具有模糊特性变量的出行方式预测Logit模型

朱顺应; 邓爽; 王红; 管菊香; 程阳

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2013.03.010

具有模糊特性变量的出行方式预测Logit模型

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2013.03.010

1.
武汉理工大学交通学院, 湖北武汉 430063
2.
深圳市新城市规划建筑设计有限公司, 广东深圳 518172
3.
威斯康星大学工程学院, 威斯康星州麦迪逊 53706

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 51208400

详细信息

作者简介:
朱顺应(1967-), 男, 安徽安庆人, 武汉理工大学教授, 工学博士, 从事道路交通规划研究

中图分类号: U491.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2012-12-18
- 刊出日期: 2013-06-25

Predictive logit model of trip mode with fuzzy attribute variables

1.
School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, Hubei, China
2.
Shenzhen New Urban Planning and Architectural Design Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518172, Guangdong, China
3.
School of Engineering, University of Wiscosin, Madison 53706, Wiscosin, USA

More Information

Author Bio:
ZHU Shurying(1967-), male, professor, PhD, +86-27-86551193, zhusy2001@163.com

摘要

摘要: 基于非集计模型与模糊数学理论, 以城市群居民出行行为为研究对象, 选择出行者的出行时间和出行费用作为影响因素, 利用极大似然估计法进行参数标定, 通过t检验、命中率检验与优度检验, 将出行时间模糊化, 忽略出行费用的影响, 建立了具有模糊特性变量的出行方式预测Logit模型。将轨道交通与小汽车2种出行方式的时间模糊化参数分别选为0.1、0.3、0.5, 分析了出行方式与出行时间对居民出行行为的影响。分析结果表明: 轨道交通与小汽车的平均出行感知时间之比为0.8~1.2, 且2种出行感知时间同等程度变化; 当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.1, 小汽车出行时间小于70 min时, 出行者均选择轨道交通出行; 当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.3, 小汽车出行时间小于67 min时, 出行者继续选择轨道交通出行, 但当小汽车出行时间大于67 min, 小汽车出行时间模糊化参数分别为0.1、0.3时, 出行者选择小汽车出行; 当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.5, 小汽车出行时间小于58 min时, 出行者仍然选择轨道交通出行, 但当小汽车出行时间大于66 min时, 出行者均选择小汽车出行。
- 交通规划 /
- 居民出行 /
- 出行方式 /
- Logit模型 /
- 模糊特性变量 /
- 三角形重心
Abstract: Based on the disaggregate model and fuzzy mathematics theory, the trip behaviors of residents in urban agglomeration were taken as study subject, the trip time and the trip cost were taken as influence factors, and the parameters were calibrated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Through t test, hit rate test and fit goodness test, the trip time was fuzzed, the influence of trip cost was ignored, and a predicative logit model of trip mode with fuzzy attribute variables was established. The fuzzy parameters of trip times for rail transit and car were chosen as 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively, the influences of trip mode and trip time on trip behavior for residents were analyzed.Analysis result shows that the average trip perception time ratio of rail transit and car is between 0.8 and 1.2, and the two trip perception times change in equal degree. When the fuzzy parameter of trip time for rail transit is 0.1 and the trip time of car is less than 70 min, all the residents will choose rail transit. When the fuzzy parameter of trip time for rail transit is 0.3 and the trip time of car is less than 67 min, residents still choose rail transit, but when the trip time of car is more than 67 min and the fuzzy parameter of trip time for car is 0.1 and 0.3 respectively, residents will choose car.When the fuzzy parameter of trip time for rail transit is 0.5 and the trip time of car is less than 58 min, residents still choose rail transit, while the trip time of car is more than 66 min, all the residents choose car.
- traffic planning /
- resident trip /
- trip mode /
- logit model /
- fuzzy attribute variable /
- triangle center

HTML全文

图 1 工况1计算结果

Figure 1. Calculation results of condition 1

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图 2 工况2计算结果

Figure 2. Calculation results of condition 2

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图 3 工况3计算结果

Figure 3. Calculation results of condition 3

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图 4 工况4计算结果

Figure 4. Calculation results of condition 4

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表 1 一般Logit模型参数

Table 1. Parameters of common logit model

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表 2 修正后的参数

Table 2. Parameters affer rectification

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表 3 模糊Logit模型参数

Table 3. Parameters of fuzzy logit model

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