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ZHENG Shi-yuan. Intrinsic influence mechanisms of dry bulk ship investment and ordering[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2012, 12(1): 87-94. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.01.014
Citation: ZHENG Shi-yuan. Intrinsic influence mechanisms of dry bulk ship investment and ordering[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2012, 12(1): 87-94. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.01.014
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Intrinsic influence mechanisms of dry bulk ship investment and ordering

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.01.014

  • School of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

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  • Author Bio:

    ZHENG Shi-yuan (1975-), male, associate professor, PhD, + 86-21-38282337, syzheng@shmtu.edu.cn

  • Publish Date: 2012-02-25
    Abstract
  • The intrinsic influence mechanisms of dry bulk ship ordering were studied by using the theory and approach of dynamic econometrics. The dynamic relationships among new ship prices, second-hand ship prices, time charter rates and ordering volumes of three main kinds of dry bulk ships were analyzed. Analysis result shows that there are no cointegration relationships among new ship prices and second-hand ship prices for three kinds of dry bulk ships, and there are cointegration relationships among new ship price, second-hand ship price, time charter rate and ordering volume for every kind of dry bulk ship. Ship ordering volume has positive relationship with new ship price, and negative relationship with time charter rate. The relationship between second-hand ship price and ship ordering volume for Capsize ship is positive, it is negative for Panamax ship, and it is not significant for Handymax ship. Impulses from time charter rates to ship ordering volume are the biggest for three kinds of ships. Impulse from new ship price to ship ordering volume for Handymax ship is the smallest among three kinds of ships. Impulse from second-hand ship price to ship ordering volume for Panamax ship is positive, while it is negative for Capsize ship or Handymax ship.

     

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