高速公路单车事故建模方法

杨宏志; 叶亚丽; 许金良; 钟纯耀

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.01.015

高速公路单车事故建模方法

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.01.015

1.
长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室，陕西西安 710064
2.
山东交通学院土木工程系，山东济南 250023
3.
广东高速集团有限公司，广东广州 510100

基金项目:

陕西省交通科技项目 08-08R

陕西省交通科技项目 06-31K

详细信息

作者简介:
杨宏志(1975-)，男，山东昌邑人，长安大学副教授，工学博士，从事道路交通安全与道路路线设计技术研究

中图分类号: U491.31
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-09-12
- 刊出日期: 2011-02-25

Single-vehicle accident modelling method on freeway

1.
Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
2.
Department of Civil Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250023, Shandong, China
3.
Guangdong Provincial Freeway Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510100, Guangdong, China

More Information

Author Bio:
YANG Hong-zhi(1975-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-29-82334864, yhz@gl.chd.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 利用随机试验和数学均值化原理, 对收集的单车事故数据进行了分析, 运用定积分的元素法计算单车事故率面积函数, 并对其拟合求导。结合面积函数的线形变化规律, 筛选出单车交通事故影响因子和道路几何要素变量, 逐一建立了各独立变量对事故率的影响模型, 并确定了最终的变量。采用回归分析方法构建不同半径和直线长度的单车事故预测模型, 利用三维曲面图对模型进行分析, 提出了高速公路设计中适宜采用的半径和直线长度取值区间。研究结果表明: 高速公路设计中采用直线-曲线-直线的线形组合时, 适宜曲线半径区间应为[2 500, 3 500]和直线长度区间应为[1 000, 2 000];在曲线半径大于不设超高的最小半径时, 与之相连的直线长度宜取1 000 m。
- 交通安全 /
- 单车事故率 /
- 面积函数 /
- 影响因子 /
- 回归分析
Abstract: The collected single-vehicle accidents were analyzed by using random trial and mathematic equalization principle. The area function of single-vehicle accident rate was computed by definite integral element method. The affecting factors and geometric variables of traffic accident were selected one by one according to the change rule of area function, the affecting model of every variable was set up, and the final variables were determined. The single-vehicle accident forecast models were established in the sections with different radiuses and linear lengths by using regression analysis. The suitable curve radius and linear length were proposed through analyzing the 3D surface charts of the models. Research result indicates that in freeway design, the reasonable radius of a curve is in the interval [2 500, 3 500], and a linear length is in the interval [1 000, 2 000] for the alignment combination of straight line-curve-straight line. When the radius of curve is more than the minimum radius without superelevation, it is 1 000 for the linear length of that is connected with the curve.
- traffic safety /
- single-vehicle accident rate /
- area function /
- affect factor /
- regression analysis

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图 1 半径与事故率散点

Figure 1. Scatter plots of radiuses and accident rates

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图 2 曲线半径与事故率均值化散点

Figure 2. Scatter plots of radiuses and means of accident rates

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图 3 矩形法面积计算

Figure 3. Area calculation of rectangular method

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图 4 面积函数与事故模型关系

Figure 4. Relationship of area function and accident model

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图 5 曲线半径与事故率面积散点

Figure 5. Scatter plots of radiuses and areas of accident rates

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图 6 事故模型三维曲面

Figure 6. Three-dimensional surfaces of accident model

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