燃油税对国民经济与运输冲击的CGE模拟

袁长伟; 王建伟; 焦萍

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.06.016

燃油税对国民经济与运输冲击的CGE模拟

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.06.016

长安大学经济与管理学院, 陕西西安 710064

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 50808022

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 Z1101

交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目 20113188201420

详细信息

作者简介:
袁长伟(1981-), 男, 湖南邵阳人, 长安大学副教授, 工学博士, 从事交通运输经济分析与仿真研究

中图分类号: F512.0
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出版历程
- 刊出日期: 2011-12-25

CGE simulation of fuel oil tax impact on national economy and transportation

School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China

More Information

Author Bio:
YUAN Chang-wei(1981-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-29-82334898, yuanchangwei@126.com

摘要

摘要: 为模拟燃油税费改革对国民经济与交通运输业的影响, 以运输卫星账户为数据框架基础, 构建了燃油-交通运输-经济的TSA-CGE模型。通过产品生产、价格传导、运输与燃油、收入与支出、贸易、社会福利、社会投资和总均衡模块, 对燃油-交通运输-经济系统进行全面描述。设置燃油消费税率从5%上升到20%的燃油税费方案, 模拟燃油税费方案对宏观经济与交通运输的影响。模拟结果表明: 燃油税方案会促进投资、居民收入、政府储蓄的增长, 但会对经济总量增长及进出口带来负面影响; 燃油税费方案会带来铁路运输、城市交通总产出的增加, 而导致其他方式运输产出的下降, 各运输方式总体产出价格呈现上涨趋势; 方案能促进国内成品油需求量的降低, 提高油品利用效率。
- 交通运输经济 /
- CGE模拟 /
- 运输卫星账户 /
- 燃油税 /
- 经济核算
Abstract: In order transportation indu to simulate the influences of fuel oil stry, the fuel-transportation-economy tax reform on national economy and TSA-CGE model was built based on fuel, income and expense, trade, public welfare, social investment, and general equilibrium. A fuel oil tax program was set, which fuel consumption tax rate rised from 5% to 20%, and the influences of the program on macro-economy and transportation were simulated. Simulation result shows that fuel oil tax program can promote the developments of investment, residents' incomes, government savings, but have negative impact on economic aggregate growth, import and export. The program can cause the increases of rail transport, total urban traffic output, lead to the declines of other transport outputs, and the overall output prices of transport modes show a rising trend. The program can promote the decrease of domestic oil product demand, and improve the use efficiency of oil.
- transportation economy /
- CGE simulation /
- transportation satellite account /
- fuel oil tax /
- economic accounting

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表 1 运输卫星账户使用表的使用项目

Table 1. Use items of use table for transportation satellite account

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表 2 TSA-CGE模型数据结构

Table 2. Data framework of TSA-CGE model

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表 3 江苏省经济发展部分关键数据

Table 3. Some key data of Jiangsu economic growth

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表 4 宏观经济指标的变动百分比

Table 4. Change percents of macro-economic indicators %

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表 5 交通运输指标的变动百分比

Table 5. Change percents of transportation indicators %

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