Volume 18 Issue 1
. 
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering  > 2018  >  18(1): 139-149
MENG Xiang-hai, TAN Wei, HUO Xiao-yan. Distribution characteristics of traffic crash data of freeway based on statistics and hypothesis test[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2018, 18(1): 139-149. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2018.01.013
Citation: MENG Xiang-hai, TAN Wei, HUO Xiao-yan. Distribution characteristics of traffic crash data of freeway based on statistics and hypothesis test[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2018, 18(1): 139-149. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2018.01.013
shu

Distribution characteristics of traffic crash data of freeway based on statistics and hypothesis test

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2018.01.013
  • 1.

    School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilongjiang, China

  • 2.

    Guangxi Communications Planning Surveying and Designing Institute Co., Ltd., Nanning 530000, Guangxi, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    MENGXiang-hai(1969-), male, professor, PhD, mengxianghai100@126.com

  • Received Date: 2017-08-13
  • Publish Date: 2018-02-25
    Abstract
  • In order to analyze the distribution characteristics of traffic crash data on the basic sections of freeway, traffic crash number, fatal and injury crash number, death and injury numbers of traffic crash were taken as discrete random variables, and crash interval time and average annual crash number per kilometer were taken as continuous random variables.For discrete crash data, the sections of freeway were divided by using equally divided method, dynamic clustering method and sliding window method, and crash data were fitted by using Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution, zero-inflated Poisson distribution and zeroinflated negative binomial distribution.For continuous crash data, the sections were divided based on the toll intervals, crash data were fitted by using normal distribution and negativeexponential distribution.The goodness-of-fit tests of various fitting results were performed by using Pearson's square.Analysis result shows that in all sections, crash numbers are subject to negative binomial distribution, and in some cases, obey negative binomial distribution and Poisson distribution at the same time.Fatal and injury crash number and death number of traffic crash mainly obey zero-inflated Poisson distribution or zero-inflated negative binomial distribution.The probabilities of goodness-of-fit test are all greater than 0.05.Average annual crash number per kilometer is more subject to normal distribution, while crash interval time mainly obeys negative exponential distribution, and the probabilities of goodness-of-fit test are also greater than 0.05.The statistical distribution characteristic of traffic crash data is one of the prerequisites for establishing crash prediction model and the identification of crash black spots, and crash interval time can be used as the measurement indicator of safety reliability.

     

    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(25)
  • [1]
    ZHENG Lai, ISMAIL K, MENG Xiang-hai. Traffic conflict techniques for road safety analysis: open questions and some insights[J]. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2014, 41 (7): 633-641. doi: 10.1139/cjce-2013-0558
    [2]
    VISTISEN D. Models and methods for hot spot safety work[D]. Copenhagen: Technical University of Denmark, 2002.
    [3]
    JOVANOVICD, BACKALIC T, BASIC S. The application of reliability models in traffic accident frequency analysis[J]. Safety Science, 2011, 49 (8): 1246-1251.
    [4]
    BACKALIC S, JOVANOVIC D, BACKALIC T. Reliability reallocation models as a support tools in traffic safety analysis[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2014, 65: 47-52. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.12.004
    [5]
    孟祥海, 覃薇, 邓晓庆. 基于神经网络的山岭重丘区高速公路事故预测模型[J]. 公路交通科技, 2016, 33 (3): 102-108. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0268.2016.03.017

    MENG Xiang-hai, QIN Wei, DENG Xiao-qing. An accident prediction model for expressways in mountainous and rolling areas based on neural network[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2016, 33 (3): 102-108. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0268.2016.03.017
    [6]
    袁伟, 付锐, 郭应时, 等. 道路交通事故死亡人数预测模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2007, 7 (4): 112-116. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2007.04.023

    YUAN Wei, FU Rui, GUO Ying-shi, et al. Prediction model of death toll resulted from road traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2007, 7 (4): 112-116. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2007.04.023
    [7]
    李淑庆, 彭囿朗, 肖莉英, 等. 道路交通事故发生机理研究现状与趋势分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2014, 14 (3): 14-19. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-AQHJ201403005.htm

    LI Shu-qing, PENG You-lang, XIAO Li-ying, et al. Analysis of the mechanism of the road traffic accidents in-situ and the future research trends[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2014, 14 (3): 14-19. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-AQHJ201403005.htm
    [8]
    LORD D, WASHINGTON S P, IVAN J N. Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2005, 37 (1): 35-46. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2004.02.004
    [9]
    ZENG Qiang, HUANG He-lai. Bayesian spatial joint modeling of traffic crashes on an urban road network[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2014, 67 (0): 105-112.
    [10]
    黄合来, 许鹏鹏, 马明, 等. 道路交通安全规划理论研究前沿[J]. 中国公路学报, 2014, 27 (9): 90-97, 118. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2014.09.012

    HUANG He-lai, XU Peng-peng, MA Ming, et al. Recent theoretical researches on transportation safety planning[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2014, 27 (9): 90-97, 118. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2014.09.012
    [11]
    马壮林, 邵春福, 胡大伟, 等. 高速公路交通事故起数时空分析模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2012, 12 (2): 93-99. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1637.2012.02.015

    MA Zhuang-lin, SHAO Chun-fu, HU Da-wei, et al. Temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency on expressway[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2012, 12 (2): 93-99. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1637.2012.02.015
    [12]
    王雪松, 宋洋, 黄合来, 等. 基于分层负二项模型的城郊公路安全影响因素研究[J]. 中国公路学报, 2014, 27 (1): 100-106. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2014.01.014

    WANG Xue-song, SONG Yang, HUANG He-lai, et al. Analysis of risk factors for suburban highways using hierarchical negative binomial model[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2014, 27 (1): 100-106. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2014.01.014
    [13]
    ABDEL-ATY M A, RADWAN A E. Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2000, 32 (5): 633-642. doi: 10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00094-9
    [14]
    SHANKAR V, MANNERING F, BARFIELD W. Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1995, 27 (3): 371-389. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)00078-Z
    [15]
    QUDDUS M A. Modeling area-wide count outcomes with spatial correlation and heterogeneity: an analysis of London crash data[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2008, 40 (4): 1486-1497. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.03.009
    [16]
    AMOROS E, MARTIN J L, LAUMON B. Comparison of road crashes incidence and severity between some French counties[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2003, 35 (4): 537-547. doi: 10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00031-3
    [17]
    CHANG Li-yen. Analysis of freeway accident frequencies: negative binomial regression versus artificial neural network[J]. Safety Science, 2005, 43 (8): 541-557.
    [18]
    SHANKAR V, MILTON J, MANNERING F. Modeling accident frequencies as zero-altered probability processes: an empirical inquiry[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1997, 29 (6): 829-837. doi: 10.1016/S0001-4575(97)00052-3
    [19]
    DONG Chun-jiao, RICHARDS S H, CLARKE D B, et al. Examining signalized intersection crash frequency using multivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression[J]. Safety Science, 2014, 70: 63-69. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2014.05.006
    [20]
    LORD D, WASHINGTON S, IVAN J N. Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2007, 39 (1): 53-57. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.06.004
    [21]
    LEE J, MANNERING F. Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents: an empirical analysis[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2002, 34 (2): 149-161. doi: 10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00009-4
    [22]
    KUMARA S S P, CHIN H C. Modeling accident occurrence at signalized tee intersections with special emphasis on excess zeros[J]. Traffic Injury Prevention, 2003, 4 (1): 53-57. doi: 10.1080/15389580309852
    [23]
    阚伟生. 路侧事故预测模型的统计分析方法研究[J]. 道路交通与安全, 2006, 6 (12): 18-21. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLJA200612005.htm

    KAN Wei-sheng. Statistical analysis method of roadside accidents prediction model[J]. Road Traffic and Safety, 2006, 6 (12): 18-21. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLJA200612005.htm
    [24]
    郑来, 何莎莉. 高速公路大区段交通事故预测模型研究[J]. 公路交通科技, 2017, 34 (7): 108-114. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLJK201707015.htm

    ZHENG Lai, HE Sha-li. Study on traffic accident prediction model for long sections of expressway[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2017, 34 (7): 108-114. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLJK201707015.htm
    [25]
    DONG Ni, HUANG He-lai, ZHANG Liang. Support vector machine in crash prediction at the level of traffic analysis zones: assessing the spatial proximity effects[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2015, 82: 192-198.
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索
    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML

    Article Metrics

    Article views (950) PDF downloads(1121) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    Copyright《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering》编辑部陕ICP备05001904号-1

    Address ：Editorial Department of Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Chang 'an University, Middle Section of South Second Ring Road, Xi 'an, Shaanxi（710064） Tel：029-82334388 Email：jygc@chd.edu.cn

    All visit:Today's visit:

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd    

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return