43.85	73.11	-11.47	59.49	52.55	62.18	-11.67
赴宴	39.79	36.36	64.29	-8.62	46.13	42.62	65.97	-7.61
平均值	44.66	40.11	68.70	-10.19	52.81	47.59	64.08	-9.88

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表 3 随熟悉程度变化的出行时间预算变化

Table 3. Change of travel time budgets with different familiarities with routes

出行目的	路径1的平均时间预算				路径2的平均时间预算
出行目的	不熟悉路径/min	熟悉路径/min	人数改变/%	时间改变/%	不熟悉路径/min	熟悉路径/min	人数改变/%	时间改变/%
赶飞机	59.49	49.53	67.23	-16.74	52.55	43.85	79.57	-16.56
赴宴	46.13	39.79	65.55	-13.74	42.62	36.36	72.27	-14.69
平均值	52.81	44.66	66.39	-15.43	47.59	40.11	75.42	-15.72

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