多年冻土区公路病害模糊专家预测方法

汪双杰; 熊丽; 张驰; 穆柯; 金龙

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.04.012

多年冻土区公路病害模糊专家预测方法

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.04.012

汪双杰^1,,
熊丽²,
张驰^{1, 2},
穆柯¹,
金龙¹

1.
中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司高寒高海拔地区道路工程安全与健康国家重点实验室, 陕西西安 710075
2.
长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室, 陕西西安 710064

基金项目:

国家科技支撑计划项目 2014BAG05B01

交通运输部应用基础研究项目 2014 319 812 170

中国博士后科学基金项目 2016M590915

详细信息

作者简介:
汪双杰(1962-), 男, 安徽怀宁人, 中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司教授级高级工程师, 工学博士, 从事公路设计研究

中图分类号: U418.6
计量
- 文章访问数: 593
- HTML全文浏览量: 60
- PDF下载量: 453
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-06-21
- 刊出日期: 2016-08-25

Fuzzy expert prediction method for highway diseases in permafrost region

1.
State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-Altitude Regions, CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., Xi'an 710075, Shaanxi, China
2.
Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China

More Information

Author Bio:
WANG Shuang-jie(1962-), male, senior engineer, PhD, +86-29-88320807, wangshj@ccroad.com.cn

摘要

摘要: 为了预测多年冻土区新建公路病害路段, 辅助设计者在设计阶段进行合理设计, 以模糊专家系统为基础提出了多年冻土区公路病害预测方法。以病害度为分析指标, 以青藏公路某一路段作为研究对象, 定性分析了道路病害的影响因子。根据实际病害数据, 将青藏公路调查路段的病害度分为3级。结合青藏公路多年年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率等病害数据, 建立了多年冻土区公路病害路段识别的模糊专家系统。运用MATLAB中的Fuzzy Logic Toolbox工具, 将各种影响因子作为输入变量, 对10组多年冻土区等距路段进行了病害度计算, 并运用SPSS软件对计算病害度与实际病害度进行对比分析。分析结果表明: 随着年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率的增大, 道路病害率上升; 计算病害度与实际病害度相关性达到0.751。可见, 运用模糊专家系统对多年冻土区公路病害路段预测具有良好效果。
- 道路工程 /
- 青藏公路 /
- 多年冻土区 /
- 公路病害预测 /
- 模糊专家系统
Abstract: To predict the disease sections of newly-built highway in permafrost region and assist the decision-makers to carry on the reasonable design at design stage, a highway disease prediction method in permafrost region was proposed based on fuzzy expert system. The disease degree was used as analysis index, a road section of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway was selected as research object, and the influence factors of road disease were qualitative analyzed. The disease degrees of Qinghai-Tibet Highway were divided into 3levels according to actual disease data. Combined with the years of disease data of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor of Qinghai-Tibet Highway, the fuzzy expert system for identifying disease sections in permafrost region was built. A variety of influence factors were used as input variables, and the disease degrees of the 10 equidistance road sections in permafrost region were calculated by using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB. The calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree were compared and analyzed by using SPSS software. Analysis result showsthat the road disease degree increases with the increase of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor, the relevance between the calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree is 0.751, so, the application of fuzzy expert system in the prediction of highway diseases in permafrost region has a beneficial effect.
- road engineering /
- Qinghai-Tibet Highway /
- permafrost region /
- highway disease prediction /
- fuzzy expert system

HTML全文

图 1 Mamdani模糊推理模型

Figure 1. Mamdani fuzzy reasoning model

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 梯形隶属度函数

Figure 2. Trapezoidal membership function

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 路基沉陷

Figure 3. Roadbed subsidences

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 路面网裂

Figure 4. Pavement reticular cracks

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 波浪、拥包、车辙

Figure 5. Wave, froth and rut

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 病害率与年平均地温关系

Figure 6. Relationship between disease rate and annual average ground temperature

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 病害率与含冰量关系

Figure 7. Relationship between disease rate and ice content

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 病害率与冻胀率关系

Figure 8. Relationship between disease rate and frozen-heave factor

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 年平均地温的模糊集

Figure 9. Fuzzy sets of annual average ground temperature

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 含冰量的模糊集

Figure 10. Fuzzy sets of ice content

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 11 冻胀率的模糊集

Figure 11. Fuzzy sets of frozen-heave factor

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 12 模糊规则库

Figure 12. Fuzzy rule base

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 13 模糊专家系统推理过程

Figure 13. Reasoning process of fuzzy expert system

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 14 D、W′与T′的关系

Figure 14. Relationship among D, W′and T′

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 15 D、X′与T′的关系

Figure 15. Relationship among D, X′and T′

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 16 D、W′与X′的关系

Figure 16. Relationship among D, W′and X′

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 17 青藏公路研究路段

Figure 17. Research section of Qinghai-Tibet Highway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 18 风火山路段

Figure 18. Road section of Fenghuo Mountain

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 19 计算病害度与实际病害度关系

Figure 19. Relationship between calculated disease degree and actual disease degree

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 影响因子划分

Table 1. Division of influence factors

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 年平均地温等级与范围

Table 2. Grades and ranges of annual average ground temperature

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 含冰量等级与范围

Table 3. Grades and ranges of ice content

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 冻胀率等级与范围

Table 4. Grades and ranges of frozen-heave factor

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 病害度等级与范围

Table 5. Grades and ranges of disease degree

下载: 导出CSV

表 6 模糊规则

Table 6. Fuzzy rules

下载: 导出CSV

表 7 研究路段指标

Table 7. Indexes of research sections

下载: 导出CSV

表 8 关系模型分析结果

Table 8. Analysis result of ralational model

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(27)

[1]	潘卫东, 朱元林, 吴亚平, 等. 青藏高原多年冻土地区不良冻土现象对铁路建设的影响[J]. 兰州大学学报: 自然科学版, 2002, 38(1): 127-131. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0455-2059.2002.01.024 PAN Wei-dong, ZHU Yuan-lin, WU Ya-ping, et al. The effect of harmful features related to frozen ground on railway construction in permafrost area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University: Natural Sciences, 2002, 38(1): 127-131. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0455-2059.2002.01.024
[2]	南卓铜, 李述训, 刘永智. 基于年平均地温的青藏高原冻土分布制图及应用[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(2): 142-148. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2002.02.006 NAN Zhuo-tong, LI Shu-xun, LIU Yong-zhi. Mean annual ground temperature distribution on the Tibetan Plateau: permafrost distribution mapping and further application[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(2): 142-148. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2002.02.006
[3]	程佳, 赵相卿, 杨晓明. 青藏铁路多年冻土区典型土样冻胀率特性研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2011, 33(4): 863-866. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201104026.htm CHENG Jia, ZHAO Xiang-qing, YANG Xiao-ming. Research of frost-heaving ratio of typical soil samples from permafrost regions of Golmud-Lhasa Railway[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011, 33(4): 863-866. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201104026.htm
[4]	霍明, 汪双杰, 章金钊, 等. 含水率和温度对高含冰量冻土力学性质的影响[J]. 水利学报, 2010, 41(10): 1165-1172. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLXB201010007.htm HUO Ming, WANG Shuang-jie, ZHANG Jin-zhao, et al. Experimental study on influences of water content and temperature on mechanical properties of ice-rich frozen soil[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2010, 41(10): 1165-1172. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLXB201010007.htm
[5]	SOUSA R L, EINSTEIN H H. Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian networks: Porto Metro case study[J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2012, 27(1): 86-100. doi: 10.1016/j.tust.2011.07.003
[6]	AGARWAL P K, PATIL P K, MEHAR R. A methodology for ranking road safety hazardous locations using analytical hierarchy process[J]. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013, 104: 1030-1037. doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.11.198
[7]	MEIDAV T. Application of electrical resistivity and gravimetry in deep geothermal exploration[J]. Geothermics, 1970, 2(1): 303-310.
[8]	LIN Sheng-pan, JING Chang-wei, COLES N A. Evaluating DEM source and resolution uncertainties in the soil and water assessment tool[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2013, 27(1): 209-221. doi: 10.1007/s00477-012-0577-x
[9]	FAYBISHENKO B. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of waterbalance uncertainty[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2010, 24(6): 939-952. doi: 10.1007/s00477-010-0379-y
[10]	CHUTIA R. Environmental risk modelling under probabilitynormal interval-valued fuzzy number[J]. Fuzzy Information and Engineering, 2013, 5(3): 359-371. doi: 10.1007/s12543-013-0150-4
[11]	FENG Li-hua, LUO Gao-yuan. Practical study on the fuzzy risk of flood disasters[J]. Acta Applicandae Mathematicae, 2009, 106(3): 421-432. doi: 10.1007/s10440-008-9305-4
[12]	周伟, 袁春, 李江风. 基于GIS的地质灾害预测: 以清江流域为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2002, 13(4): 77-82. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2002.04.016 ZHOU Wei, YUAN Chun, LI Jiang-feng. Forecasting of geological hazard based on GIS: a case study of Qingjiang River valley[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2002, 13(4): 77-82. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2002.04.016
[13]	骈龙江. 寒区岩土工程冻融灾害机理及预报模型研究[D]. 西安: 西安科技大学, 2006. PIAN Long-jiang. Study on mechanics and forecast model of geotechnical engineering freezing-melting hazard in cold region[D]. Xi'an: Xi'an University of Science and Technology, 2006. (in Chinese).
[14]	刘保国, 沈铭龙, 马强. 模糊网络分析法在公路山岭隧道施工风险分析中的应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2014, 33(增1): 2861-2869. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX2014S1038.htm LIU Bao-guo, SHEN Ming-long, MA Qiang. Application of fuzzy analytic network process in risk analysis for construction of highway mountain tunnel[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2014, 33(S1): 2861-2869. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX2014S1038.htm
[15]	李颜. 路基冻土病害地质雷达探测ARMA功率谱识别算法研究及应用[D]. 长沙: 中南大学, 2009. LI Yan. Studies and applies on geology radar detection ARMA power spectrum identification algorithm for roadbed frozen ground disease[D]. Changsha: Central South University, 2009. (in Chinese).
[16]	PELLEGRINO O. Road context evaluated by means of fuzzy interval[J]. Cognition Technology and Work, 2011, 13(1): 67-79. doi: 10.1007/s10111-010-0155-2
[17]	FAYBISHENKO B. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of waterbalance uncertainty[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2010, 24(6): 939-952. doi: 10.1007/s00477-010-0379-y
[18]	KAUFMANN A, GUPTA M M. Introduction to fuzzy arithmetic: theory and applications[J]. Harvard Law Review, 1991, 43(43): 2744-2751.
[19]	阳林, 郝艳捧, 李立浧, 等. 架空输电线路覆冰状态评估模糊专家系统[J]. 高电压技术, 2011, 37(12): 3028-3035. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GDYJ201112027.htm YANG Lin, HAO Yan-peng, LI Li-cheng, et al. Fuzzy expert system for condition assessment of overhead transmission line icing[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2011, 37(12): 3028-3035. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GDYJ201112027.htm
[20]	穆彦虎, 马巍, 牛富俊, 等. 多年冻土区道路工程病害类型及特征研究[J]. 防灾减灾工程学报, 2014, 34(3): 259-267. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZXK201403001.htm MU Yan-hu, MA Wei, NIU Fu-jun, et al. Study on geotechnical hazards to roadway engineering in permafrost regions[J]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2014, 34(3): 259-267. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZXK201403001.htm
[21]	边疆, 寇丽娜, 绽蓓蕾. 青藏高原多年冻土区冻害类型及防治[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2011, 22(3): 129-133. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2011.03.027 BIAN Jiang, KOU Li-na, ZHAN Bei-lei. The classification of frozen hazards and protecting approach of permafrost region in Tibetan Plateau permafrost region[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2011, 22(3): 129-133. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2011.03.027
[22]	阮国锋, 张建明, 柴明堂. 气候变化情景下青藏工程走廊融沉灾害风险性区划研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(4): 811-817. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201404006.htm RUAN Guo-feng, ZHANG Jian-ming, CHAI Ming-tang. Risk division of thaw settlement hazard along Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor under climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(4): 811-817. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201404006.htm
[23]	银英姿. 内蒙古季节冻土区地基土冻胀性研究[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2008, 36(9): 3840-3841, 3847. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2008.09.146 YIN Ying-zi. Study on the froze-expand performance of the soil in construction ground in seasonal frost region of Inner Mongolia[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2008, 36(9): 3840-3841, 3847. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2008.09.146
[24]	郑波, 张建明, 马小杰, 等. 高温-高含冰量冻土压缩变形特性研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2009, 28(增1): 3063-3069. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX2009S1072.htm ZHENG Bo, ZHANG Jian-ming, MA Xiao-jie, et al. Study on compression deformation of warm and ice-enriched frozen soil[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2009, 28(S1): 3063-3069. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX2009S1072.htm
[25]	钟敏辉, 王少斌. 季节性冻土路基冻胀性分析及治理措施[J]. 铁道建筑, 2009(4): 96-98. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDJZ200904032.htm ZHONG Min-hui, WANG Shao-bin. The seasonal frozen subgrade frost heave analysis and control measures[J]. Railway Engineering, 2009(4): 96-98. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDJZ200904032.htm
[26]	NELSON F E, ANISIMOV O A, SHIKLOMANOV N I. Climate change and hazard zonation in the Circum-Arctic permafrost regions[J]. Natural Hazards, 2002, 26(3): 203-225. doi: 10.1023/A:1015612918401
[27]	程国栋. 大比例尺多年冻土含冰量图的编制原则[J]. 冰川冻土, 1981, 3(3): 53-57. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT198103007.htm CHENG Guo-dong. Principle of compiling ice content maps at large scales[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1981, 3(3): 53-57. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT198103007.htm