Review on research of global major disaster event related port and shipping operation and management
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摘要: 为系统性梳理全球性重大灾害事件发生后港航运营管理领域的研究进展，利用知识图谱分析软件VOSviewer对Web of Science和中国知网数据库收录的全球性重大灾害事件背景下港口、航运管理领域的577篇文献进行了共词聚类分析，凝练了航运市场、港航运营管理和港航灾害防控等3个研究热点，综述了热点代表性文献的研究对象、方法和结论，分析了全球性重大灾害事件背景下港航运营管理的研究现状和研究空白，指明了若干潜在的研究方向。研究结果表明：全球性重大灾害事件背景下航运市场的研究多聚焦在货运市场，主要内容涵盖市场供求关系与运价预测、考虑风险的利益相关方交易机制设计；有关港口运营管理的研究主要涉及港口运营绩效评估、港口治理和商业模式、港口可持续发展；有关航运运营管理的研究主要关注航线网络格局变化、航运网络设计、航运服务销售策略；有关港航灾害防控的研究多聚焦在海员的压力、健康管理和心理干预等；未来的研究方向有利用机器学习、大数据预测航运市场行情，考虑市场风险因素分析港航利益相关方的博弈行为，运用区块链、人工智能、大数据、5G和数字孪生等实现港航运营管理智能化，构建全球港口、航运企业协同治理机制和班轮联盟航运网络设计与利益分配机制，讨论全球性重大灾害事件背景下海员轮班制度、日常健康管理理论、心理识别与干预方法等。Abstract: To systematically sort out the research progress in the field of port and shipping operation and management after the global major disaster event, a total of 577 pieces of global major disaster events-related literature in the field of port and shipping management were analyzed by co-word clustering analysis using the knowledge graph analysis software VOSviewer included in Web of Science database and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database. Three research hotspots, including the shipping market, port and shipping operation and management, and port and shipping disaster prevention and control, were sorted out. The research objects, methods, and conclusions of the representative literatures concerning the abovementioned research hotspots were reviewed. The current research status and research gaps of port and shipping operation and management in the context of global major disaster events were analyzed. Several potential research directions were proposed. Research results show that the studies on the shipping market in the context of global major disaster events are mainly related to the freight market, including the market supply and demand relationship, freight rate forecast, and design of transaction mechanisms between stakeholders considering risks. The studies on the port operation and management include the port operation performance assessment, port governance and business model, and sustainable development of ports. The studies on the shipping operation and management focus on changes in the shipping network patterns, shipping network design, and shipping service sales strategy. The studies on the port and shipping disaster prevention and control focus on the topics such as the seafarer stress, health management, and psychological intervention. Future research directions include the prediction of market quotations using the machine learning and big data, the game behavior of port and shipping stakeholders considering the market risk factors, realization of intelligent port and shipping operation and management by applying the blockchain, artificial intelligence, big data, 5G, digital twin, and other emerging technologies, as well as construction of collaborative governance mechanism of global ports and shipping enterprises. They also include the liner alliance shipping network design, profit allocation mechanism for alliance members, and discussion on the seafarer shift system, daily health management theory, psychological identification, and intervention method in the context of global major disaster event.
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Key words:
- waterway transportation /
- port management /
- shipping management /
- operation management /
- global disaster event /
- review
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图 1 2006—2021年全球海运贸易、生产总值及其比率
Figure 1. Global seaborne trade, gross product and ratios of seaborne trade to gross product from 2006 to 2021
图 2 港航运营管理研究热点
Figure 2. Hotspots of research on port and shipping operation and management
图 3 港航运营管理研究热点随时间的变化
Figure 3. Changes in research hotspots of port and shipping operation and management with time
表 1 航运市场相关研究
Table 1. Relevant researches on shipping market
研究范围 研究主题 研究对象 研究方法 文献来源 货运市场 供求关系 干散货市场 线性回归(Linear Regression)、格兰杰因果关系(Granger Causality)、EEMD [23]~[25] 班轮市场 季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型 [26] 一般市场 近似不相关回归(Seemingly Unrelated Regression)、向量自回归(Vector Autoregression)、方差分解(Variance Partitioning) [27]、[28] 拆船市场 南亚拆船市场 威布尔估计(Weibull Estimation)、情景分析(Scenario Analysis) [29] 货运市场 运价预测 干散货市场 向量自回归(Vector Autoregression)、LASSO回归(Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Regression)、Copula模型(Copula Model)、重标极差分析(Rescaled Range Analysis)、修正重标极差分析(Modified Rescaled Range Analysis)、比较方法、指数平滑模型(Exponential Smoothing Model)、Holt-Winters指数平滑模型(Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Model) [30]~[34] 交易机制 一般市场 案例研究法、两阶段博弈模型(Two-Stage Game Model) [35]、[36] 班轮市场 斯塔克尔伯格博弈模型(Stackelberg Game Model) [37] 金融市场 股价预测 一般市场 事件研究方法(Event Study Methodology) [39]、[40] 
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表 2 港口运营管理相关研究
Table 2. Relevant researches on port operation and management
研究对象 研究方法 文献来源 港口能力规划 数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis)、具有权重偏好的WP-SBM-DEA模型、灰色预测模型(Gray Forecast Model)、文献综述法、固定效应模型(Fixed Effects Model)、随机效应模型(Random Effect Model)、混合效应模型(Mixed Effects Model)、系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)、灰色预测模型(Grey Prediction Model)、比较研究法(Comparative Study Method) [43]~[50] 港口服务规划 系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)、双层鲁棒优化模型(Bilevel Robust Optimization Model)、基于混沌映射的元胞遗传算法(Cellular Genetic Algorithm Based on Chaotic Map)、专家调查法、文献分析法、模糊集定性比较分析法(FSQCA)、案例研究法 [51]~[58] 港口可持续发展 比较方法(Comparative Methods)、回归分析(Regression Analysis)、数学建模(Mathematical Modeling)、改进粒子群的启发式算法(Heuristic Algorithm Based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization)、船舶交通排放估算模型(Ship Traffic Emission Exhaust Assessment Model, STEAM)、博弈论(Game Theory) [59]~[68]
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表 3 航运管理相关研究
Table 3. Relevant researches on shipping management
研究范围 研究主题 问题层级 研究目标 研究方法 文献来源 航运管理 航运网络格局 宏观问题 中国国际航运网络空间格局的平均度、聚集系数、网络效率、网络连通性与抗毁性 有向加权复杂网络模型、复杂网络分析 [80]、[81] 中国进口铁矿石海运网络抗毁性、网络运输有效性规模、网络效率 复杂网络分析 [82] 全球船舶运行状态分析 AIS数据分析、比较方法 [83] 全球海上连通性分析 复杂网络模型、双重差分 [84] 全球集装箱网络中断情况分析 贝叶斯网络模型、指数随机图模型 [85]~[87] 航运网络设计 船队规划、舱位分配 平均舱位利用率最大、营运总利润最大、货物的时间价值损失与单箱碳排放量最小 多目标规划模型、NSGA-Ⅱ [88] 舱位分配 双渠道最优舱位定价策略 两阶段博弈模型 [89] 网络规划、舱位分配 港口利润最大、港口绩效最好 分支定界搜索、遗传算法、深度神经网络设计 [90] 船队设计、网络规划、舱位分配、航速优化 班轮公司收益最大 双层模型 [78] 网络规划、舱位分配 班轮公司收益最大 双层模型、用户均衡货流分配理论 [91] 绿色航运 污染控制 宏观问题 地中海地区船舶排放污染 AIS数据分析、比较方法 [92] 航运网络设计 船队规划、航速设计 各阶段的投资成本和运营成本之和最小 两阶段随机线性规划 [93] 网络设计、航速设计 班轮公司(联盟)在规划期内收益最大 优化模型 [3]、[94] 宏观问题 数字化带来的航运活动减排量 过程分析法 [94]
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