Construction of evaluation index system for emergency rescue capacity of rail transit under serious epidemic situation
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摘要: 从铁路应急准备能力、铁路应急响应能力及铁路应急恢复能力3个方面, 构建了重大疫情下铁路应急救援能力预选评估指标; 为提高指标的科学性、可行性、独立性和可靠性, 应用传递闭包法对指标进行筛选, 构建了3个一级指标、15个二级指标、49个三级指标作为重大疫情下铁路应急救援能力评估指标体系, 并通过基于三角模糊数的层次分析法计算体系内各指标权重。分析结果表明: 一级指标中铁路应急准备能力、铁路应急响应能力、铁路应急恢复能力权重分别为0.26、0.53、0.21, 铁路应急响应能力权重最大; 在疫情期间应着重保障医护人员和物资的输送, 采取有效措施防止疫情进一步扩散; 铁路应急准备能力下属二级指标中, 应急物资指标权重最大, 为0.29, 在准备阶段应防微杜渐, 做好应急物资储备工作, 提高应急物资经费占比, 明确各应急机构权责, 及时完善更新应急预案; 运营恢复权重为0.47, 在铁路应急恢复能力下属的二级指标中占比最大, 在恢复阶段应着重提高运营列车数, 及时公开运营列车信息, 开行复工专列。该体系为提升重大疫情下铁路应急救援能力提供科学有效的参考。Abstract: The pre-selection evaluation indicators of railway emergency rescue capability under serious epidemic situation were constructed from three aspects, including railway emergency preparation capability, railway emergency response capability and railway emergency recovery capability. In order to improve the scientificity, feasibility, independence and reliability of the indicators, the transitive closure method was used to select the indicators. The evaluation indicator system of railway emergency rescue capability under serious epidemic situation was established, including 3 first level indicators, 15 second level indicators and 49 third level indicators, and the indicator weights were calculated by analytic hierarchy process based on triangular fuzzy number. Analysis result shows that, in the first level indicators, the weights of railway emergency preparation capability, railway emergency response capability and railway emergency recovery capability are 0.26, 0.53 and 0.21, respectively, and the weight of railway emergency response capacity is the largest. During the epidemic period, the transportation of medical staff and materials should be guaranteed, and the effective measures are taken to prevent the further spread of the epidemic. Among the second level indicators of the railway emergency preparation capability, the weight of emergency materials indicator is the largest with the value of 0.29. In the preparation stage, it is necessary to prevent the situation from getting worse, do a good job in emergency materials storage, increase the proportion of emergency materials funds, clarify the right and responsibility of each emergency organization, and timely improve and update the emergency plan. The weight of operation recovery is 0.47, which accounts for the largest proportion in the second level indicators under the railway emergency recovery capacity. In the recovery stage, the number of operating trains should be increased, the information of operating trains should be open timely, and the resumption special train should be set up. The system provides a scientific and effective reference for improving the railway's emergency rescue capability under serious epidemic situations.
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图 1 基于传递闭包法的评估指标确定方法
Figure 1. Determination method of assessment indexes based on transitive closure method
图 2 铁路应急救援能力评估指标动态聚类谱
Figure 2. Dynamic clustering spectrum of railway emergency rescue capability assessment indicators
表 1 铁路应急准备能力预选评估指标
Table 1. Pre-selection evaluation indicators of railway emergency preparation capability
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标 铁路应急准备能力U1 交通运输法制基础u1, 1 合理性u1, 1, 1 内容完整性u1, 1, 2 应急物资u1, 2 物资储备的数量u1, 2, 1 物资种类的完备性u1, 2, 2 应急物资经费占正常开支的比例u1, 2, 3 应急预案u1, 3 应急工作流程的完整性u1, 3, 1 应对疫情的针对性u1, 3, 2 预案要素数量u1, 3, 3 预案时效性u1, 3, 4 措施实施有效性u1, 3, 5 应急机构u1, 4 应急工作明确性u1, 4, 1 应对疫情措施合理性u1, 4, 2 部门之间协调性u1, 4, 3 参与部门完整性u1, 4, 4 职工应急培训宣传u1, 5 内容丰富性u1, 5, 1 宣传培训的有效性u1, 5, 2 宣传培训涉及人员范围u1, 5, 3 日常演练频率u1, 5, 4 培训的频率u1, 5, 5 
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表 2 铁路应急响应能力预选评估指标
Table 2. Pre-selection evaluation indicators of railway emergency response capability
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标 铁路应急响应能力U2 救援队伍u2, 1 救援人员数量u2, 1, 1 救援人员平均工龄u2, 1, 2 赶赴现场平均速度u2, 1, 3 职工健康防护u2, 2 心理咨询服务频次u2, 2, 1 防疫物品发放的及时性u2, 2, 2 动态调整上岗人员数量u2, 2, 3 公寓、职工食堂的日常消杀次数u2, 2, 4 调度所、信息所等隔离封闭管理程度u2, 2, 5 加强主要行车人员防护u2, 2, 6 运力保障能力u2, 3 运输医护人员的数量u2, 3, 1 运输物资的数量u2, 3, 2 物资调配平均速度u2, 3, 3 抗疫人员转移平均速度u2, 3, 4 救援通道顺畅度u2, 3, 5 信息公开u2, 4 查询确诊人员乘坐列车信息的高效性u2, 4, 1 查询旅客乘坐列车是否有确诊人员的准确性u2, 4, 2 列车时刻表更新及时性u2, 4, 3 退改签政策公示u2, 4, 4 疫情管控能力u2, 5 疫情响应时间u2, 5, 1 防控措施的科学有效性u2, 5, 2 疫情扩散速度u2, 5, 3 行车组织u2, 6 机车交路调整的及时性u2, 6, 1 列车运行图调整的及时性u2, 6, 2 运输组织方案精准程度u2, 6, 3 开行方案的合理性u2, 6, 4 调度安排合理性u2, 6, 5 动车组、乘务交路调整合理性u2, 6, 6 客运组织u2, 7 票务工作保障(退改签、隔窗售票)u2, 7, 1 车站测温和消毒频次u2, 7, 2 车站隔离区设置合理性u2, 7, 3 医务人员转移速度u2, 7, 4 乘车旅客间隔大小u2, 7, 5 车上发热、感染病人处置的及时性u2, 7, 6 车内空调和座椅的消毒频次u2, 7, 7 货运组织u2, 8 封存感染物品措施的规范性u2, 8, 1 应急救援物资运输量u2, 8, 2 应急救援物资快速性u2, 8, 3 救援物资的完好性u2, 8, 4 救援物资检疫消毒次数u2, 8, 5 特种车的储备量u2, 8, 6
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表 3 疫情结束后铁路应急恢复能力预选评估指标
Table 3. Pre-selection evaluation indicators of recovery capacity after epidemic
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标 铁路应急恢复能力U3 运营恢复u3, 1 复工专列的开行数量u3, 1, 1 国际班列恢复比例u3, 1, 2 铁路工程项目复工比例u3, 1, 3 疫情后大客流运力保障能力u3, 1, 4 旅客满意度u3, 1, 5 恢复运营列车数量u3, 1, 6 列车信息公开准确性u3, 1, 7 恢复运营列车信息公开及时性u3, 1, 8 事故报告u3, 2 内容完整性u3, 2, 1 评估的准确性u3, 2, 2 分析的客观性u3, 2, 3 应急救援预案有无改善u3, 2, 4 善后处置u3, 3 职工心理疏导频次u3, 3, 1 职工补助和抚恤u3, 3, 2
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表 4 不同定性描述的三角模糊数
Table 4. Triangular fuzzy numbers with different qualitative descriptions
定性描述 三角模糊数表示 两个指标同样重要, 对应急能力贡献相同 (1, 1, 2) 介于同样重要和略微重要之间 (1, 2, 3) 两个指标相比, 前者略微重要 (2, 3, 4) 介于略微重要和比较重要之间 (3, 4, 5) 两个指标相比, 前者比较重要 (4, 5, 6) 介于比较重要和明显重要之间 (5, 6, 7) 两个指标相比, 前者明显重要 (6, 7, 8) 介于明显重要和绝对重要之间 (7, 8, 9) 两个指标相比, 前者绝对重要 (8, 9, 9)
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表 5 专家打分统计
Table 5. Statistics of expert scores
指标 科学性 可行性 独立性 可靠性 合理 较合理 不合理 合理 较合理 不合理 合理 较合理 不合理 合理 较合理 不合理 u2, 6, 1 2 12 6 7 11 2 2 7 11 4 7 9 u2, 6, 2 3 16 1 17 3 0 17 2 1 11 1 8 u2, 6, 3 5 5 10 4 13 3 1 9 10 5 4 11 u2, 6, 4 4 14 2 7 7 6 8 12 0 6 12 2 u2, 6, 5 13 1 6 9 6 9 3 15 2 9 9 2 u2, 6, 6 12 8 0 8 6 6 12 5 3 14 4 2
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表 6 原始评分
Table 6. Original scores
指标 科学性 可行性 独立性 可靠性 u2, 6, 1 36 45 31 35 u2, 6, 2 42 57 56 43 u2, 6, 3 35 41 31 34 u2, 6, 4 42 41 48 44 u2, 6, 5 47 48 41 47 u2, 6, 6 52 42 49 52
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表 7 最终评分
Table 7. Final scores
指标 u2, 6, 1 u2, 6, 2 u2, 6, 3 u2, 6, 4 u2, 6, 5 u2, 6, 6 得分 0.71 0.92 0.68 0.87 0.91 1.00
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表 8 筛选后的行车组织指标
Table 8. Indicators of driving organization after screening
二级指标 三级指标 行车组织u2, 6 列车运行图调整的及时性u2, 6, 2 开行方案的合理性u2, 6, 4 调度安排合理性u2, 6, 5 动车组、乘务交路调整合理性u2, 6, 6
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表 10 铁路应急准备能力评估指标
Table 10. Evaluation indicators of railway emergency preparation capability
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标 指标 权重 指标 权重 指标 权重 效度系数 铁路应急准备能力U1 0.26 应急物资u1, 2 0.29 应急物资经费占正常开支的比例u1, 2, 3 1.00 0.11 应急预案u1, 3 0.24 应对疫情的针对性u1, 3, 2 0.47 0.08 预案时效性u1, 3, 4 0.53 0.10 应急机构u1, 4 0.27 应急工作明确性u1, 4, 1 0.41 0.08 应对疫情措施合理性u1, 4, 2 0.59 0.10 职工应急培训宣传u1, 5 0.20 宣传培训的有效性u1, 5, 2 0.36 0.16 日常演练频率u1, 5, 4 0.64 0.06
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表 11 铁路应急响应能力评估指标
Table 11. Evaluation indicators of railway emergency response capability
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表 12 疫情结束后铁路恢复能力评估指标
Table 12. Evaluation indicators of railway recovery capacity after epidemic
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表 9 行车组织指标权重
Table 9. Indicator weights of driving organization
二级指标 三级指标 权重 行车组织 列车运行图调整的及时性u2, 6, 2 0.30 开行方案的合理性u2, 6, 4 0.35 调度安排合理性u2, 6, 5 0.24 动车组、乘务交路调整合理性u2, 6, 6 0.11
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