-
摘要: 为准确、高效地预测任意时间段内的所有动车组高级检修量, 提出了一种动车组年度高级检修量预测方法。以上线动车组的既有运行规律的相关数据为初始值, 计算后续高级检修具体日期和统计时间段内的高级检修量, 得到上线动车组的高级检修总量。针对尚未投入使用的动车组, 从宏观角度建立各个修程年度高级检修量概率计算方法, 使用积分统计方法得到统计时间段内未上线动车组的高级检修总量。将2013年实际检修计划和2015年预测计划的总高级检修量进行归一化处理, 进行了相关比较与误差计算。计算结果表明: 当基准动车组为670组, 上线日均走行公里在1 000~3 000 km, 计算周期为180 d时, 2015年归一化数据与2013年归一化数据的相对误差为-2.86%, 三、四级检修的相对误差分别为-0.23%、9.24%, 误差在有效范围之内, 方法有效。Abstract: To forecast the senior overhaul amounts of all EMUs in arbitrary time period accurately and efficiently, a forecast method of annual senior overhaul amount for EMU was put out.The relative data of existing running rule of EMU on line was taken as initial value, the concrete dates of subsequent senior overhaul and the senior overhaul amounts during the statistical period were calculated, and the total senior overhaul amounts of all EMUs on line were obtained.For the EMUs which were not put into use, the probability calculation method of annual senior overhaul amounts for different overhaul levels were built from macro perspective, and the total overhaul amounts of all EMUs which were not put into use during the statistical period were obtained by using integral statistical method.The total senior overhaul amounts of actual overhaul plan in 2013 and predictive overhaul plan in 2015 were calculated through normalization processing, and correlative comparison and error calculation were carried out.Calculation result shows that when the standard amount of EMU is 670, the day-average mileage on line is from 1 000 km to 3 000 km, and calculation period is 180 d, the relative error of unitary data in 2015 and 2013 is-2.86%, and the relative errors of three-level and four-level overhauls are-0.23% and 9.24% respectively, the errors are within the effective range, and the proposed method is effective.
-
Key words:
- railway transportation /
- EMU /
- information system /
- senior overhaul /
- forecast method
-
[1] 刘刚, 王华胜, 文礼. 高速列车修程修制技术[J]. 中国铁路, 2010 (12): 62-66. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-683X.2010.12.015LIU Gang, WANG Hua-sheng, WEN Li. High-speed train repair process and system technologies[J]. Chinese Railways, 2010 (12): 62-66. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-683X.2010.12.015 [2] 刘丽影, 刘继刚, 刘继. 我国高速动车组检修制度[J]. 同济大学学报: 自然科学版, 2001, 29 (8): 121-124. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TJDZ200108023.htmLIU Li-ying, LIU Ji-gang, LIU Ji. Study on maintenance system of electric multiple unit[J]. Journal of Tongji University: Natural Science, 2001, 29 (8): 121-124. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TJDZ200108023.htm [3] 韩增力. 关于动车组检修性能的探讨[J]. 铁道机车车辆, 2011, 31 (3): 90-92. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDJC201103030.htmHAN Zeng-li. Analysis of EMU maintenance performance[J]. Railway Locomotive and Car, 2011, 31 (3): 90-92. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDJC201103030.htm [4] 吴庄胜, 赵清, 王伯铭. 高速列车运用检修及动车段的设计研究[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2006, 32 (3): 277-282. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XNJT703.008.htmWU Zhuang-sheng, ZHAO Qing, WANG Bo-ming. Operation and maintenance of high speed trains[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2006, 32 (3): 277-282. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XNJT703.008.htm [5] 匡双芹. 动车组检修基地与动车检修分析[J]. 产业与科技论坛, 2011, 10 (2): 90-91. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5641.2011.02.054KUANG Shuang-qin. Maintenance bases and maintenance analysis of EMU[J]. Industrial and Science Tribune, 2011, 10 (2): 90-91. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5641.2011.02.054 [6] 张建成. 用机车当量公里概念确定机车检修周期[J]. 铁道机车车辆工人, 2005 (6): 10-12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-6042.2005.06.004ZHANG Jian-cheng. Deciding the maintenance cycle of locomotive by equivalent kilometers[J]. Railway Locomotive and Rolling Stock Workers, 2005 (6): 10-12. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-6042.2005.06.004 [7] 赵中喜. 电力机车当量公里数学模型研究[J]. 铁道机车车辆, 2005, 25 (增): 46-47. https://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGTD200511002012.htmZHAO Zhong-xi. Study of mathematical model on electric locomotive equivalent kilometers[J]. Railway Locomotive and Car, 2005, 25 (S): 46-47. (in Chinese). https://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGTD200511002012.htm [8] 王锐锋, 罗扬, 阎军, 等. 基于人工神经网络的机车当量模型的研究[J]. 内燃机车, 2008 (3): 11-14. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LRJX200803002.htmWANG Rui-feng, LUO Yang, YAN Jun, et al. Study of locomotive equivalent model based on artificial neural network[J]. Diesel Locomotives, 2008 (3): 11-14. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LRJX200803002.htm [9] 齐金平, 宋薇, 李宏亮, 等. 基于遗传算法的二元决策树方法在机车当量公里数学模型中的应用研究[J]. 内燃机车, 2010 (2): 13-15, 19. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LRJX201002005.htmQI Jin-ping, SONG Wei, LI Hong-liang, et al. Application of genetic algorithm-based binary decision tree method to mathematical model for equivalent locomotive running kilometers[J]. Diesel Locomotives, 2010 (2): 13-15, 19. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LRJX201002005.htm [10] HUANG Hong-zhong, TONG Xin, ZUO Ming-jian. Posbist fault tree analysis of coherent systems[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2004, 84 (2): 141-148. [11] 齐金平, 史亚娟, 杨团名. 基于模糊故障树的铁路机车检修周期预测研究[J]. 兰州交通大学学报, 2010, 29 (3): 62-66. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LZTX201003014.htmQI Jin-ping, SHI Ya-juan, YANG Tuan-ming. Study of forecast for railway locomotive overhaul cycle on fuzzy fault tree[J]. Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 2010, 29 (3): 62-66. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LZTX201003014.htm [12] BAE C, KOO T, SON Y, et al. A study on reliability centered maintenance planning of a standard electric motor unit subsystem using computational techniques[J]. Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, 2009, 23 (4): 1157-1168. [13] 张才春, 陈建华, 花伟. 基于不同检修能力的动车组运用计划研究[J]. 中国铁道科学, 2010, 31 (5): 130-133. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTK201005024.htmZHANG Cai-chun, CHEN Jian-hua, HUA Wei. Research on the EMU operation plan based on different maintenance capacity[J]. China Railway Science, 2010, 31 (5): 130-133. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTK201005024.htm [14] 史峰, 周文梁, 郁宇卫, 等. 客运专线动车组运用计划优化模型与算法[J]. 铁道学报, 2011, 33 (1): 8-13. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDXB201101004.htmSHI Feng, ZHOU Wen-liang, YU Yu-wei, et al. Optimized model and algorithm of motor train-sets scheduling for dedicated passenger lines[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2011, 33 (1): 8-13. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDXB201101004.htm [15] 王莹, 刘军, 苗建瑞. 基于列生成算法的动车组检修计划优化[J]. 中国铁道科学, 2010, 31 (2): 115-120. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTK201002026.htmWANG Ying, LIU Jun, MIAO Jian-rui. Column generation algorithms based optimization method for maintenance scheduling of multiple unit[J]. China Railway Science, 2010, 31 (2): 115-120. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTK201002026.htm [16] 王忠凯, 史天运, 张惟皎, 等. 动车组运用和检修计划一体化编制模型及算法[J]. 中国铁道科学, 2012, 33 (3): 102-108. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTK201203018.htmWANG Zhong-kai, SHI Tian-yun, ZHANG Wei-jiao, et al. Model and algorithm for the integrative scheduling of EMU utilization plan and maintenance plan[J]. China Railway Science, 2012, 33 (3): 102-108. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTK201203018.htm [17] 陈彦. 动车组高级修检修计划编制模型与算法[J]. 铁路计算机应用, 2013, 22 (1): 22-24. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TLJS201301009.htmCHEN Yan. Model and algorithm for making overhaul plan of EMUs[J]. Railway Computer Application, 2013, 22 (1): 22-24. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TLJS201301009.htm -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(4) / 表(1)
计量
- 文章访问数: 748
- HTML全文浏览量: 131
- PDF下载量: 2344
- 被引次数: 0
