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摘要: 在大风浪天气条件下, 为了使救助船在能够保障自身安全的前提下, 尽早靠近遇险目标实施救助, 采用专家问卷调查的方式, 得到了北海救助局主力救助船的失速情况、航行风压差与风险等级隶属度等数据。根据模糊数学和风险分析理论, 建立了救助船的风险评估模型, 提出了基于电子海图的大风浪信息综合显示与救助船舶航线优选平台的功能需求, 优化了航线风险评估流程, 并设计了大风浪天气条件下海面遇险目标快速接近辅助决策系统。仿真结果表明: 距离遇险目标最近的救助船北海救196航线风险等级过大, Ⅲ级风险的隶属度为1.0;救助船北海救108沿2号航线前往遇险目标时, 会遭遇8级横风, Ⅲ级风险的隶属度为0.5, 失速明显且航行时间过长; 救助船北海救113的1号航线安全性较佳, 时间最短, 为最佳航线。仿真结果与实际结果一致, 可见, 系统有效。Abstract: Under heavy weather condition, in order to make rescue ship approach distress target and implement assistance while the self-security of rescue ship could be guaranteed, the method of expert consult survey was used, and the stall situations, navigation leeways and risk grade membership degrees of brunt rescue ships in Beihai Rescue Bureau were obtained.Based on fuzzy mathematics and risk analysis theory, the risk evaluation model of rescue ship was set up, the functional requirements such as the integrated display of heavy weather information and the optimal route platform of rescue ship based on electronic chart were carried out, the evaluation process of route risk was optimized, and the quick approaching assistant decision system of distress target on sea surface under heavy weather condition was designed.Simulation result indicates that though BHJ196 is the nearest rescue ship to distress target, the route risk is too large, and the membership degree of Ⅲ-grade risk is 1.0.While approaching distress target by No.2 route, BHJ108 will encounter 8-grade crosswind, the membership degree of Ⅲ-grade risk is 0.5, stall situation is significant, and navigation time is too large.The safety of No.1 route for BHJ113 is better, and navigation time is the least, so the No.1 route of BHJ113 is the optimal route.The simulation result is consistent with the actual result, so the proposed system is effective.
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Key words:
- traffic safety /
- assistant decision /
- risk analysis /
- fuzzy evaluation /
- distress target /
- rescue ship /
- heavy weather /
- optimal route
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表 1 实际航速
Table 1. Actual speeds
kn 浪高/m 风浪舷角/(°) 0 45 90 135 180 ≤2 11.0 11.5 11.0 14.5 15.0 (2, 3] 9.0 9.5 8.5 13.0 14.0 (3, 4] 7.0 7.5 6.0 11.0 12.5 (4, 5] 5.5 6.0 8.0 9.5 
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表 2 风弦角
Table 2. Wind string angles
风力等级 风向与航线之间夹角/(°) 0 45 90 135 180 7 — 3 4 2 — 8 — 3 5 2 — 9 — 5 6 3 — 10 — 6 7 4 — 11 — 10 12 7 — 12 — 15 14 9 —
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表 3 风险等级
Table 3. Grades of risk
风险等级 名称 含义 Ⅰ 风险较小 此状态下, 救助船可以航行, 但应注意, 必要时须严格遵守大风浪航行的有关规定 Ⅱ 有一定风险 此状态对救助船安全有一定威胁, 救助船应避免在此状态下航行较长时间 Ⅲ 风险极大 此状态对救助船安全有严重威胁, 救助船要完全避免在此状态下航行
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表 4 隶属度
Table 4. Membership degrees
隶属度 0.0 0.1~0.4 0.5 0.6~0.9 1.0 含义 完全不属于 逐渐减小 临界值 逐渐增大 完全属于
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表 5 评价结果
Table 5. Evaluation result
救助船 航线编号 Ⅰ级风险隶属度 Ⅱ级风险隶属度 Ⅲ级风险隶属度 航行时间/h 航程/n mile 北海救115 115-1 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 80.2 北海救111 111-1 0.5 0.4 0.1 6.1 93.1 北海救198 198-1 0.0 0.0 1.0 北海救196 196-1 0.0 0.0 1.0 北海救113 113-2 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 51.8 113-1 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 43.9 北海救108 108-2 0.1 0.4 0.5 7.7 58.8 108-1 0.3 0.5 0.2 6.0 51.9
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