驾驶人个人特征对行车速度的影响

冯忠祥; 袁华智; 刘静; 张卫华; 刘鸿潮

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.06.014

驾驶人个人特征对行车速度的影响

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.06.014

1.
合肥工业大学交通运输工程学院，安徽合肥 230009
2.
长安大学汽车学院，陕西西安 710064
3.
安徽建筑工业学院机械与电气工程学院，安徽合肥 230601
4.
德克萨斯理工大学土木与环境系，德克萨斯卢伯克 79409

基金项目:

高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目 20120111120021

国家自然科学基金项目 51178158

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 CHD2012JC062

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 2011HGBZ0936

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 2011HGQC1018

详细信息

作者简介:
冯忠祥(1982-), 男, 安徽含山人, 合肥工业大学讲师, 工学博士, 从事道路交通安全研究

中图分类号: U491.14
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2012-07-29
- 刊出日期: 2012-12-25

Influence of driver personal characteristics on vehicle velocity

1.
School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, Anhui, China
2.
School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
3.
School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Anhui University of Architecture, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China
4.
Department of Civil and Environment, Texas Tech University, Lubbock 79409, Texas, USA

More Information

Author Bio:
FENG Zhong-xiang(1982-), male, lecturer, PhD, +86-551-2919160, fzx@hfut.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 为分析驾驶人个人特征与行车速度之间的关系, 采用个人属性调查和实车试验相结合的方法, 获得80份驾驶人行车速度记录数据。按照驾驶人行车超速时间与总行车时间的比例, 将驾驶人超速选择行为区间划分为4个小区间。运用非集计理论, 将驾驶人的性别、年龄、性格、教育程度、驾龄等个人特征作为影响因素, 并将4个小区间作为4个选择肢, 建立了驾驶人个人特征对行车速度的影响度量模型, 并结合弹性理论分析了各个影响因素的敏感度。分析结果表明: 驾驶人的性别、年龄、教育程度、矫正视力、职业驾驶人和发生交通事故6个影响因素对应的弹性值均小于1.000, 说明上述因素对速度选择行为缺乏弹性; 在4个小区间上, 驾驶人的驾龄对应的弹性值分别为6.287、3.211、3.438和2.450, 性格对应的弹性值分别为1.249、1.045、2.033和3.672, 说明性格和驾龄2个影响因素对行车速度选择行为富有弹性, 影响显著。
- 交通安全 /
- 驾驶行为 /
- 行车速度 /
- 个人属性 /
- MNL模型 /
- 敏感度分析
Abstract: In order to analyze the relationship between driver personal characteristics and vehicle velocity, the method of combining personal attribute survey and real vehicle test was carried out, and the vehicle velocity record data of 80 drivers were obtained. According to the ratio of over speed time and total travel time for driver, the section of over speed selection behavior for driver was divided into 4 small sections. By using disaggregate theory, the personal characteristics of driver such as sex, age, personality, education level and driving age were taken as influence factors, the 4 small sections were taken as alternative parts, the influence measurement model of the personal characteristics of driver on vehicle velocity was set up, and the sensitivity of each influence factor was analyzed based on elasticity theory. Analysis result shows that all the 6 elasticity values of sex, age, education level, corrected vision, professional driver, traffic accident occurrence are less than 1.000, so the above 6 influence factors are short of elasticity to speed selection behavior. In the 4 small sections, the elasticity values of driving age are 6.287, 3.211, 3.438 and 2.450 respectively, the elasticity values of personality are 1.249, 1.045, 2.033 and 3.672 respectively, the 2 influence factors are rich in elasticity to speed selection behavior, and their effects are significant.
- traffic safety /
- driving behavior /
- vehicle velocity /
- personal attribute /
- MNL model /
- sensitivity analysis

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图 1 驾龄分布

Figure 1. Distribution of driving ages

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图 2 驾驶人年龄分布

Figure 2. Distribution of driver ages

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图 3 驾驶人性别分布

Figure 3. Distribution of driver sexes

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图 4 驾驶人矫正视力分布

Figure 4. Distribution of driver corrected visions

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图 5 驾驶人教育程度分布

Figure 5. Distribution of driver education levels

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图 6 驾驶人性格分布

Figure 6. Distribution of driver personalities

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图 7 职业驾驶人分布

Figure 7. Distribution of professional drivers

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图 8 发生交通事故分布

Figure 8. Distribution of traffic accident occurrences

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图 9 行车路线

Figure 9. Vehicle route

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图 10 试验道路情况

Figure 10. Test road situation

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图 11 模型流程

Figure 11. Model flow

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表 1 行车速度

Table 1. Vehicle velocity

速度行为选择区间	A	B	C	D
驾驶人数量	14	37	16	13
平均车速/(km·h^-1)	60.2	69.6	72.8	80.1
最高速度平均值/(km·h^-1)	78.4	110.2	109.7	113.2

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表 2 影响因素

Table 2. Influence factors

影响因素	变量	说明
性别	X₁	男性为1, 女性为0
年龄	X₂	为实际年龄
教育程度	X₃	划分为4级: 小学及以下、初中、高中、大学及以上, 分别取值为0、1、2、3
驾龄	X₄	为实际驾龄
性格	X₅	划分为4级: 抑郁质、粘液质、多血质、胆汁质, 分别取值为0、1、2、3
是否矫正视力	X₆	哑变量, 是为1, 否则为0
是否职业驾驶人	X₇	哑变量, 是为1, 否则为0
是否发生过交通事故	X₈	哑变量, 是为1, 否则为0

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表 3 模型影响因素标定结果

Table 3. Calibration results of model influence factors

影响因素	变量	参数值	标准差	t检验值
性别	X₁	1.326	0.136	2.759
年龄	X₂	0.462	0.026	3.223
教育程度	X₃	0.025	0.149	1.981
驾龄	X₄	0.924	0.032	-3.623
性格	X₅	2.231	0.061	5.991
是否矫正视力	X₆	0.043	0.348	2.025
是否职业驾驶人	X₇	0.824	0.193	3.417
是否发生过交通事故	X₈	1.176	0.239	4.278

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表 4 影响因素与参数值

Table 4. Influence factors and parameter values

影响因素	变量	区间
影响因素	变量	A	B	C	D
性别	X₁	1.326			1.326
年龄	X₂		0.046		0.046
教育程度	X₃	0.025	0.025	0.025
驾龄	X₄		0.924	0.924
性格	X₅	2.231	2.231	2.231	2.231
是否矫正视力	X₆	0.043		0.043
是否职业驾驶人	X₇		0.824		0.824
是否发生过交通事故	X₈	1.176		1.176	1.176

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表 5 性别与年龄计算结果

Table 5. Calculation results of sex and age

速度选择行为区间	选择概率	性别			年龄
速度选择行为区间	选择概率	参数值	平均值	弹性值	参数值	平均值	弹性值
A	0.183	1.326	0.478	0.518	0.023	32.359	0.611
B	0.432	1.326	0.563	0.424	0.023	31.003	0.407
C	0.217	1.326	0.532	0.552	0.023	29.798	0.539
D	0.168	1.326	0.627	0.692	0.023	28.876	0.555

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表 6 教育程度与驾龄计算结果

Table 6. Calculation results of education level and driving age

速度选择行为区间	选择概率	教育程度			驾龄
速度选择行为区间	选择概率	参数值	平均值	弹性值	参数值	平均值	弹性值
A	0.183	0.025	1.274	0.026	0.924	8.328	6.287
B	0.432	0.025	1.365	0.019	0.924	6.119	3.211
C	0.217	0.025	1.117	0.022	0.924	4.752	3.438
D	0.168	0.025	1.486	0.031	0.924	3.187	2.450

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表 7 性格与矫正视力计算结果

Table 7. Calculation results of personality and corrected vision

速度选择行为区间	选择概率	性格			是否矫正视力
速度选择行为区间	选择概率	参数值	平均值	弹性值	参数值	平均值	弹性值
A	0.183	2.231	0.685	1.249	0.043	0.584	0.021
B	0.432	2.231	0.825	1.045	0.043	0.478	0.012
C	0.217	2.231	1.164	2.033	0.043	0.493	0.017
D	0.168	2.231	1.978	3.672	0.043	0.468	0.017

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表 8 职业驾驶人与发生交通事故计算结果

Table 8. Calculation results of professional driver and traffic accident occurrence

速度选择行为区间	选择概率	是否职业驾驶人			是否发生过交通事故
速度选择行为区间	选择概率	参数值	平均值	弹性值	参数值	平均值	弹性值
A	0.183	0.824	0.445	0.300	1.176	0.386	0.371
B	0.432	0.824	0.493	0.231	1.176	0.274	0.183
C	0.217	0.824	0.575	0.371	1.176	0.335	0.308
D	0.168	0.824	0.484	0.332	1.176	0.221	0.216

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