多年冻土区公路病害模糊专家预测方法

汪双杰; 熊丽; 张驰; 穆柯; 金龙

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.04.012

多年冻土区公路病害模糊专家预测方法

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.04.012

汪双杰^1,,
熊丽²,
张驰^{1, 2},
穆柯¹,
金龙¹

1.
中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司高寒高海拔地区道路工程安全与健康国家重点实验室, 陕西西安 710075
2.
长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室, 陕西西安 710064

基金项目:

国家科技支撑计划项目 2014BAG05B01

交通运输部应用基础研究项目 2014 319 812 170

中国博士后科学基金项目 2016M590915

详细信息

作者简介:
汪双杰(1962-), 男, 安徽怀宁人, 中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司教授级高级工程师, 工学博士, 从事公路设计研究

中图分类号: U418.6
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-06-21
- 刊出日期: 2016-08-25

Fuzzy expert prediction method for highway diseases in permafrost region

1.
State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-Altitude Regions, CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., Xi'an 710075, Shaanxi, China
2.
Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China

More Information

Author Bio:
WANG Shuang-jie(1962-), male, senior engineer, PhD, +86-29-88320807, wangshj@ccroad.com.cn

摘要

摘要: 为了预测多年冻土区新建公路病害路段, 辅助设计者在设计阶段进行合理设计, 以模糊专家系统为基础提出了多年冻土区公路病害预测方法。以病害度为分析指标, 以青藏公路某一路段作为研究对象, 定性分析了道路病害的影响因子。根据实际病害数据, 将青藏公路调查路段的病害度分为3级。结合青藏公路多年年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率等病害数据, 建立了多年冻土区公路病害路段识别的模糊专家系统。运用MATLAB中的Fuzzy Logic Toolbox工具, 将各种影响因子作为输入变量, 对10组多年冻土区等距路段进行了病害度计算, 并运用SPSS软件对计算病害度与实际病害度进行对比分析。分析结果表明: 随着年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率的增大, 道路病害率上升; 计算病害度与实际病害度相关性达到0.751。可见, 运用模糊专家系统对多年冻土区公路病害路段预测具有良好效果。
- 道路工程 /
- 青藏公路 /
- 多年冻土区 /
- 公路病害预测 /
- 模糊专家系统
Abstract: To predict the disease sections of newly-built highway in permafrost region and assist the decision-makers to carry on the reasonable design at design stage, a highway disease prediction method in permafrost region was proposed based on fuzzy expert system. The disease degree was used as analysis index, a road section of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway was selected as research object, and the influence factors of road disease were qualitative analyzed. The disease degrees of Qinghai-Tibet Highway were divided into 3levels according to actual disease data. Combined with the years of disease data of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor of Qinghai-Tibet Highway, the fuzzy expert system for identifying disease sections in permafrost region was built. A variety of influence factors were used as input variables, and the disease degrees of the 10 equidistance road sections in permafrost region were calculated by using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB. The calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree were compared and analyzed by using SPSS software. Analysis result showsthat the road disease degree increases with the increase of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor, the relevance between the calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree is 0.751, so, the application of fuzzy expert system in the prediction of highway diseases in permafrost region has a beneficial effect.
- road engineering /
- Qinghai-Tibet Highway /
- permafrost region /
- highway disease prediction /
- fuzzy expert system

HTML全文

图 1 Mamdani模糊推理模型

Figure 1. Mamdani fuzzy reasoning model

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图 2 梯形隶属度函数

Figure 2. Trapezoidal membership function

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图 3 路基沉陷

Figure 3. Roadbed subsidences

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图 4 路面网裂

Figure 4. Pavement reticular cracks

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图 5 波浪、拥包、车辙

Figure 5. Wave, froth and rut

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图 6 病害率与年平均地温关系

Figure 6. Relationship between disease rate and annual average ground temperature

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图 7 病害率与含冰量关系

Figure 7. Relationship between disease rate and ice content

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图 8 病害率与冻胀率关系

Figure 8. Relationship between disease rate and frozen-heave factor

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图 9 年平均地温的模糊集

Figure 9. Fuzzy sets of annual average ground temperature

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图 10 含冰量的模糊集

Figure 10. Fuzzy sets of ice content

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图 11 冻胀率的模糊集

Figure 11. Fuzzy sets of frozen-heave factor

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图 12 模糊规则库

Figure 12. Fuzzy rule base

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图 13 模糊专家系统推理过程

Figure 13. Reasoning process of fuzzy expert system

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图 14 D、W′与T′的关系

Figure 14. Relationship among D, W′and T′

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图 15 D、X′与T′的关系

Figure 15. Relationship among D, X′and T′

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图 16 D、W′与X′的关系

Figure 16. Relationship among D, W′and X′

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图 17 青藏公路研究路段

Figure 17. Research section of Qinghai-Tibet Highway

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图 18 风火山路段

Figure 18. Road section of Fenghuo Mountain

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图 19 计算病害度与实际病害度关系

Figure 19. Relationship between calculated disease degree and actual disease degree

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表 1 影响因子划分

Table 1. Division of influence factors

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表 2 年平均地温等级与范围

Table 2. Grades and ranges of annual average ground temperature

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表 3 含冰量等级与范围

Table 3. Grades and ranges of ice content

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表 4 冻胀率等级与范围

Table 4. Grades and ranges of frozen-heave factor

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表 5 病害度等级与范围

Table 5. Grades and ranges of disease degree

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表 6 模糊规则

Table 6. Fuzzy rules

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表 7 研究路段指标

Table 7. Indexes of research sections

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表 8 关系模型分析结果

Table 8. Analysis result of ralational model

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