Prediction method of highway passenger transportation volume based on exponential smoothing method and Markov model
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摘要: 分析了常用的客运量预测方法, 提出了一种新的基于指数平滑法和马尔科夫模型的公路客运量预测方法Abstract: The usual prediction methods of passenger transportation volume were analyzed, a new prediction method of highway passenger transportation volume based on exponential smoothing method and Markov model was put out. Based on the actual value, linear fitting value and quadratic curve fitting value of highway passenger transportation volume, the initial value and smoothing coefficient were calculated by using quadratic curve fitting method. According to the related data of Anhui Province in 2000-2009, the highway passenger transportation volumes in 2010, 2011 were predicted by using exponential smoothing method. Taking -11%, -5%, 0, 5%, 11% as division threshold values, the relative errors of prediction results by using exponential smoothing method were divided into four state intervals, the prediction results of exponential smoothing method were modified by using Markov model, and the prediction results among the proposed method, fuzzy linear regession model and exponential smoothing method were compared. Analysis result shows that by using the proposed method, the prediction results of highway passenger transportation volumes in 2010, 2011 are 1.420 9×1010, 1.571 2×1010 persons, relative errors are 1.195% and 0.492% respectively. By using exponential smoothing method, prediction results are 1.346 8×1010, 1.489 3×1010 persons, relative errors are -3.399% and -4.746% respectively. By using fuzzy linear regession model, prediction results are 1.357 3×1010, 1.532 5×1010 persons, relative errors are -2.647% and -1.983% respectively. The proposed method has higher precision to meet the actical demands.
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