Interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality between regional logistics and economic development

CUI Guo-hui; LI Xian-sheng

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2010.05.016

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CUI Guo-hui, LI Xian-sheng. Interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality between regional logistics and economic development[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2010, 10(5): 90-96. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2010.05.016

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CUI Guo-hui, LI Xian-sheng. Interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality between regional logistics and economic development[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2010, 10(5): 90-96. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2010.05.016

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Interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality between regional logistics and economic development

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2010.05.016

CUI Guo-hui^{1, 2
,},
LI Xian-sheng¹

1.
School of Traffic, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, Jilin, China
2.
Shool of Management, Changchun University, Changchun 130022, Jilin, China

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Author Bio:
CUI Guo-hui(1970-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-431-84650198, guohuicui_128@163.com
Received Date: 2010-05-01
Publish Date: 2010-10-25

Abstract

Abstract

Logistics industry investment, cargo turnover mileage, logistics network density and GDP were taken as studying objects, the methods and models of dynamic econometrics theory were used, the interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality was empirically analyzed between logistics industry and economic development from 1991 to 2007 in Jilin Province. Analysis result shows that Jilin logistics network density on economic development has one-way causality, and economic development on logistics cargo turnover mileage and logistics industry investment has one-way causality from the view of Granger causality test. From the views of cointegration test and error correction model, there is a relatively stable long-term equilibrium development trend between logistics and economics development in Jilin Province, and the fluctuation of deviation in the short term is rectified by the rate of 8.7%.
- logistics engineering,
- regional logistics,
- economic development,
- cointegration test,
- Granger causality test,
- error correction model

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References

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Interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality between regional logistics and economic development

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