集装箱班轮公司航次运力销售过程优化模型

殷明; 时恒; 金甲焕

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2015.02.009

集装箱班轮公司航次运力销售过程优化模型

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2015.02.009

1.
上海海事大学交通运输学院, 上海 201306
2.
同济大学交通运输工程学院, 上海 201804
3.
釜山大学工学院, 釜山 609-735

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 71402096

教育部人文社会科学研究项目 14YJC630172

教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金项目 2013693

上海市教育委员会科研创新项目 14YS049

详细信息

作者简介:
殷明(1979-), 男, 江苏扬州人, 上海海事大学副教授, 工学博士, 从事国际航运管理研究

中图分类号: U695.22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-11-22
- 刊出日期: 2015-02-25

Sales process optimization model of voyage capacity for container line

1.
School of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
3.
School of Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea

More Information

Author Bio:
YIN Ming(1979-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-21-38282303, yinm@shmtu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 基于种群演变和共生理论, 采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数描述航运市场整体需求, 从顾客的购买行为出发, 以收益最大作为集装箱班轮公司的经营目标, 以基于时间序列的运力与运价作为决策变量, 构建了集装箱班轮公司航次运力销售过程优化模型。运用Taylor公式与最小二乘法等代数变换手段将非线性规划问题转化为线性规划问题, 对关键参数进行了标定与敏感性分析, 并利用MATLAB软件进行仿真验证。仿真结果表明: 当单个集装箱班轮公司的运力为10⁴ TEU时, 采用常规的销售策略, 集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力为7 534~9 966TEU, 获得收益为1 233 158~12 915 936USD, 采用提出的优化模型, 可售出的运力为9 915TEU, 获得收益为15 111 975USD, 收益至少提高17%;当2个集装箱班轮公司的运力均为10⁴ TEU时, 采用提出的优化模型, 2个集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力分别为9 920、9 947TEU, 获得收益分别为14 241 771、9 737 528USD, 达到纳什均衡; 当3个集装箱班轮公司的运力均为10⁴ TEU时, 采用提出的优化模型, 3个集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力分别为8 289、5 526、6 034TEU, 获得收益分别为6 755 755、6 119 906、4 377 758USD, 达到纳什均衡。可见提出的模型可描述多个集装箱班轮公司运力销售情况, 且表现出显著的优化效果。
- 集装箱运输 /
- 收益管理 /
- 种群演变 /
- 共生理论 /
- 舱位存量 /
- 定价
Abstract: On the basis of species evolution and symbiosis theory, the Cobb-Douglas production function was used to describe the whole demand of shipping market, the purchasing behavior of customer was taken as starting point, the maximum revenue was taken as the operation target of container line, the carrying capacity and freight rate based on time series were taken as decision variables, and the sales process optimization model of voyage capacity for container line was set up.The algebraic transformation means such as Taylor formula and least square method were employed to transform nonlinear programming problem to linear programming problem.The calibration and sensitivity analysis of key parameters were carried out, and MATLAB software was used to perform the simulation verification.Simulation result indicates that when thecarrying capacity of single line is 10⁴ TEU, the container line can sell 7 534-9 966 TEU and obtain1 233 158-12 915 936 USD by using the regular sales scheme.By using the proposed model, the container line can sell 9 915 TEU and obtain 15 111 975 USD, and the revenue increases by 17%at least.When the carrying capacities of two lines are both 10⁴ TEU, the two lines can sell 9 920, 9 947 TEU and obtain 14 241 771, 9 737 528 USD respectively by using the proposed model, and Nash equilibrium is achieved.When the carrying capacities of three lines are all 10⁴ TEU, the three lines can sell 8 289, 5 526, 6 034 TEU and obtain 6 755 755, 6 119 906, 4 377 758 USD respectively by using the proposed model, and Nash equilibrium also is achieved.Obviously, the proposed model can describe the sale situations of voyate capacities for multi-container lines and exhibit the significant optimization effect.
- container transportation /
- revenue management /
- species evolution /
- symbiosis theory /
- slot inventory /
- pricing

HTML全文

图 1 2002~2012年的运价

Figure 1. Freight rates during 2002-2012

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图 2 2002~2012年的运量

Figure 2. Frieght volumes during 2002-2012

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图 3 2002~2012年的运力

Figure 3. Carrying capacities during 2002-2012

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图 4 λ为3 000TEU时, R_i、s与p_i的关系

Figure 4. Relationship among R_i, s and piwhile λ is 3 000 TEU

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图 5 λ为5 000TEU时, R_i、s与p_i的关系

Figure 5. Relationship among R_i, s and piwhile λ is 5 000TEU

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图 6 λ为7 000TEU时, R_i、s与p_i的关系

Figure 6. Relationship among R_i, s and piwhile λ is 7 000 TEU

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图 7 保持s不变时, R_i、s与p_i的关系

Figure 7. Relationship among R_i, s and piwhile s is fixed

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图 8 p_i为1 200USD·TEU^-1时, R_i、s与p_i的关系

Figure 8. Relationship among R_i, s and piwhile piis 1 200USD·TEU^-1

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图 9 p_i为1 800USD·TEU^-1时, R_i、s与p_i的关系

Figure 9. Relationship among R_i, s and piwhile piis 1 800USD·TEU^-1

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图 10 单个班轮公司7个阶段的销量

Figure 10. Sales volumes of single line at 7 stages

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图 11 单个班轮公司7个阶段的运价

Figure 11. Freight rates of single line at 7 stages

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图 12 单个班轮公司7个阶段的收益

Figure 12. Revenues of single line at 7 stages

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图 13 两个班轮公司7个阶段的销量

Figure 13. Sales volumes of two lines at 7 stages

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图 14 两个班轮公司7个阶段的运价

Figure 14. Freight rates of two lines at 7 stages

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图 15 两个班轮公司7个阶段的收益

Figure 15. Revenues of two lines at 7 stages

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图 16 三个班轮公司7个阶段的销量

Figure 16. Sales volumes of three lines at 7 stages

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图 17 三个班轮公司7个阶段的运价

Figure 17. Freight rates of three lines at 7 stages

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图 18 三个班轮公司7个阶段的收益

Figure 18. Revenues of three lines at 7 stages

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表 1 不同定价方案下的收益

Table 1. Revenues under different pricing schemes

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