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摘要: 为准确、高效地预测任意时间段内的所有动车组高级检修量, 提出了一种动车组年度高级检修量预测方法。以上线动车组的既有运行规律的相关数据为初始值, 计算后续高级检修具体日期和统计时间段内的高级检修量, 得到上线动车组的高级检修总量。针对尚未投入使用的动车组, 从宏观角度建立各个修程年度高级检修量概率计算方法, 使用积分统计方法得到统计时间段内未上线动车组的高级检修总量。将2013年实际检修计划和2015年预测计划的总高级检修量进行归一化处理, 进行了相关比较与误差计算。计算结果表明: 当基准动车组为670组, 上线日均走行公里在1 000~3 000 km, 计算周期为180 d时, 2015年归一化数据与2013年归一化数据的相对误差为-2.86%, 三、四级检修的相对误差分别为-0.23%、9.24%, 误差在有效范围之内, 方法有效。Abstract: To forecast the senior overhaul amounts of all EMUs in arbitrary time period accurately and efficiently, a forecast method of annual senior overhaul amount for EMU was put out.The relative data of existing running rule of EMU on line was taken as initial value, the concrete dates of subsequent senior overhaul and the senior overhaul amounts during the statistical period were calculated, and the total senior overhaul amounts of all EMUs on line were obtained.For the EMUs which were not put into use, the probability calculation method of annual senior overhaul amounts for different overhaul levels were built from macro perspective, and the total overhaul amounts of all EMUs which were not put into use during the statistical period were obtained by using integral statistical method.The total senior overhaul amounts of actual overhaul plan in 2013 and predictive overhaul plan in 2015 were calculated through normalization processing, and correlative comparison and error calculation were carried out.Calculation result shows that when the standard amount of EMU is 670, the day-average mileage on line is from 1 000 km to 3 000 km, and calculation period is 180 d, the relative error of unitary data in 2015 and 2013 is-2.86%, and the relative errors of three-level and four-level overhauls are-0.23% and 9.24% respectively, the errors are within the effective range, and the proposed method is effective.
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Key words:
- railway transportation /
- EMU /
- information system /
- senior overhaul /
- forecast method
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