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摘要: 为了研究中国煤炭运输网络的演变规律和内在作用机制, 借鉴复杂网络的建模思想, 提出了综合煤炭价格成本和运输成本选择机制的煤炭运输网络演化模型, 并通过调节模型参数, 分析了其对网络特性的影响; 为反映煤炭价格动态波动对节点选择的影响, 构建了服务于演化模型的煤炭价格波动函数; 采用1998年中国煤炭运输数据进行仿真计算, 并将仿真结果与2016年中国煤炭运输网络特性进行对比, 以验证提出的煤炭运输网络演化模型的合理性。研究结果表明: 节点强度比节点度更适合用于分析中国煤炭运输网络特性; 中国煤炭运输网络为异配网络, 移走少数高强度节点会严重影响网络的连通性, 增加煤炭运输进口节点会减小移走少数高强度节点对网络的影响; 增加煤炭运输出口节点能提高中国煤炭运输网络的可靠性, 能大大提高山东、辽宁等地区的港口潜力, 带动地区经济发展; 增加煤炭运输进口节点会使中国东南部沿海地区和中部地区成为关键节点, 也能提高中国煤炭运输网络的可靠性, 但网络抗毁性会减弱, 网络中关键节点与非关键节点连接的倾向性会逐渐减弱, 网络的传递性和紧密程度表现为先升高后降低的趋势。可见, 在增加煤炭运输进出口节点的同时, 应加强对煤炭运输网络的整体规划和对枢纽地区的建设和管理, 合理引导煤炭运输资源配置, 以提高中国煤炭运输网络的整体性能。Abstract: To investigate the evolution rules and intrinsic mechanisms of coal transportation network of China, a coal transportation network evolution model based on the coal price cost and transportation cost selection mechanism was proposed referring to the modeling ideas of complex networks. Through adjusting the model parameters, the influences of model parameters on the network characteristics were analyzed. To reflect the effect of dynamic fluctuation in coal price on node selection, a coal price fluctuation function was constructed to serve the evolution model. The simulating calculation was conducted through the coal transportation data of China in 1998, and the simulation results were compared with the coal transportation network characteristics of China in 2016 to verify the rationality of the proposed coal transportation network evolution model. Research result shows that the node strength is more suitable for analyzing the characteristics of coal transportation network of China than the node degree. The coal transportation network of China is a heterogeneous network. Removing a few nodes with high strength will severely affect the network connectivity. Increasing importing nodes of coal transportation will reduce the impact of removing a few nodes with high strength on the network. Increasing exporting nodes of coal transportation can enhance the reliability of coal transportation network of China, improve the potential of ports in the areas such as Shandong and Liaoning, and drive the regional economic development. Increasing importing nodes of coal transportation can make the southeast coast region and central region of China critical nodes, and also enhance the reliability of coal transportation network of China, but will weaken the network invulnerability and the tendency of critical nodes connecting with non-critical nodes. The transmission and tightness of network will show a tendency of increasing first and then decreasing. Thus, when increasing importing and exporting nodes of coal transportation, the overall planning of coal transportation network and the construction and management of hub areas should be strengthened. The coal transportation resource allocation should be rationally guided, so as to improve the overall performance of coal transportation network of China.
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图 2 2007~2016年中国煤炭运输量
Figure 2. Coal transportation volumes of China from 2007 to 2016
图 3 2007~2016年中国煤炭供需剩余、出口煤炭运输量差与煤炭供需剩余差
Figure 3. Supply and demand surpluses of coal, transportation volume differences of exporting coal and differences of supply and demand surplus of China from 2007 to 2016
图 4 2007~2016年陕西省煤炭实际价格与模拟价格对比
Figure 4. Comparison of actual and simulated coal prices of Shaanxi Province from 2007 to 2016
图 5 模拟的节点累积度概率分布和2016年中国煤炭运输网络节点累积度概率分布
Figure 5. Node cumulative degree probability distributions of simulation and coal transportation network of China in 2016
图 6 模拟的节点强度概率分布和2016年中国煤炭运输网络节点强度概率分布
Figure 6. Node strength probability distributions of simulation and coal transportation network of China in 2016
图 7 模拟所得中国煤炭运输网络
Figure 7. Coal transportation network of China obtained from simulation
图 8 不同参数临界值下的演化模型邻节点平均强度分布
Figure 8. Distributions of average strengths of neighbor nodes under different thresholds of parameters
图 9 a=0.7, b=0.8时中国煤炭运输网络节点介数中心性
Figure 9. Nodal betweenness centralities of coal transportation network of China when a=0.7 and b=0.8
图 10 a=0.7, b=0.7时中国煤炭运输网络节点介数中心性
Figure 10. Nodal betweenness centralities of coal transportation network of China when a=0.7 and b=0.7
图 11 a=0.5, b=0.8时中国煤炭运输网络节点介数中心性
Figure 11. Nodal betweenness centralities of coal transportation network of China when a=0.5 and b=0.8
图 12 不同参数值下的中国煤炭运输网络效率
Figure 12. Coal transportation network efficiencies of China under different values of parameters
图 13 不同参数值下的中国煤炭运输网络最大连通子图
Figure 13. Largest connected subgraphs of coal transportation network of China under different values of parameters
图 14 不同参数值下中国煤炭运输网络的带权聚类系数
Figure 14. Weighted clustering coefficients of coal transportation network of China under different values of parameters
表 1 需求节点与供给节点坐标和煤炭价格
Table 1. Coordinates of demand and supply nodes and coal prices
供需节点 节点坐标(Xi, Yi) 煤炭价格(1998) / (元·t-1) 煤炭运出量(1998) /104 t 煤炭运出量(1997) /104 t 北京 (116.40, 39.90) 111 547 691 天津 (117.20, 39.12) 123 51 37 河北 (114.52, 38.05) 133 3 646 4 271 山西 (112.55, 37.87) 98 19 972 22 174 内蒙古 (111.73, 40.83) 121 4 327 4 825 辽宁 (123.43, 41.80) 131 2 954 3 118 吉林 (125.32, 43.90) 122 1 604 1 849 黑龙江 (126.53, 45.80) 111 5 589 6 911 上海 (121.47, 31.23) 232 18 55 江苏 (118.78, 32.07) 323 1 192 1 356 浙江 (120.15, 30.28) 333 29 53 安徽 (117.25, 31.83) 222 3 337 3 255 福建 (119.30, 26.08) 323 401 382 江西 (115.85, 28.68) 321 842 863 山东 (116.98, 36.67) 212 3 858 3 631 河南 (113.62, 34.75) 164 5 290 5 706 湖北 (114.30, 30.60) 212 17 37 湖南 (112.93, 28.23) 222 1 057 1 223 广东 (113.27, 23.13) 341 474 505 广西 (108.37, 22.82) 424 350 386 海南 (110.32, 20.03) 513 4 5 重庆 (106.55, 29.57) 123 888 四川 (104.07, 30.67) 211 1 530 2 748 贵州 (106.63, 26.65) 102 1 552 1 316 云南 (102.72, 25.05) 222 620 664 陕西 (108.93, 34.27) 107 1 263 1 846 甘肃 (103.82, 36.07) 200 650 711 青海 (101.78, 36.62) 248 100 121 宁夏 (106.28, 38.47) 248 1 076 1 147 新疆 (87.62, 43.82) 300 457 459 
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表 2 模型模拟与2016中国年煤炭运输网络运输量差值
Table 2. Differences of traffic volumes between model simulation and coal transportation network of China in 2016
节点对 新疆—云南 内蒙古—黑龙江 陕西—湖北 河南—福建 广西—云南 煤炭运输网络运输量差值/104 t -2 5 5 2 -3 差值占实际线路运输量的比例/% -2.76 1.03 1.96 2.55 -2.30
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表 3 a、b取值不同时代表的含义
Table 3. Represented implications of a and b when given different values
a、b取值 含义 a=0.7, b=0.8 中国现实煤炭运输网络 a=0.7, b=0.7 保持煤炭运输进口节点不变, 增加煤炭运输出口节点 a=0.5, b=0.8 保持煤炭运输出口节点不变, 增加煤炭运输进口节点
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