新冠肺炎疫情对中国港航业的影响及其对策

张永锋; 龚建伟; 殷明

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2020.03.015

新冠肺炎疫情对中国港航业的影响及其对策

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2020.03.015

上海海事大学上海国际航运研究中心, 上海 200082

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 71402096

上海市哲学社会科学规划项目 2019BGL009

详细信息

作者简介:
张永锋(1984-),男,山东临沂人,上海海事大学讲师,工学博士,从事国际航运市场与政策研究

通讯作者:
殷明(1979-),男,江苏扬州人,上海海事大学教授,工学博士

中图分类号: U692
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-03-12
- 刊出日期: 2020-06-25

Influences and response measures of COVID-19 epidemic on shipping and port industry in China

Shanghai International Shipping Institute, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200082, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71402096

Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project 2019BGL009

More Information

Author Bio:
ZHANG Yong-feng(1984-),male,lecturer,PhD, yfzhang@shmtu.edu.cn

Corresponding author: YIN Ming(1979-), male, professor, PhD, yinm@shmtu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 分析了新冠肺炎疫情对于经济、贸易和产业的影响,论述了疫情条件下航运与产业的传导机制和直观影响;综合运用Granger检验、问卷调查、企业调研、专家访谈等方式评估了疫情对于港航业的总体影响;聚焦不同市场板块,分析了疫情对港口、集装箱、油轮、干散货、邮轮等细分板块的不同影响程度;结合港航业当前困难,提出了主要应对举措建议。研究结果表明:新冠肺炎疫情已经给世界经济、贸易和产业产生了较大影响,并通过全球供应链传导于航运产业;每日新增病例与波罗的海干散货指数具有较强的Granger因果关系;2020年第一季度,中国主要监测港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量分别为105 353×10⁴ t、3 766.6×10⁴ TEU,同比下滑3.5%、8.6%;疫情对于干散货、集装箱、油轮的短期冲击都较大,2020年2月,8大集装箱枢纽港口吞吐量同比下滑19.8%,邮轮客运遭受全面关闭的打击;后市复苏将是一个缓慢恢复的过程,新冠肺炎疫情已经并将持续对港航业产生较大影响;建议航运企业强化境外口岸政策与港口挂靠跟踪,防范船舶租约纠纷及法律风险,完善邮轮的疫情防控体系,推动智慧港口与智能航运发展等应对措施。
- 运输经济 /
- 港航业 /
- 问卷调查 /
- 新冠肺炎 /
- 港口吞吐量 /
- 集装箱班轮市场 /
- 邮轮经济
Abstract: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on economy, trade and industry was analyzed, and the transmission mechanism and visual impact of shipping and industry under epidemic condition were discussed. Based on Granger test, questionnaire survey, enterprise research and expert interview, the overall impacts of shipping and port industry were evaluated. Focusing on different market segments, the different impacts on ports, containers, tankers, dry bulk cargoes, cruise ships and other subdivisions were evaluated. Combined with the current difficulties of the shipping and port industry, major countermeasures were put forward. Research result shows that the COVID-19 epidemic has taken a severe recession on global economy, trade and industry, and has been transmitted to the shipping industry by global supply chains. There is a strong Granger causal relationship between the COVID-19 daily new cases and the Baltic Dry Index. In the first quarter of 2020, the throughput of cargo and containers of main monitored ports in China were 105 353×10⁴ t and 3 766.6×10⁴ TEU, respectively, and year-on-year decrease by 3.5% and 8.6%, respectively. The epidemic has a greater short-term impact on dry bulk cargo, containers and oil tankers. In February 2020, the throughput of the eight major container hub ports declined by 19.8% year-on-year, and cruise passenger transport was hit by the overall closure. The recovery will be a slow process, and the COVID-19 epidemic will continue to have a negative impact on the shipping and port industry. It is suggested that some measures are put forward such as strengthening overseas port policy and port linking tracking, avoiding ship charter disputes and legal risks, improving the system of prevention and control of cruise ships, and promoting the development of smart ports and smart shipping.
- transportation economy /
- shipping and port industry /
- questionnaire survey /
- COVID-19 /
- port throughput /
- container liner market /
- cruise economy

HTML全文

图 1 航运与相关产业联动机理

Figure 1. Linkage mechanism between shipping and related industries

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图 2 研究框架

Figure 2. Research framework

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图 3 2020年2月疫情对航运企业主要影响因素排序

Figure 3. Ranking of main influencing factors of epidemic on shipping enterprises in February 2020

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图 4 2020年2月疫情对航运企业的影响程度

Figure 4. Impact degrees of epidemic on shipping enterprises in February 2020

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图 5 中国疫情过后市场走势预测

Figure 5. Market trend forecast after epidemic in China

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图 6 2020年第一季度全球前十大集装枢纽港吞吐量与同比增速

Figure 6. Throughputs and year-on-year growth rates of the world's top ten major containerized hub ports in first quarter of 2020

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图 7 中国出口集装箱计划运力与停航运力

Figure 7. Planned and suspended capacities of Chinese export containers

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图 8 2018～2020年主干航线集装箱海运量同比增速

Figure 8. Year-on-year growth rates of container shipping volumes on main routes from 2018 to 2020

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表 1 《世界经济展望》^[18]最新GDP增长预测结果

Table 1. Latest growth forecast result of GDP by World Economic Outlook %

GDP	2019	2020	2021
世界产出	2.9	-3.0	5.8
发达经济体	1.7	-6.1	4.5
美国	2.3	-5.9	4.7
欧元区	1.2	-7.5	4.7
新兴市场和发展中经济体	3.7	-1.0	6.6
中国	6.1	1.2	9.2
印度	4.2	1.9	7.4

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表 2 Granger因果关系检验结果(一阶差分)

Table 2. Granger causality test result (first order difference)

原假设	F统计量	P值
每日新增确诊病例不是BDI的Granger原因	2.597	0.019
BDI不是每日新增确诊病例的 Granger原因	2.109	0.053

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表 3 2020年第一季度主要港口货物和集装箱吞吐量

Table 3. Throughputs of cargoes and containers of major ports in first quarter of 2020

监测港口	主要指标	1月	2月	3月	第一季度
重点港口	货物吞吐量/10⁴ t	36 130	31 160	38 063	105 353
重点港口	同比增速/%	-1.6	-4.9	-4.4	-3.5
8大集装箱枢纽港口	集装箱吞吐量/10⁴ TEU	1 467.7	9 31.6	1 367.3	3 766.6
8大集装箱枢纽港口	同比增速/%	-3.1	-19.8	-5.6	-8.6

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