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摘要: 为了研究中国民航空中交通管制(简称“空管”)发展演化特征, 建立了空管发展评价指标体系, 收集了航空器数量、运输飞机数量、旅客人数、旅客周转量、航线数量、通航城市、运输总周转量和飞行事故总数共8项指标1950~2018年的数据; 对指标进行了相关性检验后, 去除2项冗余指标, 对保留的6项指标进行标准化处理, 并用熵值法计算出各项指标的权重, 最终得到一组无量纲化的数据; 利用Fisher聚类算法分析了无量纲化数据, 得到断代的时间点, 将中国空管发展大致分为了6个阶段; 通过收集中国民航发展过程中的重大事件, 对定量分析得到的结果进行了调整。分析结果表明: 中国空管的发展可以分为7个阶段, 每一阶段都有其特有的发展特征; 通过7个阶段的发展和演化, 中国形成了军政共管国家空管体制, 即以中国民用航空局空中交通管理局为首的民航三级运行管理体制, 以中国民用航空局空管行业管理办公室为首的民航三级政府监管体制, 以及以ICAO标准为基础的民航空管技术体系; 民航空管的发展过程由管理体制和技术体系共同驱动, 应通过全新的管理体制和技术体系建立运行一体化的新一代空管系统, 提高系统的集约化程度, 并将避撞责任逐渐从地面管制员向航空器或飞行员转移。Abstract: In order to research the evolutionary characteristics of air traffic control(ATC) of Chinese civil aviation, an evaluation index system of ATC development was established. The data of 8 indexes, including aircraft number, transport aircraft number, passenger number, passenger turnover, route number, destination city number, total turnover of air traffic, and accident number, were collected during 1950-2018. Two redundant indexes were excluded by conducting correlation analysis, the retained 6 indexes were standardized, the entropy method was used to calculate the weight of each index, finally, dimensionless data were obtained. The dimensionless data were analyzed by Fisher cluster algorithm, and the time points which divide the evolutionary stages were obtained, and the evolution process of ATC was divided into 6 stages. Through the collection of major events in the development of civil aviation in China, the results of quantitative analysis were adjusted. Analysis result shows that the development of ATC in China can be divided into 7 stages, and every stage has its own development characteristics. After the seven stages of development and evolution, China has formed a military and political condominium state ATC system, including the three-level operation management system headed by the Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC, the three-level government supervision system headed by the Air Traffic Regulation Office of CAAC, and the civil aviation ATC technical system based on the International Civil Aviation Organization standard. The civil aviation ATC has been developed by both the management system and the technical system. A new generation of integrated ATC system should be established through the new management system and technical system. The intensive degree of the system should be improved, and the responsibility of avoiding collision should be gradually transferred from the ground controller to the aircraft or the pilot.
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图 13 中国空管发展水平综合评价结果
Figure 13. Comprehensive evaluation result of development level of ATC in China
图 14 误差函数与分类数的关系曲线
Figure 14. Relation curve between error function and classification number
图 16 空管发展阶段及特征分析过程
Figure 16. Analysis process of development stages and characteristics of ATC
表 1 指标相关系数
Table 1. Correlation coefficients between indexes
年份 1950~1959 1960~1969 1970~1979 1980~1989 1990~1999 2000~2010 2011~2018 V3-V4 0.983 6 0.964 2 0.998 7 0.997 1 0.998 4 0.999 7 0.999 1 V3-V8 0.991 8 0.919 6 0.964 7 0.995 8 0.981 6 0.998 3 0.999 4 V4-V8 0.978 3 0.864 7 0.955 8 0.999 5 0.989 9 0.999 1 0.999 4 
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表 2 指标权重
Table 2. Weights of indexes
指标 V1 V2 V5 V6 V7 V8 权重 0.156 0.220 0.204 0.059 0.055 0.307
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